Susanna Mursula
International Monetary Fund
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Publication
Featured researches published by Susanna Mursula.
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) - Theoretical Structure | 2010
Douglas Laxton; Susanna Mursula; Michael Kumhof; Dirk Muir
This working paper presents a comprehensive overview of the theoretical structure of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model that is used by the IMF for a variety of tasks including policy analysis, risk analysis, and surveillance.
Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Short-Run Benefits and Potential Long-Run Costs of Fiscal Deficits | 2009
Douglas Laxton; Dirk Muir; Michael Kumhof; Susanna Mursula; Charles Freedman
This paper uses the IMFs Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model to compute shortrun multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. A permanent 0.5 percentage point increase in the U.S. deficit to GDP ratio raises the U.S. tax burden and world real interest rates in the long run, thereby reducing U.S. and rest of the world output by 0.3-0.6 and 0.2 percent, respectively.
Archive | 2013
Derek Anderson; Benjamin L Hunt; Mika Kortelainen; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Dirk Muir; Susanna Mursula; Stephen Snudden
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research. Using a 5-region version of the GIMF, this paper illustrates the model’s macroeconomic properties by presenting its responses under a wide range of experiments, including fiscal, monetary, financial, demand, supply, and international shocks.
The Flexible System of Global Models - FSGM | 2015
Michal Andrle; Patrick Blagrave; Pedro Espaillat; Keiko Honjo; Benjamin L Hunt; Mika Kortelainen; René Lalonde; Douglas Laxton; Eleonara Mavroeidi; Dirk Muir; Susanna Mursula; Stephen Snudden
The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on the G-20, the euro area, and emerging market economies, this paper outlines the theory under-pinning the model, and illustrates its macroeconomic properties by presenting its responses under a wide range of experiments, including monetary, financial, demand, supply, fiscal and international shocks.
Archive | 2010
Douglas Laxton; Susanna Mursula; Kevin Clinton; Michael Kumhof
The paper evaluates the costs and benefits of fiscal consolidation using simulations based on the IMFs global DSGE model GIMF. Over the longer run, well-targeted permanent reductions in budget deficits lead to a considerable increase in both the growth rate and the level of output. The gains may be enhanced by shifting some of the tax burden from incomes to consumption. In the short run, credibility plays a crucial role in determining the size of initial output loses. Global current account imbalances would be significantly reduced if budget consolidation was larger in countries with current account deficits.
The Benefits of International Policy Coordination Revisited | 2013
Jaromir Benes; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Dirk Muir; Susanna Mursula
This paper uses two of the IMF’s DSGE models to simulate the benefits of international fiscal and macroprudential policy coordination. The key argument is that these two policies are similar in that, unlike monetary policy, they have long-run effects on the level of GDP that need to be traded off with short-run effects on the volatility of GDP. Furthermore, the short-run effects are potentially much larger than those of conventional monetary policy, especially in the presence of nonlinearities such as the zero interest rate floor, minimum capital adequacy regulations, and lending risk that depends in a convex fashion on loan-to-value ratios. As a consequence we find that coordinated fiscal and/or macroprudential policy measures can have much larger stimulus and spillover effects than what has traditionally been found in the literature on conventional monetary policy.
IMF Staff Discussion Note: Macroeconomic Management When Policy Space Is Constrained - A Comprehensive, Consistent, and Coordinated Approach to Economic Policy | 2016
Vitor Gaspar; Maurice Obstfeld; Ratna Sahay; Douglas Laxton; Dennis P. J. Botman; Kevin Clinton; Romain Duval; Kotaro Ishi; Zoltan Jakab; Laura Jaramillo; Constant Lonkeng Ngouana; Tommaso Mancini Griffoli; Joannes Mongardini; Susanna Mursula; Erlend Nier; Yulia Ustyugova; Hou Wang; Oliver Wuensch
The recovery in GDP growth since the global financial crisis has been halting and weak. Concern is widespread that countercyclical policies have run out of space or lack the power to raise growth or deal with the next negative shock. This note argues that room exists for effective policies and that it should be used if appropriate. The most promising route involves a comprehensive, consistent, and coordinated approach to policy making. Comprehensive policy actions within a country exploit synergies, making the whole greater than the sum of parts. Consistent policy frameworks anchor long-term expectations while allowing decisive short- to medium-term accommodation whenever necessary. Coordinated policies across major economies amplify the helpful effects of individual policy actions through positive cross-border spillovers. The findings of this paper indicate that policy coordination adds particular value if the current approach falls short of reviving growth, or in the event of a further downward shock.
International Journal of Forecasting | 2012
Jaromir Benes; Marcelle Chauvet; Ondra Kamenik; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Susanna Mursula; Jack Selody
Journal of Monetary Economics | 2010
Charles Freedman; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Dirk Muir; Susanna Mursula
European Economic Review | 2011
Kevin Clinton; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Susanna Mursula