Susanne Grossman-Clarke

Nitrogen Emissions, Deposition, and Monitoring in the Western United States

Abstract Nitrogen (N) deposition in the western United States ranges from 1 to 4 kilograms (kg) per hectare (ha) per year over much of the region to as high as 30 to 90 kg per ha per year downwind of major urban and agricultural areas. Primary N emissions sources are transportation, agriculture, and industry. Emissions of N as ammonia are about 50% as great as emissions of N as nitrogen oxides. An unknown amount of N deposition to the West Coast originates from Asia. Nitrogen deposition has increased in the West because of rapid increases in urbanization, population, distance driven, and large concentrated animal feeding operations. Studies of ecological effects suggest that emissions reductions are needed to protect sensitive ecosystem components. Deposition rates are unknown for most areas in the West, although reasonable estimates are available for sites in California, the Colorado Front Range, and central Arizona. National monitoring networks provide long-term wet deposition data and, more recently, estimated dry deposition data at remote sites. However, there is little information for many areas near emissions sources.

Urban Modifications in a Mesoscale Meteorological Model and the Effects on Near-Surface Variables in an Arid Metropolitan Region

Abstract A refined land cover classification for the arid Phoenix (Arizona) metropolitan area and some simple modifications to the surface energetics were introduced in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The single urban category in the existing 24-category U.S. Geological Survey land cover classification used in MM5 was divided into three classes to account for heterogeneity of urban land cover. Updated land cover data were derived from 1998 Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images. The composition of the urban land use classes in terms of typical fractions of vegetation and anthropogenic surfaces was determined from ground-truth information, allowing a variety of moisture availability for evaporation by land cover class. Bulk approaches for characteristics of the urban surface energy budget, such as heat storage, the production of anthropogenic heat, and radiation trapping, were introduced in MM5’s Medium Range Forecast boun...

Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Abstract The impact of 1973–2005 land use–land cover (LULC) changes on near-surface air temperatures during four recent summer extreme heat events (EHEs) are investigated for the arid Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the Noah Urban Canopy Model. WRF simulations were carried out for each EHE using LULC for the years 1973, 1985, 1998, and 2005. Comparison of measured near-surface air temperatures and wind speeds for 18 surface stations in the region show a good agreement between observed and simulated data for all simulation periods. The results indicate consistent significant contributions of urban development and accompanying LULC changes to extreme temperatures for the four EHEs. Simulations suggest new urban developments caused an intensification and expansion of the area experiencing extreme temperatures but mainly influenced nighttime temperatures with an increase of up to 10 K. Nighttime temperatures in the existing urban c...

Using watered landscapes to manipulate urban heat island effects: How much water will it take to cool phoenix?

Problem: The prospect that urban heat island (UHI) effects and climate change may increase urban temperatures is a problem for cities that actively promote urban redevelopment and higher densities. One possible UHI mitigation strategy is to plant more trees and other irrigated vegetation to prevent daytime heat storage and facilitate nighttime cooling, but this requires water resources that are limited in a desert city like Phoenix. Purpose: We investigated the tradeoffs between water use and nighttime cooling inherent in urban form and land use choices. Methods: We used a Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) model to examine the variation in temperature and evaporation in 10 census tracts in Phoenixs urban core. After validating results with estimates of outdoor water use based on tract-level city water records and satellite imagery, we used the model to simulate the temperature and water use consequences of implementing three different scenarios. Results and conclusions: We found that increasing irrigated landscaping lowers nighttime temperatures, but this relationship is not linear; the greatest reductions occur in the least vegetated neighborhoods. A ratio of the change in water use to temperature impact reached a threshold beyond which increased outdoor water use did little to ameliorate UHI effects. Takeaway for practice: There is no one design and landscape plan capable of addressing increasing UHI and climate effects everywhere. Any one strategy will have inconsistent results if applied across all urban landscape features and may lead to an inefficient allocation of scarce water resources. Research Support: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant SES-0345945 (Decision Center for a Desert City) and by the City of Phoenix Water Services Department. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF.

Risk and Exposure to Extreme Heat in Microclimates of Phoenix, AZ

As rapid urban development continues, the impacts of temperature extremes on human health and comfort are expected to increase as threshold temperatures of human tolerance are crossed more frequently and for longer periods of time. This study examined extreme heat as an urban hazard throughout the Phoenix (Arizona, USA) metropolitan area during a four-day 2005 summer heat wave. Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate 2 m air temperature variability throughout the region, the distribution of threshold temperatures and heat exposure was examined in 40 diverse neighborhoods. Neighborhood residents also responded to a social survey about perceived temperatures and heat-related health problems during the summer of 2005.

Scales of perception: public awareness of regional and neighborhood climates

Understanding public perceptions of climate is critical for developing an effective strategy to mitigate the effects of human activity on the natural environment and reduce human vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. While recent climate assessments document change among various physical systems (e.g., increased temperature, sea level rise, shrinking glaciers), environmental perceptions are relatively under-researched despite the fact that there is growing skepticism and disconnect between climate science and public opinion. This study utilizes a socio-ecological research framework to investigate how public perceptions compared with environmental conditions in one urban center. Specifically, air temperature during an extreme heat event was examined as one characteristic of environmental conditions by relating simulations from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model with self-reported perceptions of regional and neighborhood temperatures from a social survey of Phoenix, AZ (USA) metropolitan area residents. Results indicate that: 1) human exposure to high temperatures varies substantially throughout metropolitan Phoenix; 2) public perceptions of temperature are more strongly correlated with proximate environmental conditions than with distal conditions; and 3) perceptions of temperature are related to social characteristics and situational variables. The social constructionist paradigm explains public perceptions at the regional scale, while experience governs attitude formation at the neighborhood scale.

Simulations of the Urban Planetary Boundary Layer in an Arid Metropolitan Area

Abstract A modified version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to the arid Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan region. The ability of the model to simulate characteristics of the summertime urban planetary boundary layer (PBL) was tested by comparing model results with observations from two field campaigns conducted in May/June 1998 and June 2001. The modified MM5 included a refined land use/cover classification and updated land use data for Phoenix and bulk approaches of characteristics of the urban surface energy balance. PBL processes were simulated by a version of MM5’s Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) scheme that was enhanced by new surface flux and nonlocal mixing approaches. Simulated potential temperature profiles were tested against radiosonde data, indicating that the modified MRF scheme was able to simulate vertical mixing and the evolution and height of the PBL with good accuracy and better than the origi...

Development of a Zero-Dimensional Mesoscale Thermal Model for Urban Climate

Abstract A simple energy balance model is created for use in developing mitigation strategies for the urban heat island effect. The model is initially applied to the city of Phoenix, Arizona. There are six primary contributions to the overall energy balance: incident solar radiation, anthropogenic heat input, conduction heat loss, outgoing evapotranspiration, outgoing convection, and outgoing emitted radiation. Meteorological data are input to the model, which then computes an urban characteristic temperature at a calculated time step for a specified time range. The model temperature is shown to have the same periodic behavior as the experimentally measured air temperatures. Predicted temperature changes, caused by increasing the average urban albedo, agree within 0.1°C with comparable maximum surface temperature predictions from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The present model, while maintaining valid energy-balance physi...

The Influence of green areas and roof albedos on air temperatures during Extreme Heat Events in Berlin, Germany

The mesoscale atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) with the Double Canyon Effect Parametrization Scheme (DCEP) is applied to investigate possible adaption measures to extreme heat events (EHEs) for the city of Berlin, Germany. The emphasis is on the effects of a modified urban vegetation cover and roof albedo on near-surface air temperatures. Five EHEs with a duration of 5 days or more are identified for the period 2000 to 2009. A reference simulation is carried out for each EHE with current vegetation cover, roof albedo and urban canopy parameters (UCPs), and is evaluated with temperature observations from weather stations in Berlin and its surroundings. The derivation of the UCPs from an impervious surface map and a 3-D building data set is detailed. Characteristics of the simulated urban heat island for each EHE are analysed in terms of these UCPs. In addition, six sensitivity runs are examined with a modified vegetation cover of each urban grid cell by 25%, 5% and 15%, with a roof albedo increased to 0.40 and 0.65, and with a combination of the largest vegetation cover and roof albedo, respectively. At the weather stations’ grid cells, the results show a maximum of the average diurnal change in air temperature during each EHE of 0.82 K and 0.48 K for the 25% and 15% vegetation covers, 0.50 K for the roof albedos of 0.65, and 0.63 K for the combined vegetation and albedo case. The largest effects on the air temperature are detected during midday.

A Double-Canyon Radiation Scheme for Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Models

We develop a double-canyon radiation scheme (DCEP) for urban canopy models embedded in mesoscale numerical models based on the Building Effect Parametrization (BEP). The new scheme calculates the incoming and outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation for roof, wall and ground surfaces for an urban street canyon characterized by its street and building width, canyon length, and the building height distribution. The scheme introduces the radiative interaction of two neighbouring urban canyons allowing the full inclusion of roofs into the radiation exchange both inside the canyon and with the sky. In contrast to BEP, we also treat direct and diffuse shortwave radiation from the sky independently, thus allowing calculation of the effective parameters representing the urban diffuse and direct shortwave radiation budget inside the mesoscale model. Furthermore, we close the energy balance of incoming longwave and diffuse shortwave radiation from the sky, so that the new scheme is physically more consistent than the BEP scheme. Sensitivity tests show that these modifications are important for urban regions with a large variety of building heights. The evaluation against data from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment indicates a good performance of the DCEP when coupled with the regional weather and climate model COSMO-CLM.