Susanne Fahlén

Capabilities and Childbearing Intentions in Europe: The association between work–family reconciliation policies, economic uncertainties and women's fertility plans

ABSTRACT This article investigates the association between economic uncertainties, work–family reconciliation policies and womens short-term childbearing intentions in 10 European countries. I introduce the capability approach to this issue and argue that short-term childbearing intentions are an indicator of womens capabilities to start a family or to have additional children. Using data from the European Social Survey, the analysis reveals that the association between economic uncertainties and short-term childbearing intentions varies by the number of children already born, education and institutional contexts. In some countries, having a job have a positive impact on childless womens short-term intentions, while in other countries, low educated childless women out of the labour market are those most likely to intend to have a child in the near future. Other aspects of economic uncertainties, namely perceived job and income insecurity, have a negative impact on short-term childbearing intentions, regardless of motherhood status. The analysis also shows that the combination of weaker institutional support for work–family reconciliation, perceived job and income insecurity and low educational skills are associated with lower childbearing intentions, and the pattern across the 10 countries is slightly stronger for childless women. This study underscores the importance of embedding individual decision processes in a broader societal context.

Work and Childbearing Intentions from a Capability Perspective: Young Adult Women in Sweden

Since the late 1960s, female labour force participation increased substantially nearly everywhere in Europe. For women aged 20–44 years, the participation rate increased from an average of 50 per cent in 1970 to nearly 80 per cent in 2000, large cross-country differences notwithstanding (Ferrarini, 2006). High or increasing female employment rates have been seen, in turn, as the main reason for low fertility (Becker, 1991), based on the incompatibility of motherhood, that is childrearing and paid work, in industrialised societies (Brewster and Rindfuss, 2000). Indeed, the aggregate-level relationship between women’s labour force participation and fertility was negative until the mid- or late 1980s, although the causality is unclear (Bernhardt, 1993; Engelhardt et al., 2004). Then the relationship turned into a positive one (Castles, 2003; see also Hobson and Olah, 2006a, 2006b for an overview of relevant studies).

Introduction: Aspirations and Uncertainties. Childbearing Choices and Work-Life Realities in Europe

Europe is facing a demographic challenge based on the conjuncture of population ageing and a shrinking labour force that in the long run jeopardises economic growth and sustainable development. The current situation is the outcome of three trends: (i) long-term below-replacement level period fertility (that is less than 2.05 children per woman on average); (ii) increasing longevity; and (iii) a growing proportion of people in their late 50s and above in the labour force. While the latter two trends nearly equally apply to every society in Europe, cross-country variations in fertility levels are quite substantial, accelerating population ageing in societies where fertility rates have remained below the critical level of 1.5 children per woman for longer periods (McDonald, 2006; Myrskyla et al., 2009). In addressing country differences in fertility, the importance of the childbearing, female employment and work-life balance policy interplay has been increasingly recognised in contemporary scholarships of the welfare state, economics, gender and demography (see e.g. Castles, 2003; Gornick and Meyers, 2003; Engelhardt et al., 2004; Frejka et al., 2008a; Thevenon and Gauthier, 2011).

Economic uncertainty and first-birth intentions in Europe

Background: Cold-related conditions represent one of the most common causes of neonatal death in many developing countries. The effects of cold external temperatures on neonatal mortality at the onset of demographic transition recently have attracted scholarly interest. Objective: First, we aim to study the effects of cold temperatures on neonatal mortality at the onset of demographic transition, focusing on two Italian rural parishes between 1820 and 1900. Second, we aim to assess whether the effects vary according to socioeconomic status (SES), especially among the most vulnerable social groups. Methods: We apply logistic regression and discrete-time event history analysis using micro-data from parish registers and daily records of external temperature. Results: The risk of death during the first month of life varied according to external temperature’s variation and to socioeconomic status, demonstrating that neonates born to landless rural labourers generally suffered a higher neonatal mortality risk during winter and, more specifically; in case of low temperature at the childbirth during coldest months. Conclusions: The risk of neonatal death increased as external temperatures decreased. The clear influence of temperature on the day of birth suggests that low temperatures on the day of birth exerted a fundamental scarring effect on children’s survival. We also find significant differences in neonatal mortality by SES, resulting in more pronounced effects from season and temperature in rural proletarian families. The results show that during the second half of the 19th century characterised by intense socioeconomic transformations, rural proletarians experienced a clear worsening of living conditions. Contribution: The results show that during the second half of the nineteenth century characterised by intense socio-economic transformations, rural proletarians experienced a clear worsening of living conditions.

Concluding Thoughts on Childbearing, Women’s Work and Work-Life Balance Policy Nexus in Europe in the Dawn of the 21st Century

This book has addressed the interplay between childbearing and work and welfare, more specifically female employment and work-life balance policies, in contemporary Europe. Along with increasing scholarly interest in the topic, demographic and economic sustainability has been high on the agenda in European policymaking given substantial cross-country variations in fertility levels in the past decades, (well) below what is necessary for the replacement of the population (that is 2.05 children per woman) and not speeding up societal ageing. Focusing on childbearing choices (intentions mainly, but even desires), considered as influential predictors of future fertility, our research team has examined the importance of labour force participation on young women’s fertility plans in the context of increasing labour market flexibility in various work-life balance policy settings. We have studied five countries, two high-fertility and three low-fertility societies representing different welfare regime/policy configuration types. Our two high-fertility societies, Sweden and France, belong to different policy regimes, the former being the prime case of the Dual-Earner, and the latter belonging to the General Family Support policy configuration type to which even Germany, a low-fertility regime country belongs. The other two low-fertility societies we have studied, Poland and Hungary, represent the Transition Post-Socialist cluster.