Sweta Chaman Saxena

Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap; An Application to Sweden

This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.

Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly after the crisis, there is evidence of permanent losses in the levels of output in all the countries studied.

What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India

Did real overvaluation contribute to the 1991 currency crisis in India? This paper seeks an answer by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate, using an error correction model and a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The results are affirmative and the evidence indicates that current account deficits and investor confidence also played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation. The ECM model is supported by superior out-of-sample forecast performance versus a random walk model.

Robbing the Riches; Capital Flight, Institutions, and Instability

Capital flight may undermine economic growth and the effectiveness of debt relief and foreign aid. This paper is the first attempt to test whether unsound macroeconomic policies or weak institutions lead to capital flight, using panel data for a large set of developing, emerging market and transition countries. In addition, the paper tests the revolving door hypothesis that links debt accumulation and capital flight, and analyzes the contribution of institutions to several channels in this relationship.

Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight, Institutions and Debt

Abstract Capital flight undermines economic growth and the effectiveness of debt relief and foreign aid, and sometimes drains more resources from poor countries than does debt service. In an analysis of a large panel of developing and emerging market countries using annual data for 1970–2001, we show that both institutions and macro policies robustly affect capital flight. Our study also supports the existence of a revolving door relationship between debt and capital flight. More notably we find countries with weak institutions have a greater propensity to accumulate debt because weak institutions spur capital flight, which, in turn, creates a financing need.

Misaligned? Overvalued?. The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira

There is a consensus among scholars that overvalued exchange rates result in currency crises. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey and finds that the lira was indeed overvalued before the crises in 1994 and 2001. However, the actual real exchange rate is at present close to the equilibrium level, exposing the myth propagated by the Turkish exporters that lira’s overvaluation is responsible for Turkey’s uncompetitive exports. The paper also highlights the role for fiscal adjustment in macroeconomic stability

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: What are the Consequences of China's WTO Entry for India's trade?

One of the most significant recent developments in world trade has been the entry of China into the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper examines the implications of China’s WTO accession for India’s trade, using both econometrics and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The paper analyzes how India stands to lose or gain from China’s WTO entry in terms of both the direct and competitive channels.

Technological innovations in the Indian banking industry: the late bloomer

Given that technological innovations in the banking sector in industrialised countries have been shown to increase productivity of this industry around the world, then why did India shy away from adopting this technology until the 1990s? Why has India been a late adopter of technology in the banking industry when it could have reaped the benefits from the existing R&D expertise developed by innovators and early adopters? This article charts out the path of technological innovation in the Indian banking industry post-economic liberalisation (1991–2) and identifies initial conditions in terms of competitive environment and regulatory pressures that have contributed to the diffusion of these innovations. The article highlights the role of labour unions in public sector banks and their initial opposition to technological adoption. The empirical analysis demonstrates the superior performance of the early adopters of technology (private sector and foreign banks) as measured by productivity, returns on equity, and market share, as compared to the late or passive adopters (public sector banks).

An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior

This paper studies the behavior of Chinas exports from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export products have been taken from Chinese custom statistics to form a panel data set. The data are used to estimate export supply price elasticities, including by industry groups. The extensive product level data permits the use of panel estimation techniques in order to increase the power of testing methodology. Aggregate quarterly export unit price indices are also constructed and thereby provide an input to future research on Chinas trade.

The East African Community; Prospects for Sustained Growth

The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade-the ambition of most countries in the region. This paper builds on methodologies established in the growth literature to identify a group of countries that achieved growth accelerations and sustained growth to use as benchmarks to evaluate the prospects, and potential constraints, for EAC countries to translate their recent growth upturn into sustained high growth. We find that EAC countries compare favorably to the group of sustained growth countries-macroeconomic and government stability, favorable business climate, and strong institutions-but important differences remain. EAC countries have a smaller share of exports, lower degree of financial deepening, lower levels of domestic savings, higher reliance on donor aid, and limited physical infrastructure and human capital. Policy choices to address some of these shortcomings could make a difference in whether the EAC follows the path of sustained growth or follows other countries where growth upturns later fizzled out.