Svetlana Ikonnikova

Investment Options and Bargaining Power: The Eurasian Supply Chain for Natural Gas

We use cooperative game theory to analyze the power structure in the pipeline network for Russian gas. If the assessment is narrowly focused on the abilities to obstruct flows in the existing system, the main transit countries, Belarus and Ukraine, appear to be strong. Once investment options are accounted for, Russia achieves clear dominance. Competition between transit countries is of little strategic relevance compared to Russias direct access to its customers. Comparing our theoretical results with empirical evidence, we find that the Shapley value explains the power of major transit countries better than the core and the nucleolus.

INVESTMENT OPTIONS AND BARGAINING POWER: THE EURASIAN SUPPLY CHAIN FOR NATURAL GAS

We use cooperative game theory to analyze the power structure in the pipeline network for Russian gas. If the assessment is narrowly focused on the abilities to obstruct flows in the existing system, the main transit countries, Belarus and Ukraine, appear to be strong. Once investment options are accounted for, Russia achieves clear dominance. Competition between transit countries is of little strategic relevance compared to Russias direct access to its customers. Comparing our theoretical results with empirical evidence, we find that the Shapley value explains the power of major transit countries better than the core and the nucleolus.

Log-derived thickness and porosity of the Barnett Shale, Fort Worth basin, Texas: Implications for assessment of gas shale resources

This study estimates reservoir quality and free-gas storage capacity of the Barnett Shale in the main natural-gas producing area of the Fort Worth basin by mapping log-derived thickness, porosity, and porosity-feet. In the Barnett Shale, the density porosity (DPHI) log curve is a very useful tool to quantitatively assess shale gas resources, and gamma-ray (GR) and neutron porosity log curves are important factors in identifying the shale gas reservoir. The key data were digital logs from 146 wells selected based on the availability of GR and density log curves, log quality, and good spatial distribution. The Barnett Shale pay zone was determined on the basis of (1) DPHI >5%, (2) high GR values (commonly >∼90 API units), (3) no significant intercalated carbonate-rich beds, and (4) individual pay zones being thick enough to be commercially successful for the current design of horizontal wells. In the study area, the Barnett Shale pay zone varies from about 165 ft (50 m) to 420 ft (128 m) in thickness (H). Average DPHI values of individual wells for the pay zone vary from 8.5 to 14.0%. Porosity-feet maps of the pay zone show that areas of high DPHI-H values coincide with areas of high natural gas production, indicating that log-derived porosity-feet maps are a good method for evaluating reservoir quality and assessing natural gas resource in the Barnett Shale play. A limitation to this method is shown in the northwestern corner of the study area, which is located in the liquids-rich window with lower thermal maturity.

Regional assessment of the Eagle Ford Group of South Texas, USA: Insights from lithology, pore volume, water saturation, organic richness, and productivity correlations

AbstractA comprehensive regional investigation of the Eagle Ford Shale linking productivity to porosity-thickness (PHIH), lithology (Vclay), pore volume (PHIT), organic matter (TOC), and water-saturation (SW) variations has not been presented to date. Therefore, isopach maps across the Eagle Ford Shale play west of the San Marcos Arch were constructed using thickness and log-calculated attributes such as TOC, Vclay, SW, and porosity to identify sweet spots and spatial distribution of these geologic characteristics that influence productivity in shale plays. The Upper Cretaceous Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas is an organic-rich, calcareous mudrock deposited during a second-order transgression of global sea level on a carbonate-dominated shelf updip from the older Sligo and Edwards (Stuart City) reef margins. Lithology and organic-matter deposition were controlled by fluvial input from the Woodbine delta in the northeast, upwelling along the Cretaceous shelf edge, and volcanic and clastic input from distan...

Log-derived thickness and porosity of the Barnett Shale, Fort Worth basin, Texas

This study estimates reservoir quality and free-gas storage capacity of the Barnett Shale in the main natural-gas producing area of the Fort Worth basin by mapping log-derived thickness, porosity, and porosity-feet. In the Barnett Shale, the density porosity (DPHI) log curve is a very useful tool to quantitatively assess shale gas resources, and gamma-ray (GR) and neutron porosity log curves are important factors in identifying the shale gas reservoir. The key data were digital logs from 146 wells selected based on the availability of GR and density log curves, log quality, and good spatial distribution. The Barnett Shale pay zone was determined on the basis of (1) DPHI >5%, (2) high GR values (commonly >∼90 API units), (3) no significant intercalated carbonate-rich beds, and (4) individual pay zones being thick enough to be commercially successful for the current design of horizontal wells. In the study area, the Barnett Shale pay zone varies from about 165 ft (50 m) to 420 ft (128 m) in thickness (H). Average DPHI values of individual wells for the pay zone vary from 8.5 to 14.0%. Porosity-feet maps of the pay zone show that areas of high DPHI-H values coincide with areas of high natural gas production, indicating that log-derived porosity-feet maps are a good method for evaluating reservoir quality and assessing natural gas resource in the Barnett Shale play. A limitation to this method is shown in the northwestern corner of the study area, which is located in the liquids-rich window with lower thermal maturity.

Projecting the Water Footprint Associated with Shale Resource Production: Eagle Ford Shale Case Study

Production of oil from shale and tight reservoirs accounted for almost 50% of 2016 total U.S. production and is projected to continue growing. The objective of our analysis was to quantify the water outlook for future shale oil development using the Eagle Ford Shale as a case study. We developed a water outlook model that projects water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) and flowback and produced water (FP) volumes based on expected energy prices; historical oil, natural gas, and water-production decline data per well; projected well spacing; and well economics. The number of wells projected to be drilled in the Eagle Ford through 2045 is almost linearly related to oil price, ranging from 20 000 wells at

An Improved Approach for Forecasting Ecological Impacts from Future Drilling in Unconventional Shale Oil and Gas Plays

30/barrel (bbl) oil to 97 000 wells at

Well economics across ten tiers in low and high Btu (British thermal unit) areas, Barnett Shale, Texas

100/bbl oil. Projected FP water volumes range from 20% to 40% of HF across the play. Our base reference oil price of

Barnett Shale Production Outlook

50/bbl would result in 40 000 additional wells and related HF of 265 × 109 gal and FP of 85 × 109 gal. The presented water outlooks for HF and FP water volumes can be used to assess future water sourcing and wastewater disposal or reuse, and to inform policy discussions.

Profitability of shale gas drilling: A case study of the Fayetteville shale play

Directional well drilling and hydraulic fracturing has enabled energy production from previously inaccessible resources, but caused vegetation conversion and landscape fragmentation, often in relatively undisturbed habitats. We improve forecasts of future ecological impacts from unconventional oil and gas play developments using a new, more spatially-explicit approach. We applied an energy production outlook model, which used geologic and economic data from thousands of wells and three oil price scenarios, to map future drilling patterns and evaluate the spatial distribution of vegetation conversion and habitat impacts. We forecast where future well pad construction may be most intense, illustrating with an example from the Eagle Ford Shale Play of Texas. We also illustrate the ecological utility of this approach using the Spot-tailed Earless Lizard (Holbrookia lacerata) as the focal species, which historically occupied much of the Eagle Ford and awaits a federal decision for possible Endangered Species Act protection. We found that ~17,000–45,500 wells would be drilled 2017‒2045 resulting in vegetation conversion of ~26,485–70,623 ha (0.73–1.96% of pre-development vegetation), depending on price scenario (