Swee Sum Lam

A note on capital market segmentation: new tests and evidence

Abstract This study applies cointegration tests for a localized form of capital market segmentation. We find evidence of segmentation as well as integration within the same stock exchange. The experimental design for tests of a localized form of capital market segmentation avoids the shortcomings of the capital asset pricing model as well as the need to control for transaction and information costs, and institutional and regulatory differences across financial markets and therefore offers more conclusive results. Moreover, the cointegration test, as contrasted with the conventional t-test of significance of the price premia of foreign shares over local shares, offers a more direct and powerful test of the localized form of market segmentation in this instance.

Initial Public Offerings of State-Owned Enterprises: An International Study of Policy Risk

Policy risk, rather than information asymmetry, explains the cross-sectional underpricing of privatized initial public offerings. The issuer governments of high policy risk issues tend to retain a large equity stake and underprice more with underpricing increasing in retained equity. While the issuer governments retained equity is an observable signal for policy risk, we find that the quality of a countrys bureaucratic machinery is a more intuitive and practical measure of policy risk. Policy risk also explains the absence of a systematic relation between the initial returns on privatized and private initial public offerings.

The Norm Theory of Capital Structure: International Evidence*

Akerlof proposes that the norms of decision makers can bridge the gap between New Classical economic theories and conflicting empirical evidence. We apply his framework to cross‐country capital structure decision making and propose a norm theory of capital structure. Consistent with its predictions, we find that two principal components that represent the manager–subordinate relationship and the manager–environment relationship in a national culture are significantly and negatively related to the median leverage ratio at the country level. This study is among the first to provide a direct link between national culture and capital structure as made operational through managerial norms.

Globalization and Stock Market Returns

With increasing globalization, to what extent do stock market returns reflect global or domestic risk factors? We find a significant relationship between stock market returns and the global market risk factor and macroeconomic factors respectively. In particular, global factors offer four times more explanatory power than domestic factors for developed market stock returns. Yet domestic factors are as important as global ones in emerging economies. Our method allows for the proxies of the state variables to be endogenously determined. The relationship between macroeconomy and stock market returns is robust after accounting for the market factor, firm size and book-to-market characteristics.

Does Policy Uncertainty Matter for International Equity Markets

We test whether policy risk is systematically priced in equity returns across 49 countries from 1995 to 2013. We construct two global policy risk factors based on the ratings from international country risk guide. They capture the policy risk from government instability (GOVLMH) and the quality of bureaucracy (BURLMH). Both factors are significantly and positively related to equity returns and the BURLMH factor carries a monthly risk premium of 65 basis points. A country with weaker economic and institutional conditions has more risk exposure to the BURLMH factor whereas a country with high democracy has more risk exposure to the GOVLMH factor. Overall, our study reveals the importance and complexity of policy risk in international equity markets.

The mispricing of socially ambiguous grey stocks

The study examines how stock market prices the stocks of socially ambiguous “Grey” firms, who are socially responsible in certain corporate social responsibility (CSR) dimensions while being socially irresponsible in other dimensions. Using firm data from 1992 to 2011, we find that the value-weighted “Grey” portfolio earns an annual abnormal return up to 3.6% relative to “Neutral” portfolio that consists of neither socially responsible nor irresponsible firms. Interestingly, “Community” and “Environment” sub-dimensions of CSR are the main drivers for the overpricing. The overpricing phenomenon is robust and is not driven by small firms, the “Sin” stocks or “Controversial” industries.

The Moderating Effect of Bureaucratic Quality on the Pricing of Policy Instability

We examine how policy instability is priced in interest rates. Policy instability refers to the likelihood that the current policy will be changed in the future in the absence of political power shifts. Chinese government’s experimental policymaking approach provides an ideal set of frequent policy flip-flops which allows us to identify the effect of policy changes. Conditional on the bureaucratic quality of policymaking, a good-quality policy reversal is related to reductions in interest rate term spread and volatility; a bad-quality policy reversal is related to increases in the spread and volatility. The bureaucratic quality is multi-dimensional and the moderating effect is stronger on interest rates when it is measured more precisely.

Agency Costs and Management Contracting: Granting Executive Stock Options as a Strategic Compensation Practice?

This is an exploratory study on the characteristics and performance of firms that choose to grant executive stock options as a strategic compensation practice. According to the push theory of employee ownership, stock options are granted to push employees to create superior financial performance. We find that firms which grant executive stock options offer persistent abnormal firm performance. Firms that grant stock options in lieu of cash compensation do not perform differently in the long run from those that grant stock options as incentives. This finding is consistent with the proposition that the motivation for the use of executive stock options is endogenously determined for any firm given its investment opportunities and technology, risk characteristics and growth options.

Does Policy Instability Matter for International Equity Markets?: Does Policy Instability Matter?

We test whether policy risk is systematically priced in equity returns across 49 countries from 1995 to 2013. We construct two global policy risk factors based on the ratings from international country risk guide. They capture the policy risk from government instability (GOVLMH) and the quality of bureaucracy (BURLMH). Both factors are significantly and positively related to equity returns and the BURLMH factor carries a monthly risk premium of 65 basis points. A country with weaker economic and institutional conditions has more risk exposure to the BURLMH factor whereas a country with high democracy has more risk exposure to the GOVLMH factor. Overall, our study reveals the importance and complexity of policy risk in international equity markets.

Unveil the Rationale of Policy Experimentation: The China Experience

The developing Chinese economy has gone through significant market reforms in recent decades by taking a deliberate path of trail-and-error policymaking. We hand-collect a sample of 59 policy reversals related to market liberalization from 1999 to 2017. Using a general equilibrium term structure model, we explore the economic outcomes after these policy flip-flops. We find that a half of the reversals have led to significant tradeoff between economic growth and the volatility of the growth. Moreover, the policymakers have missed the target sometimes as about a quarter of the reversals are detrimental to both the growth and the stability. These bad reversals are accompanied by higher term spread and volatility of the spread, making them easily identifiable. Overall, our methodology can be used to evaluate the economic impact of policy reversals in an objective and timely manner.