Sybren S. Drijfhout

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W−1 m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

Response of the Atlantic overturning circulation to South Atlantic sources of buoyancy

The heat and salt input from the Indian to Atlantic Oceans by Agulhas Leakage is found to influence the Atlantic overturning circulation in a low-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). The model used is the Hamburg Large-Scale Geostrophic (LSG) model, which is forced by mixed boundary conditions. Agulhas Leakage is parameterized by sources of heat and salt in the upper South Atlantic Ocean, which extend well into the intermediate layers. It is shown that the model’s overturning circulation is sensitive to the applied sources of heat and salt. The response of the overturning strength to changes in the source amplitudes is mainly linear, interrupted once by a stepwise change. The South Atlantic buoyancy sources influence the Atlantic overturning strength by modifying the basin-scale meridional density and pressure gradients. The non-linear, stepwise response is caused by abrupt changes in the convective activity in the northern North Atlantic. Two additional experiments illustrate the adjustment of the overturning circulation upon sudden introduction of heat and salt sources in the South Atlantic. The North Atlantic overturning circulation responds within a few years after the sources are switched on. This is the time it takes for barotropic and baroclinic Kelvin waves to reach the northern North Atlantic in this model. The advection of the anomalies takes three decades to reach the northern North Atlantic. The model results give support to the hypothesis that the re-opening of the Agulhas Gap at the end of the last ice-age, as indicated by palaeoclimatological data, may have stimulated the coincident strengthening of the Atlantic overturning circulation. D 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Tasman leakage: A new route in the global ocean conveyor belt

The existence of a new route that draws relatively cold waters from the Pacific Ocean to the North Atlantic via the Tasman outflow is presented. The new route materialises with comparable magnitude and characteristics in three independent numerical realisations of the global ocean circulation. Its realism is supported by hydrographic data interpolated via an inverse model. The “Tasman leakage” constitutes a sizeable component of the upper branch of the global conveyor belt and represents an extension to the prevailing views that hitherto emphasised the routes via the Drake Passage and the Indonesian Throughflow [ Gordon, 1986 ].

Is a decline of AMOC causing the warming hole above the North Atlantic in observed and modeled warming patterns

AbstractThe pattern of global mean temperature (GMT) change is calculated by regressing local surface air temperature (SAT) to GMT for an ensemble of CMIP5 models and for observations over the last 132 years. Calculations are based on the historical period and climate change scenarios. As in the observations the warming pattern contains a warming hole over the subpolar North Atlantic. Using a bivariate regression of SAT to GMT and an index of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the warming pattern is decomposed in a radiatively forced part and an AMOC fingerprint. The North Atlantic warming hole is associated with a decline of the AMOC. The AMOC fingerprint resembles Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), but details of the pattern change when the AMOC decline increases, underscoring the nonlinearity in the response.The warming hole is situated south of deep convection sites, indicating that it involves an adjustment of the gyre circulation, although it should be noted that some mode...

Observations of a young Agulhas ring, Astrid, during MARE in March 2000

The MARE project studies the effects of inter-ocean exchange between the Indian and Atlantic Ocean, via Agulhas rings, on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The field programme of MARE concentrates on the study of the decay and modification of a single Agulhas ring named Astrid, formed in January 2000. The ring was clearly visible in the analysis of satellite altimetry data, and surface drifters confirmed the anti-cyclonic rotation. During a detailed survey of this 2-month-old ring in March 2000, it appeared that the water mass properties of this ring only differed from the surrounding water above the 12°C isotherm. The observed fine-structure near its boundary suggested that exchange of water with its surroundings already had started. Observations with a lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler showed that the ring had a significant barotropic component, additional to the baroclinic flow around its warm centre. Meteorological observations indicated that during the summer survey the ring was losing heat to the atmosphere. This heat loss maintained convective mixing in the surface mixed layer. Compared to other reported rings, Astrid had a very large kinetic energy, a property probably characteristic for very young Agulhas rings. In other aspects Astrid did not differ strongly from the other rings, although Astrid was slightly larger than their typical ‘average’ size.

Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins

The first decade of the twenty-first century was characterised by a hiatus in global surface warming. Using ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses we show that heat uptake between the 1990s and 2000s increased by 0.7?±?0.3Wm?2. Approximately 30% of the increase is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Other basins contribute via reduced heat loss to the atmosphere, in particular the Southern and subtropical Indian Oceans (30%), and the subpolar North Atlantic (40%). A different mechanism is important at longer timescales (1960s-present) over which the Southern Annular Mode trended upwards. In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies.

An indicator of the multiple equilibria regime of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Recent model results have suggested that there may be a scalar indicator Σ monitoring whether the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is in a multiple equilibrium regime. The quantity Σ is based on the net freshwater transport by the MOC into the Atlantic basin. It changes sign as soon as the steady Atlantic MOC enters the multiple equilibrium regime because of an increased freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic. This paper addresses the issue of why the sign of Σ is such a good indicator for the multiple equilibrium regime. Changes in the Atlantic freshwater budget over a complete bifurcation diagram and in finite amplitude perturbation experiments are analyzed in a global ocean circulation model. The authors show that the net anomalous freshwater transport into or out of the Atlantic, resulting from the interactions of the velocity perturbations and salinity background field, is coupled to the background (steady state) state freshwater budget and hence to Σ. The sign of Σ precisely shows whether this net anomalous freshwater transport is stabilizing or destabilizing the MOC. Therefore, it can indicate whether the MOC is in a single or multiple equilibrium regime.

Mean Circulation and Internal Variability in an Ocean Primitive Equation Model

Abstract A primitive equation World Ocean model has been integrated with restoring boundary conditions to reach a steady state. The global distribution of potential temperature, salinity, and meridional streamfunction are consistent with observations. In steady state, the effective freshwater fluxes were diagnosed, and the model has been integrated further prescribing these freshwater fluxes. The ocean circulation undergoes self-sustained oscillations over a wide range of timescales, ranging from decadal to millennium. Most pronounced are self-sustained oscillations with a timescale of 20, 300, and 1000 years. The latter two oscillations are coupled. They consist of density (salinity) anomalies that circulate through the global conveyor belt, periodically enhancing convection in the Southern Ocean and limiting convection in the northern North Atlantic. The timescale is set by the vertical diffusion, which destabilizes the stratification in the Southern Ocean when convection is weak. The 20-yr oscillation ...

Reliability of regional climate model trends

A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed probabilities verified over a large number of cases. As climate change trends are now emerging from the natural variability, we can apply this concept to climate predictions and compute the reliability of simulated local and regional temperature and precipitation trends (1950–2011) in a recent multi-model ensemble of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5). With only a single verification time, the verification is over the spatial dimension. The local temperature trends appear to be reliable. However, when the global mean climate response is factored out, the ensemble is overconfident: the observed trend is outside the range of modelled trends in many more regions than would be expected by the model estimate of natural variability and model spread. Precipitation trends are overconfident for all trend definitions. This implies that for near-term local climate forecasts the CMIP5 ensemble cannot simply be used as a reliable probabilistic forecast.

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.