Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no comparison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling approaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux.

The comfort, energy and health implications of London's urban heat island

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-known effect of urbanisation and is particularly important in world megacities. Overheating in such cities is expected to be exacerbated in the future as a result of further urban growth and climate change. Demonstrating and quantifying the impact of individual design interventions on the UHI is currently difficult using available software tools. The tools developed in the LUCID (‘The Development of a Local Urban Climate Model and its Application to the Intelligent Design of Cities’) research project will enable the related impacts to be better understood, quantified and addressed. This article summarises the relevant literature and reports on the ongoing work of the project. Practical applications: There is a complex relationship between built form, urban processes, local temperature, comfort, energy use and health. The UHI effect is significant and there is a growing recognition of this issue. Developers and planners are seeking advice on design decisions at a variety of scales based on scientifically robust, quantitative methods. The LUCID project has thus developed a series of tools that (1) quantify the effect of urbanisation processes on local environmental conditions, and (2) quantify the impact of such conditions on comfort, energy use and health. The use of such tools is vital, both to inform policy but also to be able to demonstrate compliance with it.

Meteorology, air quality, and health in London: The ClearfLo project

AbstractAir quality and heat are strong health drivers, and their accurate assessment and forecast are important in densely populated urban areas. However, the sources and processes leading to high concentrations of main pollutants, such as ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and fine and coarse particulate matter, in complex urban areas are not fully understood, limiting our ability to forecast air quality accurately. This paper introduces the Clean Air for London (ClearfLo; www.clearflo.ac.uk) project’s interdisciplinary approach to investigate the processes leading to poor air quality and elevated temperatures.Within ClearfLo, a large multi-institutional project funded by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), integrated measurements of meteorology and gaseous, and particulate composition/loading within the atmosphere of London, United Kingdom, were undertaken to understand the processes underlying poor air quality. Long-term measurement infrastructure installed at multiple levels (street and eleva...

Influence of thermal effects on street canyon circulations

A numerical study has been carried out to investigate the influence of large-scale thermal effects and strong local-scale temperature gradients near the ground on the circulation inside a street canyon. The results show that the dynamical forcing dominates the circulation inside a street canyon. But this forcing is influenced by the large-scale thermal stability. Thus, atmospheric stability indirectly controls the street canyon circulation. Small temperature gradients inside the street-canyon are neutralised by the external dynamical forcing. Strong temperature gradients inside the street-canyon show an impact on the street canyon circulation. While stable stratification reduces the circulation for the building configuration investigated, convective stratification seems to intensify it.

Methods to Estimate Acclimatization to the Urban Heat Island Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality.

Background: Investigators have examined whether heat mortality risk is increased in neighborhoods subject to the urban heat island (UHI) effect but have not identified degrees of difference in susceptibility to heat and cold between cool and hot areas, which we call acclimatization to the UHI. Objectives: We developed methods to examine and quantify the degree of acclimatization to heat- and cold-related mortality in relation to UHI anomalies and applied these methods to London, UK. Methods: Case–crossover analyses were undertaken on 1993–2006 mortality data from London UHI decile groups defined by anomalies from the London average of modeled air temperature at a 1-km grid resolution. We estimated how UHI anomalies modified excess mortality on cold and hot days for London overall and displaced a fixed-shape temperature-mortality function (“shifted spline” model). We also compared the observed associations with those expected under no or full acclimatization to the UHI. Results: The relative risk of death on hot versus normal days differed very little across UHI decile groups. A 1°C UHI anomaly multiplied the risk of heat death by 1.004 (95% CI: 0.950, 1.061) (interaction rate ratio) compared with the expected value of 1.070 (1.057, 1.082) if there were no acclimatization. The corresponding UHI interaction for cold was 1.020 (0.979, 1.063) versus 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) (actual versus expected under no acclimatization, respectively). Fitted splines for heat shifted little across UHI decile groups, again suggesting acclimatization. For cold, the splines shifted somewhat in the direction of no acclimatization, but did not exclude acclimatization. Conclusions: We have proposed two analytical methods for estimating the degree of acclimatization to the heat- and cold-related mortality burdens associated with UHIs. The results for London suggest relatively complete acclimatization to the UHI effect on summer heat–related mortality, but less clear evidence for cold–related mortality. Citation: Milojevic A, Armstrong BG, Gasparrini A, Bohnenstengel SI, Barratt B, Wilkinson P. 2016. Methods to estimate acclimatization to urban heat island effects on heat- and cold-related mortality. Environ Health Perspect 124:1016–1022; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510109

Performance of Different Sub-Grid-Scale Surface Flux Parameterizations for Urban and Rural Areas

With increasing computing power resolutions of mesoscale atmospheric models increase. However, this does not necessarily improve model performance as evaluations show. Especially, in very heterogeneous areas like urban areas, where densely built areas with sealed surfaces and irrigated gardens and parks occur within the same grid box the aggregation effect impacts model performance. To ensure a good forecast of pollutant concentrations an accurate prediction of the flow field and the vertical mixing is essential. Two schemes to parameterize sub-grid-scale surface fluxes are applied to the area around Berlin for different meteorological situations and grid resolutions. Parameter averaging and a flux aggregation method with blending height concept are validated for grid resolutions 4, 8 and 16 km. Model performance is determined by calculating hit rates from the German Weather Service (DWD) routine data.

Socio-economic Impacts—Urban Climate

About 80 % of the population within the North Sea countries currently lives in an urban area and this percentage is projected to continue to rise. Urban areas are not only impacted by changes in regional climate but are themselves responsible for causing local modifications in regional climate resulting in the so-called ‘urban climate’. The urban climate in North Sea cities has several common features: higher temperatures relative to the surrounding regions (especially at night), greater temperature variability, deeper but less stable boundary layers at night, lower average wind speeds but stronger gusts, reduced evapotranspiration, and greater air pollution (local exceedances of limit values for nitrogen oxides, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter, with ship emissions a relevant contributor in harbour cities). Indications of climate change are now apparent and include hinterland flooding, more intense precipitation, and drier and warmer summers. Cities contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and measures are needed to reduce these. Cities also need to adapt to climate change. Despite broad similarities between urban areas, in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change there are large location-specific differences with regard to city planning needs. Hamburg and London are used as examples. Adaptation measures include better insulation of buildings to reduce energy use and anthropogenic heat emissions, higher dykes to protect against increased water levels, and rain water drainage to avoid hinterland flooding. Scenarios are outlined for urban development with greened roofs, higher albedo values and lower sealing of surfaces.