Sylvia Moenickes

From population-level effects to individual response: modelling temperature dependence in Gammarus pulex

SUMMARY Population-level effects of global warming result from concurrent direct and indirect processes. They are typically described by physiologically structured population models (PSPMs). Therefore, inverse modelling offers a tool to identify parameters of individual physiological processes through population-level data analysis, e.g. the temperature dependence of growth from size–frequency data of a field population. Here, we make use of experiments under laboratory conditions, in mesocosms and field monitoring to determine the temperature dependence of growth and mortality of Gammarus pulex. We found an optimum temperature for growth of approximately 17°C and a related temperature coefficient, Q10, of 1.5°C–1, irrespective of whether we classically fitted individual growth curves or applied inverse modelling based on PSPMs to laboratory data. From a comparison of underlying data sets we conclude that applying inverse modelling techniques to population-level data results in meaningful response parameters for physiological processes if additional temperature-driven effects, including within-population interaction, can be excluded or determined independently. If this is not the case, parameter estimates describe a cumulative response, e.g. comprising temperature-dependent resource dynamics. Finally, fluctuating temperatures in natural habitats increased the uncertainty in parameter values. Here, PSPM should be applied for virtual monitoring in order to determine a sampling scheme that comprises important dates to reduce parameter uncertainty.

Modelling the effect of temperature on the range expansion of species by reaction–diffusion equations

The spatial dynamics of range expansion is studied in dependence of temperature. The main elements population dynamics, competition and dispersal are combined in a coherent approach based on a system of coupled partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion type. The nonlinear reaction terms comprise population dynamic models with temperature dependent reproduction rates subject to an Allee effect and mutual competition. The effect of temperature on travelling wave solutions is investigated for a one dimensional model version. One main result is the importance of the Allee effect for the crossing of regions with unsuitable habitats. The nonlinearities of the interaction terms give rise to a richness of spatio-temporal dynamic patterns. In two dimensions, the resulting non-linear initial boundary value problems are solved over geometries of heterogeneous landscapes. Geo referenced model parameters such as mean temperature and elevation are imported into the finite element tool COMSOL Multiphysics from a geographical information system. The model is applied to the range expansion of species at the scale of middle Europe.

Process dominance analysis for fate modeling of flubendazole and fenbendazole in liquid manure and manured soil

Fate monitoring data on anaerobic transformation of the benzimidazole anthelmintics flubendazole (FLU) and fenbendazole (FEN) in liquid pig manure and aerobic transformation and sorption in soil and manured soil under laboratory conditions were used for corresponding fate modeling. Processes considered were reversible and irreversible sequestration, mineralization, and metabolization, from which a set of up to 50 different models, both nested and concurrent, was assembled. Five selection criteria served for model selection after parameter fitting: the coefficient of determination, modeling efficiency, a likelihood ratio test, an information criterion, and a determinability measure. From the set of models selected, processes were classified as essential or sufficient. This strategy to identify process dominance was corroborated through application to data from analogous experiments for sulfadiazine and a comparison with established fate models for this substance. For both, FLU and FEN, model selection performance was fine, including indication of weak data support where observed. For FLU reversible and irreversible sequestration in a nonextractable fraction was determined. In particular, both the extractable and the nonextractable fraction were equally sufficient sources for irreversible sequestration. For FEN generally reversible formation of the extractable sulfoxide metabolite and reversible sequestration of both the parent and the metabolite were dominant. Similar to FLU, irreversible sequestration in the nonextractable fraction was determined for which both the extractable or the nonextractable fraction were equally sufficient sources. Formation of the sulfone metabolite was determined as irreversible, originating from the first metabolite.