Syed Tehseen Jawaid

Internet banking and customer satisfaction in Pakistan

Purpose - – This study aims to determine the effects of service quality dimensions on customer satisfaction in Pakistan by using the SERVQUAL model. Design/methodology/approach - – A survey research questionnaire of 30 items has been adopted, and the data of 400 respondents were collected from the users of Internet banking of different banks located in Karachi city of Pakistan. Findings - – The reliability analysis shows that all dimensions are reliable. Results of the factor analysis confirm the grouping of adopted questioner. At last, the regression analysis indicates a significant positive relationship between assurance, tangibility, reliability and responsiveness with customer satisfaction. Conversely, empathy shows a positive but insignificant effect on the customer satisfaction. Practical implications - – It is recommended that the management of online banks has to focus on making the design and content of the Web sites more visually appealing to grab the attention of existing customers, as well as to attract new customers. The management has to take effective measures to further enhance the security and safety of online bank accounts, so that customers can maintain long-term relationships with the usage of online banking. Online banks have to provide more reliable services to the customers at heart to make the customers more comfortable and confident. The management should develop more effective systems to quickly solve the issues of customers. Originality/value - – This paper makes a unique contribution to the literature with reference to Pakistan, being a pioneering attempt to investigate the customer satisfaction in the banking industry of Pakistan by using a large sample and advance statistical techniques.

Trade Openness and Economic Growth A Lesson from Pakistan

This article is an attempt to examine the comparative effect of three different measures of trade openness on the economic growth in Pakistan by using more rigorous econometric techniques. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, JJ COintegration and ordinary least square (OLS) results suggest significant positive long run relationship between export and economic growth. In contrast, total volume of trade and imports have significant negative effect on the economic growth. The addition of variables and results of fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) suggest that the results are robust. The Granger causality and variance decomposition analysis indicate the unidirectional causality between trade openness and economic growth. In export model, causality runs from export to growth. Whereas, in the model with total volume of trade and import, causality runs from growth to total volume of trade, and imports in Pakistan. From the findings it is concluded that the policy makers should focus on export promotion strategy to enhance the economic growth in Pakistan. Besides, efficient utilization of capital goods should be ensured and reliance on non-capital goods should be less in order to ensure high domestic production in the country.

Is stock market sensitive to foreign capital inflows and economic growth?: Evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of foreign capital inflows and economic growth on stock market capitalization in Pakistan by using the annual time series data from the period of 1976 to 2011. The ARDL bound testing cointegration approach confirms the valid long run relationship between considered variables. Results indicate that foreign direct investment, workers’ remittances and economic growth have significant positive relationship with the stock market capitalization in long run as well as in short run. Results of dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) suggest that the initial results of long run coefficients are robust. Results of variance decomposition test show the bidirectional causal relationship of foreign direct investment and economic growth with stock market capitalization. However, unidirectional causal relationship is found in between workers’ remittances and stock market capitalization. It is suggested that in Pakistan, investor can make their investment decisions through keep an eye on the direction of the considered foreign capital inflows and economic growth.

Do Terms of Trade and Its Volatility Matter? Evidence From Economic Escalation of China

This article makes a unique contribution to the literature with reference to China, being a pioneering attempt to investigate the effect of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth of China by using annual time series data from 1980 to 2010 and by applying rigorous econometric techniques. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration and Johansen and Juselius cointegration methods suggest the significant negative long-run relationship of terms of trade and volatility of terms of trade with economic growth. Four different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis was performed to find the yearly effect of terms of trade and its volatility on the economic growth of China. Results show that the coefficient of terms of trade on economic growth remains negative from 1985 to 1988, 1994 to 1995, 1998 to 2002, and from 2006 to 2008. Variance decomposition method shows a unidirectional causal relationship between terms of trade and economic growth runs from terms of trade to economic growth and a bidirectional causal relationship between volatility of terms of trade and economic growth in China. It is concluded that less volatile terms of trade are better for economic growth. Policy makers should critically analyze the reasons for deterioration of terms of trade in the years 1985 to 1988, 1994 to 1995, 1998 to 2002 and from 2006 to 2008. Either this happened because of increases in import prices or decreases in export prices, or increases in export prices that are less than increases in import prices. This analysis will be beneficial in finding the contents of export and import by which terms of trade deteriorate and form growth-enhancing policies.

Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in South Asia

This study investigates the effect of electricity consumption on economic growth of four South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, by employing time series annual data from 1980 to 2010. Pedroni’s panel cointegration results confirm that there exists valid long-run relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in South Asia. Results of random effects model suggest the positive and significant impact of electricity consumption on economic growth of South Asian countries. Robustness of the initial findings of positive and significant relationship is confirmed by four different sensitivity analyses. Results of panel Granger causality test confirm the unidirectional causal relationship runs from electricity consumption to economic growth. It is therefore recommended that the South Asian countries should consider the development initiative and low-cost mode to produce electricity to enhance economic growth in the region.

Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Lead Export Performance in Pakistan

This study is a pioneering attempt to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on export performance in Pakistan by using the long annual time series data from the period 1974–2012 and by using more rigorous econometric techniques. Autoregressive distributed lag-bound testing cointegration approach confirms the valid long-run relationship between considered variables. Results indicate the significant positive impact of FDI on real exports in long run as well as in short run. Results of Granger causality test, Toda and Yamamoto Modified Wald causality test and variance decomposition test confirm the bidirectional causal relationship between FDI and export performance in Pakistan. Results of rolling window analysis suggest that the coefficient of FDI in export model remains negative from 1983 to 1987, from 2001 to 2006 and in 2011. The coefficient of FDI in export model shows a positive coefficient in remaining years. It can be seen that FDI and real export are connected in complementary way in Pakistan. The policy makers should make policies that favour foreign investors so as to attract more FDI in Pakistan. It has been observed that a stable political and economic environment is desirable to attract more FDI in Pakistan.

Validity of capital asset pricing model in Pakistan: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange

This study investigates the validity of capital asset pricing (CAP) model in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). The data used in this study were collected from 387 companies of 30 different sectors on monthly, quarterly and semi-annual basis. The Paired sample t- test is applied to find the difference between actual and expected returns. Results show that capital asset pricing model (CAPM) predict more accurately the expected return on a short term investment as compare to long term investment. It is recommended that the investors should more focus on CAPM results for short term as compare to long term investments in KSE.

Foreign capital inflows and economic growth of Pakistan

ABSTRACT This study investigates the relationship of foreign capital inflows, namely foreign direct investment, workers’ remittances, and external debt with economic growth of Pakistan by employing time series data from 1976 to 2015. Cointegration results indicate that foreign capital inflows and economic growth have a significant relationship with economic growth in the long run. Ordinary least square results indicate foreign direct investment has a significant and negative effect on economic growth, whereas a significant positive effect of remittances and external debts on economic growth is found. Rolling windows analysis highlights the yearly effect of three different models. Two different sensitivity analyses confirmed that initial results are robust. The final section concludes the study and provides some policy implications.

Does expanding higher education reduce income inequality in emerging economy? Evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the impact of development in the higher education sector, on the Income Inequality in Pakistan, by using the annual time series data from 1973 to 2012. The autoregressive distributed lag bound testing co-integration approach confirms the existence of long-run relationship between higher education and income inequality. Results indicate that higher education has a negative and significant relationship with the income inequality in the long run, while a negative but insignificant effect is found in the short run. Results of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and CUSUM of square test suggest that there is no structural instability in the residuals of equation of income inequality. Results of causality analyses confirm the unidirectional causal relationship between higher education development and income inequality in Pakistan, which runs from the higher education development to the income inequality. The findings of this study suggest that development in the higher education sector would be a significant policy option to control the income inequality and should be considered a means to improve the income distribution in Pakistan.

Contribution of International Trade in Human Development of Pakistan

Very few studies have attempted to examine the relationship between international trade and human development. Some panel and cross-section studies have been done, but mostly Pakistan has not been included. This study examines for the first time ever the effect of aggregate and disaggregate trade on human development in Pakistan by using annual time series data from 1980 to 2013. This study contains five models in which human development with (a) total trade, (b) aggregate exports, (c) aggregate imports, (d) exports of primary commodities, semi-manufactured goods and manufactured goods and (e) imports of consumer goods, imports of capital goods, industrial raw material of consumer goods and industrial raw material for capital goods is considered. Cointegration test has been applied to check the long-run relationship between human development and trade. Sensitivity analysis confirms that initial results are robust. Causality analysis has also been done for the causal relationship between international trade and human development.