T. Scott Findley

Time Inconsistency and Retirement Choice

Hyperbolic discounting with naivete is widely believed to provide a better explanation than exponential discounting of why people borrow so much and why they wait so long to save for retirement. We reach a different set of conclusions. We show that if financial planning is enriched to include the choice of when to retire, then naive hyperbolic discounters may borrow far less and start saving for retirement significantly earlier than exponential discounters.

Discount Functions and Self-Control Problems

In this paper we propose a new strategy for comparing the behavior of a hyperbolic discounter who possesses self-control problems to an exponential discounter who does not. Our strategy controls for inherent differences in overall levels of impatience across discount functions, which thereby allows us to isolate the pure effect of self-control problems. We argue that self-control problems, in their pure form as we identify them, can have a very surprising effect on intertemporal choices. Our method reveals that differences in decision making that could be attributed to self-control problems are at least partly (and perhaps entirely) just an artifact of an uncontrolled comparison.

Does it pay to be SMarT

The Save More Tomorrow plan has proven effective at raising employee saving rates and appears to be popular among participants and the media. An important question has remained on the minds of economists despite this success: just how close does the prescriptive SMarT plan come to approximating the normative life-cycle/permanent-income consumption rule? That is, does it pay (in a lifetime utility sense) to participate in a SMarT plan? We attempt to provide some rigorous answers to this question by employing a quantitative-theoretic model to perform dynamic welfare analysis, and our results tend to support the SMarT plan as a decent first approximation to the life-cycle/permanent-income rule. We also consider the problem of an altruistic employer seeking to maximize the lifetime utility of employees by appropriately choosing the default SMarT parameters in the face of employee heterogeneity in saving rates and uncertainty about whether they will actually stick with the plan. The employers problem is augmented to include employee heterogeneity concerning risk taking, and we also consider the possibility that SMarT saving may be met with increased borrowing.

Time Inconsistency and Retirement Planning

We quantify the welfare gains from better retirement planning using a model in which retirement planning is time inconsistent. A modest increase in a household’s planning horizon by just a few years generates large aggregate and individual welfare gains.

Commitment and Welfare

The standard approach to welfare analysis under dynamically inconsistent preferences is to assume that the welfare of an individual is maximized if he can commit to his initial goal. We study a potential rationale for such welfare analysis. In some prominent, well-studied examples with intertemporal tradeoffs (like the choice between investing in a project now or later, doing an unpleasant task now or procrastinating it until later, and eating a cake), we find that the commitment allocation can multiself Pareto dominate the non-cooperative equilibrium allocation if the number of time-dated selves exceeds a low threshold. While a common concern with behavioral welfare analysis is that the later selves of an individual are unfairly hurt as a result of committing the individual to his initial goal, our findings indicate that this concern may be more relevant for settings where the number of sequential choices is very low.

Hedonic Valuation of Land Protection Methods: Implications for Cluster Development

This study estimates a generalized spatial hedonic pricing model to assess how residential property values are impacted by inclusion within cluster developments and by proximity to various types of protected land. The estimated model simultaneously controls for the spatial dependence of residential housing prices and for the presence of spatial autocorrelation. The sample includes 4,008 single-family housing sales transactions within the non-urban portions of Larimer County in northern Colorado. The empirical framework accounts for topographical diversity across the study region, as well as distinguishing between several distinct types of publicly and privately protected land. The key findings of the study are: (i) proximity to national or state park land and to city or county open space has a significant positive impact on property values, while proximity to national forest land or to privately conserved land exhibits no significant effects; and, (ii) inclusion of a property within a cluster development decreases its value by 17 to 26 %. These findings are robust to different estimation techniques and model specifications, which suggests important considerations for policymakers who design development rules and alternative land protection measures aimed at preserving open space in non-urban areas.

Myopia, Education, and Optimal Social Security

A potential role of social security is to protect individuals who have accumulated little or no assets for retirement. Yet, this type of social safety net could reduce human capital formation by making the life-cycle financial rewards from education less attractive. For example, social security tax rates are correlated negatively with tertiary educational attainment across OECD countries. We construct a continuous-time overlapping-generations model with endogenous school duration that can account for this correlation, and we use the model to compute the social security tax rate that maximizes steady-state social welfare in general equilibrium. Social security in the model provides protection for retirees who arrive at retirement with no assets, and it can also redistribute wealth toward those with low earnings, but the program distorts the level of human and physical capital accumulation. In the presence of these characteristics, the social security tax rate that maximizes steady-state welfare is approximately 10%, which is about half of the average rate of 21% across the OECD. This result is robust to whether the social security program is redistributive or earnings-based.

Dynamic Consistency and Regret

Individuals often report that they regret not having saved more for retirement. This fact raises concerns about the financial security of retirees and about the adequacy of traditional economic models in making predictions that are consistent with regret about having saved too little for retirement. We provide an overview of four discounted utility models and examine their implications for the optimal level of retirement savings. All of these models exhibit dynamically consistent decision making, and some also feature backward discounting in order to generate regret about past saving decisions. In our preferred parameterization with both forward and backward discounting, a 66 year old at retirement will consider the optimal level of retirement savings to be almost twice as large as what was actually saved, even though actual saving decisions are dynamically consistent across the entire life-cycle. Compared to a model setting with fixed retirement, adding choice over retirement timing compounds the regret that individuals experience about past saving decisions.