T. M. L. Wigley

Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods

A range of different statistical downscaling models was calibrated using both observed and general circulation model (GCM) generated daily precipitation time series and intercompared. The GCM used was the U.K. Meteorological Office, Hadley Centres coupled ocean/atmosphere model (HadCM2) forced by combined CO2 and sulfate aerosol changes. Climate model results for 1980–1999 (present) and 2080–2099 (future) were used, for six regions across the United States. The downscaling methods compared were different weather generator techniques (the standard “WGEN” method, and a method based on spell-length durations), two different methods using grid point vorticity data as an atmospheric predictor variable (B-Circ and C-Circ), and two variations of an artificial neural network (ANN) transfer function technique using circulation data and circulation plus temperature data as predictor variables. Comparisons of results were facilitated by using standard sets of observed and GCM-derived predictor variables and by using a standard suite of diagnostic statistics. Significant differences in the level of skill were found among the downscaling methods. The weather generation techniques, which are able to fit a number of daily precipitation statistics exactly, yielded the smallest differences between observed and simulated daily precipitation. The ANN methods performed poorly because of a failure to simulate wet-day occurrence statistics adequately. Changes in precipitation between the present and future scenarios produced by the statistical downscaling methods were generally smaller than those produced directly by the GCM. Changes in daily precipitation produced by the GCM between 1980–1999 and 2080–2099 were therefore judged not to be due primarily to changes in atmospheric circulation. In the light of these results and detailed model comparisons, suggestions for future research and model refinements are presented.

Northern hemisphere surface air temperature variations: 1851–1984

Abstract A new compilation of monthly mean surface air temperature for the Northern Hemisphere for 1851–1984 is presented based on land-based meteorological station data and fixed-position weather ship data. This compilation differs from others in two ways. First, a considerable amount of new data, previously hidden away in archives, has been included, thus improving both spatial and temporal coverage. Second, the station data have been analyzed to assess their homogeneity. Only reliable or corrected station data have been used in calculating area averages. Grid point temperature estimates have been made by interpolating onto a 5° latitude by 10° longitude grid for each month of the 134 years. In the period of best data coverage, 58% of the area of the Northern Hemisphere is covered by the available data network. (The remaining area is mainly ocean too far from land-based stations to warrant extrapolation.) The reliability of hemispheric estimates is assessed for earlier periods when coverage is less than...

Global patterns of ENSO‐induced precipitation

Although there have been many analyses of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induced precipitation anomalies, global patterns from these analyses remain incomplete. Here we combine recent satellite estimates of oceanic precipitation and historical rain-gauge records to derive a global climatology of ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses. The patterns suggest that the re-arrangement of convection centers of the Walker circulation during ENSO events induces large precipitation anomalies in the tropics, while associated changes in the monsoon systems (through the Hadley cell) over the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and their interactions with midlatitude westerlies generate coherent anomaly patterns over the extratropics. Our results can be used to evaluate climate models and forecast ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies.

Precipitation predictors for downscaling: observed and general circulation model relationships

Because of the coarse resolution of general circulation models (GCM), ‘downscaling’ techniques have emerged as a means of relating meso-scale atmospheric variables to grid- and sub-grid-scale surface variables. This study investigates these relationships. As a precursor, inter-variable correlations were investigated within a suite of 15 potential downscaling predictor variables on a daily time-scale for six regions in the conterminous USA, and observed correlations were compared with those based on the HadCM2 coupled ocean/atmosphere GCM. A comparison was then made of observed and model correlations between daily precipitation occurrence (a time series of zeroes and ones) and wet-day amounts and the 15 predictors. These two analyses provided new insights into model performance and provide results that are central to the choice of predictor variables in downscaling of daily precipitation. Also determined were the spatial character of relationships between observed daily precipitation and both mean sea-level pressure (mslp) and atmospheric moisture and daily precipitation for selected regions. The question of whether the same relationships are replicated by HadCM2 was also examined. This allowed the assessment of the spatial consistency of key predictor–predictand relationships in observed and HadCM2 data. Finally, the temporal stability of these relationships in the GCM was examined. Little difference between results for 1980–1999 and 2080–2099 was observed. For correlations between predictor variables, observed and model results were generally similar, providing strong evidence of the overall physical realism of the model. For correlations with precipitation, the results are less satisfactory. For example, model precipitation is more strongly dependent on surface divergence and specific humidity than observed precipitation, while the latter has a stronger link to 500 hPa divergence than is evident in the model. These results suggest possible deficiencies in the model precipitation process, and may indicate that the model overestimates future changes in precipitation. Correlation field patterns for mslp versus precipitation are remarkably similar for observed data and HadCM2 output. Differences in the correlation fields for specific humidity are more noticeable, especially in summer. In many cases, maximum correlations between precipitation and mslp occurred away from the grid box; whereas correlations with specific humidity were largest when the data were propinquitous. This suggests that the choice of predictor variable and the corresponding predictor domain, in terms of location and spatial extent, are critical factors affecting the realism and stability of downscaled precipitation scenarios. Copyright

Mass transfer and carbon isotope evolution in natural water systems

This paper presents a theoretical treatment of the evolution of the carbon isotopes C13 and C14 in natural waters and in precipitates which derive from such waters. The effects of an arbitrary number of sources (such as dissolution of carbonate minerals and oxidation of organic material) and sinks (such as mineral precipitation, CO2 degassing and production of methane), and of equilibrium fractionation between solid, gas and aqueous phases are considered. The results are expressed as equations relating changes in isotopic composition to changes in conventional carbonate chemistry. One implication of the equations is that the isotopic composition of an aqueous phase may approach a limiting value whenever there are simultaneous inputs and outputs of carbonate. In order to unambiguously interpret isotopic data from carbonate precipitates and identify reactants and products in reacting natural waters, it is essential that isotopic changes are determined chiefly by reactant and product stoichiometry, independent of reaction path. We demonstrate that this is so by means of quantitative examples. The evolution equations are applied to: 1. (1) carbon-14 dating of groundwaters; 2. (2) interpretation of the isotopic composition of carbonate precipitates, carbonate cements and diagenetically altered carbonates; and 3. (3) the identification of chemical reaction stoichiometry. These applications are illustrated by examples which show the variation of δC13 in solutions and in precipitates formed under a variety of conditions involving incongruent dissolution, CO2 degassing, methane production and mineral precipitation.

Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content

Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m2 per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated “fingerprint” pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint “match” is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earths atmosphere.

Mixing of carbonate waters

Abstract When mineral solutions of different compositions are mixed, the molalities and activities of individual ions in the mixture are often non-linear functions of their end-member values. This non-linearity is particularly significant in determining mineral saturation levels. Mixtures of saturated solutions may be either undersaturated or supersaturated depending on the end-member compositions and the physical conditions in which end-members and their mixtures exist. In carbonate solutions important non-linear effects occur due to redistribution of carbonate species. In extreme cases this causes mixture pH to be below both the end-member pH values. A simple but precise computer program (WATMIX) has been developed for calculating mixture composition for closed and open system mixing of arbitrary end-members. A number of mixing examples are considered which allow one to isolate three important processes leading to non-linear behaviour: the algebraic effect, the δPCO2 effect, and the ionic strength effect.

The dissolution of calcite in CO2-saturated solutions at 25°C and 1 atmosphere total pressure

The dissolution of Iceland spar in CO2-saturated solutions at 25°C and 1 atm total pressure has been followed by measurement of pH as a function of time. Surface concentrations of reactant and product species have been calculated from bulk fluid data using mass transport theory and a model that accounts for homogeneous reactions in the bulk fluid. The surface concentrations are found to be close to bulk solution values. This indicates that calcite dissolution under the experimental conditions is controlled by the kinetics of surface reaction. The rate of calcite dissolution follows an empirical second order relation with respect to calcium and hydrogen ion from near the initial condition (pH 3.91) to approximately pH 5.9. Beyond pH 5.9 the rate of surface reaction is greatly reduced and higher reaction orders are observed. Calculations show that the rate of calcite dissolution in natural environments may be influenced by both transport and surface-reaction processes. In the absence of inhibition, relatively short times should be sufficient to establish equilibrium.

Variations in Surface Air Temperatures: Part 1. Northern Hemisphere, 1881–1980

Abstract We have produced, using objective techniques, a long-term series of average Northern Hemisphere temperatures based on monthly mean station data gridded on a 5° latitude by 10° longitude grid. Difficulties in the estimation of this parameter are discussed, deficiencies in the currently available data base and possible effects on the estimated average are described, and monthly mean data are presented. Long-term trends and extremes are identified in the annual and seasonal data. All seasons show similar long-term trends, but there are noticeable differences on time scales of 10 years and less. For example, for winter temperature, the early 20th century warming peaked during the 1940s whereas the maximum in the other seasons was in the previous decade. Both the magnitude of the long-term trends and the year-to-year variability has been greatest in winter. There is evidence that the long-term cooling that characterized the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s has ended. Warming began in the mid to late 1960s ...

Climate and sea level change : observations, projections, and implications

Part I. Overview: 1. Climate and sea level change: a synthesis Part II. Data: 2. Mean sea level changes in the recent past 3. Recent global sea levels and land levels 4. Improving sea level data 5. Global absolute sea level: the Hawaiian and US Atlantic coast-Bermuda regional networks 6. Long-term changes in eustatic sea level Part III. Projections: 7. Future changes in global mean temperature and sea level 8. Possible future contributions to sea level change from small glaciers 9. Possible changes in the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and their effects on sea level 10. The Antarctic Peninsula contribution to future sea level rise 11. Model projections of CO2-induced equilibrium climate change 12. Observational data on the relationships between climatic change and the frequency and magnitude of severe tropical storms Part IV. Impacts and Case Studies: 13. Geographic information systems and future sea level rise 14. The storm surge problem and possible effects of sea level changes on coastal flooding in the Bay of Bengal 15. Geographical complexities of detailed impact assessment for the Ganges-Brahmaputra Meghna delta of Bangladesh 16. Possible impacts of, and adjustments to, sea level rise the cases of Bangladesh and Egypt 17. Impacts of sea level rise on coastal systems with special emphasis son the Mississippi River deltaic plain 18. Sea level rise: assessing the problems 19. Adjustment to greenhouse gas induced sea level rise on the Norfolk coast - a case study 20. What will happen to The Netherlands if sea level rise accelerates? 21. The vulnerability of the east coast of South America to sea level rise and possible adjustment strategies 22. Future sea level rise in Hong Kong and possible environmental effects Part V. Summaries and Recommendations: 23. Sea level changes 24. Severe tropical storms and storm surges 25. Regional effects of sea level rise.