Susana B. Adamo

Preparing for Resettlement Associated with Climate Change

Mitigation and adaptation projects will lead to increased population displacement, calling for new research and attention to past lessons. Although there is agreement that climate change will result in population displacements and migration, there are differing views on the potential volume of flows, the likely source and destination areas, the relative role of climatic versus other factors in precipitating movements, and whether migration represents a failure of adaptation (1, 2). We argue that climate change mitigation and adaptation (M&A) actions, which will also result in significant population displacements, have not received sufficient attention. Given the emergence of resettlement as an adaptation response, it is critical to learn from research on development-forced displacement and resettlement (DFDR). We discuss two broad categories of potential displacement in response to (i) climate impacts themselves and (ii) large-scale M&A projects. We discuss policy approaches for facilitating migration and, where communities lack resources to migrate, suggest guidelines for organized resettlement.

Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation.

The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models.Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites.In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing spatial population datasets and their limitations on epidemiological analyses. We review sources of detailed, contemporary, freely available and relevant spatial demographic data focusing on low income regions where such data are often sparse and highlight the value of incorporating these through a set of examples of their application in disease studies. Moreover, the importance of acknowledging, measuring, and accounting for uncertainty in spatial demographic datasets is outlined. Finally, a strategy for building an open-access database of spatial demographic data that is tailored to epidemiological applications is put forward.

Taking Advantage of the Improved Availability of Census Data: A First Look at the Gridded Population of the World, Version 4

Global gridded population data are increasingly being applied to a broad range of fields. This article presents improvements made in the fourth version of the Gridded Population of the World (GPWv4) data set. GPWv4 is a minimally modeled data set that uses uniform distribution to disaggregate census data from their native input units into a thirty arc-second global grid. Due to an increase in freely accessible census data from the 2010 round of censuses, eighty-seven countries are gridded at a higher administrative level than in the previous version, with a more than fivefold increase in the total number of census units outside of the United States. The resultant decrease in unit size has greatly improved the data set accuracy. Additionally, version 4 has expanded to include grids of age, sex, and urban–rural status. Obtaining high-resolution census data and matching census geography remains a priority for improving global gridded population data sets.

Migration and risk: net migration in marginal ecosystems and hazardous areas

The potential for altered ecosystems and extreme weather events in the context of climate change has raised questions concerning the role that migration plays in either increasing or reducing risks to society. Using modeled data on net migration over three decades from 1970 to 2000, we identify sensitive ecosystems and regions at high risk of climate hazards that have seen high levels of net in-migration and out-migration over the time period. This paper provides a literature review on migration related to ecosystems, briefly describes the methodology used to develop the estimates of net migration, then uses those data to describe the patterns of net migration for various ecosystems and high risk regions. The study finds that negative net migration generally occurs over large areas, reflecting its largely rural character, whereas areas of positive net migration are typically smaller, reflecting its largely urban character. The countries with largest population such as China and India tend to drive global results for all the ecosystems found in those countries. Results suggest that from 1970 to 2000, migrants in developing countries have tended to move out of marginal dryland and mountain ecosystems and out of drought-prone areas, and have moved towards coastal ecosystems and areas that are prone to floods and cyclones. For North America results are reversed for dryland and mountain ecosystems, which saw large net influxes of population in the period of record. Uncertainties and potential sources of error in these estimates are addressed.

Urban growth and water access in sub-Saharan Africa: Progress, challenges, and emerging research directions

For the next decade, the global water crisis remains the risk of highest concern, and ranks ahead of climate change, extreme weather events, food crises and social instability. Across the globe, nearly one in ten people is without access to an improved drinking water source. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the most affected, having disproportionately more of the global population without access to clean water than other major regions. Population growth, changing lifestyles, increasing pollution and accelerating urbanization will continue to widen the gap between the demand for water and available supply especially in urban areas, and disproportionately affect informal settlements, where the majority of SSAs urban population resides. Distribution and allocation of water will be affected by climate-induced water stresses, poor institutions, ineffective governance, and weak political will to address scarcity and mediate uncertainties in future supply. While attempts have been made by many scientists to examine different dimensions of water scarcity and urban population dynamics, there are few comprehensive reviews, especially focused on the particular situation in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper contributes to interdisciplinary understanding of urban water supply by distilling and integrating relevant empirical knowledge on urban dynamics and water issues in SSA, focusing on progress made and associated challenges. It then points out future research directions including the need to understand how alternatives to centralized water policies may help deliver sustainable water supply to cities and informal settlements in the region.

Urban Migration of Adolescent Girls: Quantitative Results from Developing Countries

This chapter assembles a quantitative portrait of the adolescent girls who migrate to the cities and towns of poor countries, drawing mainly on a large collection of data from demographic surveys and census micro-samples. For adolescent girls and young women, migration puts important urban resources within reach, in the form of access to higher levels of schooling, more varied labor markets and employment opportunities, and multiple levels of health-care institutions. But while the move is underway and until she locates a safe home in her new location, an adolescent girl can confront a range of social and sexual risks that can threaten her well-being and thwart hopes for advancement. Much of the literature on adolescent migration is focused on these risks but neglects the potential benefits. We find that in many countries, significant percentages of urban adolescent girls are recent in-migrants. In characterizing their life-circumstances, we give special attention to indicators of social isolation, the conditions of housing and neighborhood, and school enrollment. We show that adolescent girl migrants are a highly diverse group, advantaged in some respects and disadvantaged in others. Field studies in urban India shed light on the difficulties with which girls must cope as they strive to adapt to urban life.

A Quantitative Evaluation of the Multiple Narratives of the Recent Sahelian Regreening

AbstractA spatial analysis is presented that aims to synthesize the evidence for climate and social dimensions of the “regreening” of the Sahel. Using an independently constructed archival database of donor-funded interventions in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Senegal in response to the persistence of drought in the 1970s and 1980s, the spatial distribution of these interventions is examined in relation to population density and to trends in precipitation and in greenness. Three categories of environmental change are classified: 1) regions at the northern grassland/shrubland edge of the Sahel where NDVI varies interannually with precipitation, 2) densely populated cropland regions of the Sahel where significant trends in precipitation and NDVI decouple at interannual time scales, and 3) regions at the southern savanna edge of the Sahel where NDVI variation is independent of precipitation. Examination of the spatial distribution of environmental change, number of development projects, and population densi...

Población y sustentabilidad en la era de los cambios ambientales globales: tendiendo puentes entre conocimiento científico y acción en Brasil

MARTINE, George (Ed). Populacao e sustentabilidade na era das mudancas ambientais globais: contribuicoes para uma agenda brasileira. Belo Horizonte: Abep, 2012. 320 p.La preocupacion por la falta de mencion explicita de los temas de poblacion dentro de los temas principales de la Conferencia de la Naciones Unidas sobre Desarrollo Sustentable Rio +20, llevo a los demografos a elaborar una serie de documentos solicitando y justificando la inclusion de la dinamica demografica – tamano, caracteristicas, estructura, composicion, distribucion, procesos de cambio — en la agenda de la Conferencia (GLOBAL EXPERT PANEL, 2011; HERRMAN et al., 2012; MUEHLDORFER et al., 2012). El presente volumen, editado por G. Martine y co-organizado por R. Ojima, A. Barbieri y R. do Carmo, se inscribe en el marco de esta preocupacion por integrar la dinamica demografica en la discusion sobre desarrollo sustentable. Como se explica en la presentacion, las caracteristicas, estructuras y cambios demograficos deben estar presentes en el debate ambiental porque influyen decisivamente en las actividades productivas y en los patrones de consumo. Esto es particularmente relevante en Brasil, cuya poblacion ha experimentado una muy rapida transicion de la fecundidad, y una aun mas rapida transicion urbana, asi como tambien la reduccion de la pobreza y la desigualdad. Pero el libro avanza un paso mas, al proponerse tambien ‘traducir’ los resultados de la investigacion cientifica a informacion que pueda usarse para la accion, evitando la jerga academica para llegar a una audiencia mas amplia, “tendiendo puentes” entre el conocimiento cientifico y el publico, y articulando las escalas global y nacional, y las cuestiones demograficas y ambientales. El objetivo final es la difusion del conocimiento cientifico de las relaciones

Environmentally-Related International Displacement: Following in Graeme Hugo’s Footsteps

Since Graeme Hugo published his seminal paper on “Environmental concerns and international migration” in 1996, interest on the topic has been on the rise, accelerating sharply in the last decade amidst renewed concerns about the consequences of global environmental change for human well-being and population mobility, and the idea that environmental displacement has the potential for triggering governance and security challenges and conflicts. Using three of Hugo’s works for guidance, this chapter examines international environmentally-related displacement from a population perspective, addressing definitional issues, briefly reviewing recent trends and developments in conceptual frameworks and research, and offering selected examples of the inclusion of this highly conflictive topic in different policy forums.

Deforestation and local sustainable development in Brazilian Legal Amazonia: an exploratory analysis

We focus here on deforestation and human development dynamics among 211 small and medium-sized municipalities (in terms of population) in the Amazonian arc of deforestation, Brazil. First, we construct a typology of municipalities through principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Using this typology, we seek to identify changing deforestation frontiers in the study area based not only on forest loss levels, but also on sets of socioeconomic and demographic elements associated with human development. We find four well-defined macro-deforestation frontiers that exhibit distinct interactions between forest loss and human development levels. Our results show different levels of demographic and economic pressures in these frontiers while revealing some important trends such as the internalization of investments and demographic growth in the arc of deforestation. In addition, population growth and inmigration and out-migration patterns in the explored municipalities suggest a demographic complementarity among frontiers. Finally, we explore implications for public policies seeking to advance forest recovery and long-term conservation through sustainable development growth at the local and regional levels.