Tadeusz Galanc

The choice of an optimum group of experts

Abstract In this article an algorithm is presented for the selection of a group of experts for long-range forecasting from a set that has a determined structure of specialization. The selected group of experts should consist of the smallest number of elements and include representatives of each scientific domain in order to ensure reliable information required for determining the particular forecast.

Remarks on the application of statistical games to technological development forecasting

Abstract This work presents the probability of determining a quantitative forecast of technological development S(t) defined by a set m of parameters S(1)(t),S(2)(t),…,S(m)(t), based on statistical game theory. Assuming that the coordinates S(i)(t) (i = 1, 2,…,m) of a forecasted vector S(t) are stochastic processes with given probabilistic characteristics, a formula of a function forecasting the value of a coordinate S(i)(t) of this vector can be obtained. This formula permits to determine a vector of forecasts ŜτT(x) of technological development S(t) at a given moment t = τ+T.

On a probabilistic model of forecasting

One of the methods of studying complex objects is the construction of a mathematical model, containing such information about the object that is necessary to solve a definite problem connected with it. Mathematical modeling, based on the construction of models of various kinds can be used in forecasting. Let a forecasting object A(X) be described by vector X = (X1, X2,…,Xn) whose coordinates are parameters characterizing this object. The work presents a probabilistic model of forecasting and gives the example of a forecast of the object described by a set two parameters.