Sytze A. Rienstra

The social support for policy measures in passenger transport: a statistical analysis for the Netherlands

This paper empirically analyses the social feasibility of a wide range of transport policy measures. After a literature review, some general results of a project on the support for transport policy measures in the Netherlands are discussed. Next, a statistical analysis of opinions of various relevant subgroups of citizens is carried out. It appears that safety problems are considered most important from an individual point of view, while environmental problems are most severe from a social point of view. Measures with small direct effects on the behaviour of respondents are generally regarded as most effective by the respondents. The support for safety measures is highest, while perceived problems and effectiveness as well as personal features also influence the support for policy measures. It is concluded that the social support for transport policy measures and packages can be increased by attending to these underlying factors.

Lessons from Private Financing of Transport Infrastructure : Dutch Infrastructure in the 19th Century and European projects in the 20th Century

In the past decade serious doubts have been expressed on the efficiency of a strong public financial involvement in infrastructure. This provokes the question whether financing of infrastructure should be a task of the government. For this purpose, the paper first presents a concise theoretical overview under which circumstances there is a case for public intervention. Interestingly, the financing and operation of transport infrastructure has not always been the task of the public sector. In the 19th century, the railway infrastructure in Europe was financed and operated by the private sector. Later, the government took over more and more responsibilities. This paper analyses then for the Netherlands the reasons for the government to take over the financing of infrastructure, in order to draw conclusions for the present and the future. Also in the 20th century many European projects have been privately financed. In the third part of the paper an overview is presented of several projects (e.g., Channel Tunnel, Mont Blanc Tunnel, Dartford Bridge, Dutch tunnels, Storebelt, etc.) as well as an analysis of the circumstances under which these are economically

Are entrepreneurs' forecasts of economic indicators biased?

Insight into the investment behaviour of firms is central in understanding economic dynamics. A critical question, however, is whether firms provide sufficiently reliable data to enable them to make plausible forecasts at the meso (regional or sectoral) level. This paper analyses Dutch investment forecasts at different levels of aggregation. The central research question is whether entrepreneurs, individually or as a group, make systematic errors in their investment forecasts. A statistical test reveals that investment forecasts are not biased at the aggregated (regional and sectoral) level. At the micro level, however, there is a significant bias. Hence, using aggregated (regional and sectoral) data to test the lack of bias (unbiasedness) of forecasts may lead to the wrong conclusions. Moreover, aggregated investment forecasts may then be an inappropriate source for policy recommendations, despite their seemingly high reliability. This finding may in principle be valid for many European countries, since data collection on investment is organized in similar ways throughout Europe.