Taher Osman

Driving factors of urban sprawl in Giza governorate of the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region using a logistic regression model

ABSTRACT Since the 1950s, The Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region (GCMR) has witnessed an unprecedented rate of urban sprawl that has been mainly concentrated in arable lands against urban planning regulations, and has presented a critical challenge to the urban environment and serious corrosion for arable lands. Thus, the need to identify the driving factor of sprawl is crucial to understand the future of the GCMR urban environment and to overcome the serious challenges of rapid urbanization. We focused on the Giza governorate as a critical area in the GCMR and divided it into three sub-sectors to collect data and analyse. A primary list of driving factors was identified by literature review. Later this list was narrowed down to seven factors after interviews with local urban experts and consideration of the availability of data. Next, a logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate those factors with data derived from existing maps and remotely sensed data for the period of 2004–2013. An operating characteristic (ROC) evaluation of the logistic regression analysis gave high accuracy rates for the entire study area. The findings of the research revealed decreasing significance of the CBD and Nile River as drivers of sprawl. The most significant factors according to the analysis were neighbourhood factors, local urban centres, and accessibility factors of distances to urban uses and major roads. The research suggests more future urban expansion by the existing urban cores and along major roads, leading to more informal urban settlements. It also points to the possibility of persistent deterioration in the urban built environment and agricultural lands. Thus, these findings should be applied to actual urban planning policies, and development regulations should be strengthened to protect the urban environment from further deterioration.

Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on land use in the Giza Governorate, Greater Cairo Metropolitan region

ABSTRACT The goal of this paper was to find an appropriate urban policy to preserve arable land that is being consumed by highly accelerated urban growth in the Giza Governorate of the Greater Cairo Metropolitan region for the last 50 years. We simulated three different urban policies and relevant growth scenarios for Giza from 2015 to 2035 by using the SLEUTH model to investigate their effects on arable lands. The first scenario used historical growth trends to simulate the persistent growth trends under existing conditions. The second was a compact growth scenario with robust restrictions on development in areas outside of designated growth centres. The third scenario considered officially planned growth that integrated stricter growth plans and stronger protections on lands with natural resources at a level that could be realistically accomplished with strong political commitments. The input data required by the model, including slope, land use, exclusion, and urban growth, transportation, and hill shade were derived from three Landsat satellite images from 1984, 2000, and 2013, according to supervised classifications. The simulation results found that the compact growth policy scenario had the least negative impact on arable lands, while the historical growth scenario had the worst impact.

Exploring the Challenges for Effective Spatial Planning in New Urban Development: The Case of Ecotourism in Egypt

Egypt is embarking on an ambitious National Strategy of new urban development, which includes the establishment of many new settlements. History has shown, here, as with many other developing countries, technical plans are formulated, without effective mechanisms for implementation. Instead, the plans end up gathering dust on the shelves of national agencies or local government with limited improvements on local economic or environmental well-being evident on the ground. This is attributed to the difficulties in understanding competing interests, and the lack of effective contribution of diverse stakeholders in the planning process. Current plan-making processes can be characterised by a central government monopoly in decision-making. This combined with fragmented government agencies lead to multiple, and often conflicting spatial plans for the same location. This chapter seeks to highlight such deficiencies through an exploration of recent ecotourism development proposals in Egypt. By drawing upon a critical documentary review of specific case studies, and semi-structured interviews with 56 ecotourism experts, and stakeholders, the analysis suggests that stakeholder engagement was tokenistic, with a particular central government agenda still dominant. If the aspirations of Egypt’s new urban development are to be fully realised, then more effective collaboration between stakeholders, at all levels, is crucial.