Susana Barreiro

Overview of methods and tools for evaluating future woody biomass availability in European countries

Key messageThis analysis of the tools and methods currently in use for reporting woody biomass availability in 21 European countries has shown that most countries use, or are developing, National Forest Inventory-oriented models whereas the others use standwise forest inventory--oriented methods.ContextKnowledge of realistic and sustainable wood availability in Europe is highly relevant to define climate change mitigation strategies at national and European level, to support the development of realistic targets for increased use of renewable energy sources and of industry wood. Future scenarios at European level highlight a deficit of domestic wood supply compared to wood consumption, and some European countries state they are harvesting above the increment.AimsSeveral country-level studies on wood availability have been performed for international reporting. However, it remains essential to improve the knowledge on the projection methods used across Europe to better evaluate forecasts.MethodsAnalysis was based on descriptions supplied by the national correspondentsinvolved in USEWOOD COST Action (FP1001), and further enriched with additionaldata from international reports that allowedcharacterisation of the forests in these countries for the same base year.ResultsMethods currently used for projecting wood availability were described for 21 European countries. Projection systems based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) data prevail over methods based on forest management plans. Only a few countries lack nationwide projection tools, still using tools developed for specific areas.ConclusionsA wide range of NFI-based systems for projecting wood availability exists, being under permanent improvement. The validation of projection forecasts and the inclusion of climate sensitive growth models into these tools are common aims for most countries. Cooperation among countries would result in higher efficiency when developing and improving projection tools and better comparability among them.

Analysis of the impact of the use of eucalyptus biomass for energy on wood availability for eucalyptus forest in Portugal: a simulation study.

In the scope of energy diversification and profitable forest resource exploitation, increasing the use of biomass residues for energy can play an important role by using local sources of energy, reducing carbon emissions and fossil-energy use, providing additional revenue for the forest sector, and also reducing the risk of forest wildfires. Regional simulators can help forecast available wood and biomass and allow evaluation of possible future conflicts of interest and their consequences for society. This paper focuses on improving an existing regional forest simulator (SIMPLOT) so that it can be applied to study research questions related to increasing the use of eucalyptus biomass for bioenergy and the related consequences for wood available for pulp. Biomass modules were integrated into SIMPLOT so that different sources of biomass used for energy could be accounted for. The updated version of the simulator was used to assess the impact of different biomass demands for bioenergy, combined with different afforestation alternatives on the wood available for the pulp and paper industry in Portugal. SIMPLOTs forecasts indicated that the eucalyptus forest is unable to satisfy wood demand even when pulp afforestation areas are doubled, regardless of the biomass demand considered. Also, the simulation results showed that, with the tested afforestation rates, eucalyptus forest cannot meet high increases in demand for wood.

From inventory to consumer biomass availability—the ITOC model

Key message The application of the ITOC model allows the estimation of available biomass potentials from forests on the basis of National Forest Inventory data. The adaptation of the model to country-specific situations gives the possibility to further enhance the model calculations.ContextWith the rising demand for energy from renewable sources, up-to-date information about the available amount of biomass on a sustainable basis coming from forests became of interest to a wide group of stakeholders. The complexity of answering the question about amounts of biomass potentials from forests thereby increases from the regional to the European level.AimsThe described ITOC model aims at providing a tool to develop a comparable data basis for the actual biomass potentials for consumption.MethodsThe ITOC model uses a harmonized net annual increment from the National Forest Inventories as a default value for the potential harvestable volume of timber. The model then calculates the total theoretical potential of biomass resources from forests. By accounting for harvesting restrictions and losses, the theoretical potential of biomass resources from forests is reduced and the actual biomass potentials for consumption estimated.ResultsThe results from ITOC model calculations account for the difference between the amounts of wood measured in the forests and the actual biomass potentials which might be available for consumption under the model assumptions.ConclusionThe gap between forest resource assessments and biomass potentials which are available for consumption can be addressed by using the ITOC model calculation results.

A multicriteria optimization model for sustainable forest management under climate change uncertainty:an application in Portugal

Abstract We propose a multicriteria decision-making framework to support strategic decisions in forest management, taking into account uncertainty due to climate change and sustainability goals. In our setting, uncertainty is modeled by means of climate change scenarios. The decision task is to define a harvest scheduling that addresses, simultaneously, conflicting objectives: the economic value of the strategy, the carbon sequestration, the water use efficiency for biomass production and the runoff water, during the whole planning horizon. While the first objective is a classical managerial one, the later tree objectives aim at ensuring the environmental sustainability of the forest management plan. The proposed framework is a combination of Goal Programming and Stochastic Programming. Depending on the decision-maker preferences, the model produces harvest scheduling policies that yield different trade-offs among the conflicting criteria. Furthermore, we propose the incorporation of a risk-averse component in order to improve the performance of the obtained policies with respect to their economical value. This novel approach is tested on a real forest, located in central Portugal, which is comprised of a large number of stands (aggregated into 21 strata), climate change is modeled by 32 scenarios, and a planning horizon of 15 years is considered. The obtained results show the capacity of the designed framework to provide a pool of diverse solutions with different trade-offs among the four criteria, giving to the manager the possibility of choosing a harvesting policy that meets her/his requirements.

Forest Inventory-based Projection Systems for Wood and Biomass Availability

Well-managed forests and woodlands are a renewable resource, producing essential raw material with minimum waste and energy use. Rich in habitat and species diversity, forests may contribute to increased ecosystem stability. They can absorb the effects of unwanted deposition and other disturbances and protect neighbouring ecosystems by maintaining stable nutrient and energy cycles and by preventing soil degradation and erosion. They provide much-needed recreation and their continued existence contributes to stabilizing rural communities. Forests are managed for timber production and species, habitat and process conservation. A subtle shift from multiple-use management to ecosystems management is being observed and the new ecological perspective of multi-functional forest management is based on the principles of ecosystem diversity, stability and elasticity, and the dynamic equilibrium of primary and secondary production. Making full use of new technology is one of the challenges facing forest management today. Resource information must be obtained with a limited budget. This requires better timing of resource assessment activities and improved use of multiple data sources. Sound ecosystems management, like any other management activity, relies on effective forecasting and operational control. The aim of the book series Managing Forest Ecosystems is to present state-ofthe-art research results relating to the practice of forest management. Contributions are solicited from prominent authors. Each reference book, monograph or proceedings volume will be focused to deal with a specific context. Typical issues of the series are: resource assessment techniques, evaluating sustainability for evenaged and uneven-aged forests, multi-objective management, predicting forest development, optimizing forest management, biodiversity management and monitoring, risk assessment and economic analysis.

Projection Systems in Europe and North America: Concepts and Approaches

Many scenario analyses have been conducted to assess woody biomass availability, although the variety of projection systems used in different countries makes the comparison of results difficult. Understanding the projection systems used for scenario analysis and their limitations is crucial for better interpretations of results. This chapter presents an analysis of the structure of the projection systems from Europe and North America that are described in the second part of the book. The chapter describes these projection systems in terms of the applicable ranges of the tools, the modelling philosophies and model types, the temporal scales, and the external variables that drive the systems. A detailed description of each projection system is found in Part II.

Future Challenges for Woody Biomass Projections

Many drivers affect woody biomass projections including forest available for wood supply, market behavior, forest ownership, distributions by age and yield classes, forest typologies resulting from different edaphic, climatic conditions, and last but not least, how these factors are incorporated into projection systems. Net annual increment has been considered a useful variable for estimating future wood and biomass supply, but it can be misleading. In Europe, two different approaches have been used: a common European-level tool for all countries (“top-down” approach); and national tools (“bottom-up” approach). The trade-offs are that the “top-down” approach produces comparable results among countries, but ignores most of the topographic, climatic, vegetative and socio-economic conditions that are unique to countries and regions. The “bottom-up” approach better accommodates national and regional conditions but at the cost of comparability among country level results. A brief discussion of how these issues are handled in North America provides insights into different approaches and their linkages to national circumstances regarding country sizes, ownerships and general political frameworks. Another challenge lies in accommodating climate change and uncertainty in projections. Finally, working closely with experts from the demand side to minimize possible misunderstandings is also required. The first step towards increasing comparability of results from country-level projection systems is to understand the differences among these tools. Only then, can progress be made in terms of harmonizing the input and output variables or even progressing towards a common methodological approach and software structure.