Taggert J. Brooks

A new criteria for selecting the optimum lags in Johansen's cointegration technique

Several test statistics like Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) are used to select the order of Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR) in Johansens cointegration technique, but not the appropriate cointegrating vector in case of multiple vectors. In this note goodness of fit is introduced as a criterion to select the lag length as well as the appropriate vector simultaneously.

Cointegration Approach to Estimating Bilateral Trade Elasticities Between U.S. and Her Trading Partners

Almost all previous authors who estimated the trade elasticities relied upon aggregate trade data. To avoid the aggregation bias, this paper provides estimates of trade elasticities using bilateral data between the United States and her six largest trading partners. Application of cointegration analysis reveals that in many cases, bilateral trade elasticities are large enough to justify real depreciation of the dollar as a mean of improving U.S. trade balance.[F14]

Deregulation and wages in trucking: A time series phenomenon — A time series approach

The paper approaches measuring the wage effect of trucking deregulation from a new perspective using time series estimation techniques. The trucking wage is modeled as a function of the manufacturing wage and the relationship between these series is measured over time. The wage premium of trucking over manufacturing was found to be deterministic over time with two structural breaks in May 1980 and June 1984. This suggests that deregulations effect on the trucking wage was mainly felt between 1980 and 1984. Using the relationship between the trucking wage and manufacturing wage before deregulation, it was determined that the initial effect of deregulation was to decrease wages 6.99%. This wage effect increased at a decreasing rate over time and by 1995 the cumulative effect was 12.43%.

Examining the relationship between satisfaction, intentions, and post-trip communication behaviour of active event sport tourists

ABSTRACT The establishment of small-scale active sport events continues to rise at destinations around the world. These events draw visitors to a destination for the purpose of engaging in an active sporting event. Tourists visiting a destination for sport events have the potential to become repeat visitors and promoters of the destination to others. Measuring the satisfaction of tourists is a common practice, and satisfied visitors are more likely to express intentions to return to a destination or recommend that destination to others. But do they really speak positively about the destination to others? This study sought to extend the research on the relationship between satisfaction and recommendation behaviour by measuring the post-visit behaviour of active event sport tourists. Participants in a three day bike race event in La Crosse, Wisconsin completed a survey two weeks after the event. Researchers examined their race satisfaction, destination satisfaction, intentions to recommend the destination, and actual post-visit communication behaviour. Results suggest that participants have the capability of differentiating between event and destination satisfaction when evaluating their future intentions. Furthermore, intentions were significantly correlated with actual post-visit recommendation behaviour, including posting positive messages on social media. Intentions to recommend did not significantly correlate with the frequency of pictures or videos shared on social media.