Susannah M. Sallu

Climate Science, Development Practice, and Policy Interactions in Dryland Agroecological Systems

The literature on drought, livelihoods, and poverty suggests that dryland residents are especially vulnerable to climate change. However, assessing this vulnerability and sharing lessons between dryland communities on how to reduce vulnerability has proven difficult because of multiple definitions of vulnerability, complexities in quantification, and the temporal and spatial variability inherent in dryland agroecological systems. In this closing editorial, we review how we have addressed these challenges through a series of structured, multiscale, and interdisciplinary vulnerability assessment case studies from drylands in West Africa, southern Africa, Mediterranean Europe, Asia, and Latin America. These case studies adopt a common vulnerability framework but employ different approaches to measuring and assessing vulnerability. By comparing methods and results across these cases, we draw out the following key lessons: (1) Our studies show the utility of using consistent conceptual frameworks for vulnerability assessments even when quite different methodological approaches are taken; (2) Utilizing narratives and scenarios to capture the dynamics of dryland agroecological systems shows that vulnerability to climate change may depend more on access to financial, political, and institutional assets than to exposure to environmental change; (3) Our analysis shows that although the results of quantitative models seem authoritative, they may be treated too literally as predictions of the future by policy makers looking for evidence to support different strategies. In conclusion, we acknowledge there is a healthy tension between bottom-up/ qualitative/place-based approaches and top-down/quantitative/generalizable approaches, and we encourage researchers from different disciplines with different disciplinary languages, to talk, collaborate, and engage effectively with each other and with stakeholders at all levels.

Vulnerability of fishery-based livelihoods to the impacts of climate variability and change: insights from coastal Bangladesh

Globally, fisheries support livelihoods of over half a billion people who are exposed to multiple climatic stresses and shocks that affect their capacity to subsist. Yet, only limited research exists on the vulnerability of fishery-based livelihood systems to climate change. We assess the vulnerability of fishery-based livelihoods to the impacts of climate variability and change in two coastal fishing communities in Bangladesh. We use a composite index approach to calculate livelihood vulnerability and qualitative methods to understand how exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity measured by sub-indices produce vulnerability. Our results suggest that exposure to floods and cyclones, sensitivity (such as dependence on small-scale marine fisheries for livelihoods), and lack of adaptive capacity in terms of physical, natural, and financial capital and diverse livelihood strategies construe livelihood vulnerability in different ways depending on the context. The most exposed community is not necessarily the most sensitive or least able to adapt because livelihood vulnerability is a result of combined but unequal influences of bio-physical and socio-economic characteristics of communities and households. But within a fishing community, where households are similarly exposed, higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity combine to create higher vulnerability. Initiatives to reduce livelihood vulnerability should be correspondingly multifaceted.

Questioning calls to consensus in conservation: a Q study of conservation discourses on Galápagos

Efforts to frame conservation interventions in terms of idealized outcomes that benefit both human well-being and biodiversity, and the rhetoric of consensus that often accompanies these, have been criticized. Acknowledgement of trade–offs between often incommensurable interests and perspectives, has been argued to be more democratic and transparent. This paper critically examines calls to consensus in conservation on the Galapagos Islands, where the population has been urged to unite around a shared vision of conservation in order to secure a sustainable future. Q methodology was used to examine the discourses of conservation on the islands, and to assess whether a shared vision of Galapagos is either achievable or desirable. Thirty-three participants carried out Q sorts about Galapagos conservation. Three discourses emerged from the analysis: conservation of Galapagos as an international/global concern; conservation linked with sustainable development; and social welfare and equitable development. The results highlight the subjective and political nature of the different discourses, and the paper concludes that calls to consensus or shared visions, while seductive in their promise of harmonious cooperation for conservation, can be read as attempts to depoliticize debates around conservation, and as such should be treated with caution.

Migrating to tackle climate variability and change? Insights from coastal fishing communities in Bangladesh

There is an on-going debate about climate-induced migration but little empirical evidence. We examine how climate-induced migration has impacted vulnerability and adaptation of a coastal fishing community in Bangladesh. We used household surveys, interviews and focus group discussions to compare fishery dependent households who migrated from Kutubdia Island to mainland with those who stayed behind. Our results suggest that the resettled households are less exposed to floods, sea-level-rise and land erosion than those who stayed behind. They also have more livelihood assets, higher incomes and better access to water supply, health and educational services, technology and markets. In our case study migration has thus been a viable strategy to respond to climate variability and change.

Can CDM finance energy access in Least Developed Countries? Evidence from Tanzania

Policy documents and academic literature suggest that Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) finance could complement traditional ‘energy access’ (EA) funding in developing countries, including the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Yet these propositions have not been empirically tested. This study helps fill this gap by examining constraints to CDM project passage through five stages of an idealized project development cycle (PDC) in Tanzania, and their implications for the ability of the CDM to contribute to financing energy access in LDCs. Twenty-five semi-structured interviews and documentary material were analysed using an analytical framework developed for systematic investigation of constraints. Institutional constraints such as the under-performance of Tanzanias Designated National Authority were the most often mentioned obstacles for project development. Yet non-institutional constraints such as limited energy sector mitigation potential, indigenous skill shortages, and low carbon market prices also hinder project development. Institutional constraints buttress, rather than supersede, pre-existing non-institutional constraints, and together they prevent energy projects from completing the PDC and accessing CDM finance. The number and severity of constraints suggest that the situation is unlikely to change rapidly, and that the CDM sustains and exacerbates existing global inequalities. Since traditional energy access funding is insufficient to address these inequalities, new funding and policy mechanisms are required. Policy relevance The CDM fails to fill the EA financing gap in Tanzania. This is also true for other LDCs where comparable project development challenges prevail. The CDM therefore appears to sustain uneven development patterns overlooking those most in need. Claims about its potential to enhance EA are misplaced, and the situation is unlikely to change rapidly. CDM and carbon market projects more widely will have limited ability to help financing EA in LDCs, even if the institutional setting within which they are implemented were reformed in the future. Yet traditional energy funding will be inadequate on its own. The debate over extending the CDM post-2017, when the second Kyoto Protocol commitment period expires, should be informed by honest appraisal of its merits and defects. Policy makers should revisit lessons provided by this article and wider research to help ensure that new EA mechanisms are not hampered by constraints and can benefit those most in need.

Sustainability spaces for complex agri-food systems

As a result of the complexity of agri-food systems, popularly-supported ‘win-win’ solutions rarely result in wholly satisfactory outcomes. We draw on documented cases of the introduction of agricultural input subsidies; the intensification of livestock production; and the development of genetically modified crop varieties as examples of agri-food systems in which there are multiple interconnected sustainability priorities and inevitable conflicts. Generic or narrowly conceived goals may not fully reflect the multiple and conflicting dimensions of sustainability that are relevant to such cases. There is a need to advance established multiple-win agendas, such as sustainable intensification and climate smart agriculture, to more fully reflect this complexity. We propose the use of the sustainability space concept for defining and monitoring sustainability priorities that might become the basis for effective management of complex systems. We further outline the challenge of defining and monitoring these priorities, which will require carefully designed, interdisciplinary and participatory research agendas.

From local scenarios to national maps: a participatory framework for envisioning the future of Tanzania

Tackling societal and environmental challenges requires new approaches that connect topdown global oversight with bottom-up sub-national knowledge. We present a novel framework for participatory development of spatially-explicit scenarios at national scale that model socio-economic and environmental dynamics by reconciling local stakeholder perspectives and national spatial data. We illustrate results generated by this approach and evaluate its potential to contribute to a greater understanding of the relationship between development pathways and sustainability. Using the lens of land use and land cover changes, and engaging 240 stakeholders representing sub-national (seven forest management Zones) and the national level, we applied the framework to assess alternative development strategies in the Tanzania mainland to the year 2025 - under either a business as usual or a green development scenario. In the business as usual scenario, no productivity gain is expected, cultivated land expands by ca. 2% per year (up to 88,808 km2), with large impacts on woodlands and wetlands. Despite legal protection, encroachment of natural forest occurs along reserve borders. Additional wood demand leads to degradation (i.e. loss of tree cover and biomass) up to 80,426 km2 of wooded land. The alternative green economy scenario envisages decreasing degradation and deforestation with increasing productivity (+10%) and implementation of Payment for Ecosystem Service schemes. In this scenario, cropland expands by 44,132 km2 and the additional degradation is limited to 35,778 km2. This scenario development framework captures perspectives and knowledge across a diverse range of stakeholders and regions. Although further effort is required to extend its applicability, improve users’ equity, and reduce costs the resulting spatial outputs can be used to inform national level planning and policy implementation associated with sustainable development, especially the REDD+ climate mitigation strategy.

Climate compatible development reconsidered: calling for a critical perspective

Climate compatible development reconsidered: calling for a critical perspective Lisa Ficklin, Lindsay C. Stringer, Andrew J. Dougill & Susannah M. Sallu To cite this article: Lisa Ficklin, Lindsay C. Stringer, Andrew J. Dougill & Susannah M. Sallu (2017): Climate compatible development reconsidered: calling for a critical perspective, Climate and Development, DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2017.1372260 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2017.1372260

The livelihood impacts of the Equitable Payments for Watershed Services (EPWS) Program in Morogoro, Tanzania

Research on PES programs in agro-ecosystems is recent and limited in developing countries. The authors use a multi-method, quasi-experimental impact evaluation approach to examine direct and indirect livelihood impacts of the Equitable Payments for Watershed Services (EPWS) program piloted in the Morogoro region in Tanzania. The evaluation is based on a survey of 116 program participants and 117 non-participants, 32 semi-structured interviews and 16 focus group discussions to complement the survey data. They find that, while the EPWS program incentives resulted in direct benefits, indirect benefits such as increased crop yields, higher land values, new employment opportunities, more knowledgeable farmers, improved leadership skills as well as increased trust, expanded internal and external networks and strengthened institutions were more important. The results clearly indicate the potential of PES schemes to generate win-win outcomes in agro-ecosystems, but they also call for attention to equity in the design of PES programs implemented on agro-ecosystems.

Differential livelihood adaptation to social-ecological change in coastal Bangladesh

Social-ecological changes, brought about by the rapid growth of the aquaculture industry and the increased occurrence of climatic stressors, have significantly affected the livelihoods of coastal communities in Asian mega-deltas. This paper explores the livelihood adaptation responses of households of different wealth classes, the heterogeneous adaptation opportunities, barriers and limits (OBLs) faced by these households and the dynamic ways in which these factors interact to enhance or impede adaptive capacities. A mixed methods approach was used to collect empirical evidence from two villages in coastal Bangladesh. Findings reveal that households’ adaptive capacities largely depend on their wealth status, which not only determine their availability of productive resources, but also empower them to navigate social-ecological change in desirable ways. Households operate within a shared response space, which is shaped by the broader socio-economic and political landscape, as well as their previous decisions that can lock them in to particular pathways. While an adaptive response may be effective for one social group, it may cause negative externalities that can undermine the adaptation options and outcomes of another group. Adaptation OBLs interact in complex ways; the extent to which these OBLs affect different households depend on the specific livelihood activities being considered and the differential values and interests they hold. To ensure more equitable and environmentally sustainable livelihoods in future, policies and programs should aim to expand households’ adaptation space by accounting for the heterogeneous needs and complex interdependencies between response processes of different groups.