Takashi Kurosaki

Insurance market efficiency and crop choices in Pakistan

This paper tests the efficiency of insurance markets in the Pakistan Punjab by examining how crop choices are affected by the presence of price and yield risk. We estimate reduced-form and structural models of crop choices. Although we cannot reject the hypothesis that village members efficiently share risk among themselves, production choices are shown to depend on risk. Existing risk sharing and self-insurance mechanisms thus imperfectly protect Punjab farmers against village-level shocks. Results also indicate that households respond to consumption price risk, thereby suggesting that empirical and theoretical work on risk should avoid putting an exclusive emphasis on yield and output price risk.

Consumption vulnerability to risk in rural Pakistan

Abstract As one of the dimensions of vulnerability, this paper empirically investigates the inability of rural dwellers to cope with negative income shocks. A variable coefficient regression model is applied to a two-period household panel dataset collected in the North-West Frontier Province, Pakistan, an area with high incidence of income poverty and low human development. The empirical model allows for a different ability to smooth consumption, approximated by a linear function of households’ attributes, and controls for the endogeneity of observed changes in income, using qualitative information on subjective risk assessment. Estimation results show that the ability to cope with negative income shocks is lower for households that are aged, landless and do not receive remittances regularly.

Specialization and Diversification in Agricultural Transformation: The Case of West Punjab, 1903–92

In this article, the role of crop specialization and diversification in agricultural transformation is investigated empirically. Changes in aggregate land productivity are associated structurally with inter-crop and inter-district reallocation of land use. Results from a region with the oldest history of agricultural commercialization in developing countries show that cropping patterns of subsistence agriculture changed substantially, with rising concentration of crop acreage in districts with higher and growing productivity. Rapid specialization in crop production was observed at the district level recently, after a phase with sporadic specialization. These changes reflected comparative advantage and contributed to the improvement in aggregate land productivity. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Human Capital, Productivity, and Stratification in Rural Pakistan

This paper investigates the effects of human capital on productivity using micro panel data of rural households in the North-West Frontier Province, Pakistan, where a substantial job stratification is observed in terms of income and education. To clarify the mechanism underlying this stratification, the human capital effects are estimated for wages (individual level) and for self-employed activities (household level), and for farm and non-farm sectors. Estimation results show a clear contrast between farm and non-farm sectors-wages and productivity in non-farm activities rise with education at an increasing rate, whereas those in agriculture respond only to the primary education. Copyright

Vulnerability of Household Consumption to Floods and Droughts in Developing Countries: Evidence from Pakistan

Aggregate shocks such as droughts and floods cannot be perfectly insured by risk sharing within a village. Given this inability, what type of households are more vulnerable in terms of a decline in consumption when a village is hit by such shocks and what kind of microeconomic mechanism underlies the household heterogeneity in vulnerability? These questions are investigated using two-period panel data collected in rural Pakistan in 2001 and 2004. We compare consumption response to droughts, floods, and health shocks and investigate how the response differs across different types of households. Empirical results show that the impact of droughts was negligible, younger and more landed households were less vulnerable to floods, and households with greater access to formal financial institutions were less vulnerable to idiosyncratic health shocks. The empirical pattern suggests the possibility of risk sharing among households that are heterogeneous in both risk aversion and credit access.

Crop choice, farm income, and political control in Myanmar

Myanmars agricultural economy has been under transition from a planned to a market system since the late 1980s and has experienced a substantial increase in production. However, little research is available on the impact of economic policies in this country on agricultural production decisions and rural incomes. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact using a micro dataset collected in 2001 and covering more than 500 households in eight villages with diverse agro-ecological environments. Regression analyses focusing on within-village variations in cropping patterns show that the acreage share under non-lucrative paddy crops was higher for farmers who were under tighter control of the local administration due to their political vulnerability. Simulation results based on the regression estimates show that the loss in rural incomes due to farmers being forced to grow too much paddy was not negligible.

Dynamics of Household Assets and Income Shocks in the Long-Run Process of Economic Development: The Case of Rural Pakistan

This paper analyzes the dynamics of assets held by low-income households facing various types of income shocks in pre-independence and post-independence Pakistan. Focusing on the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North–West Frontier Province or NWFP), the paper first investigates long-run data at the district level beginning 1902. Results show that the population of livestock, the major asset of rural households, experienced a persistent decline after crop shocks due to droughts, but did not respond much to the Great Depression. In the post-independence period, crop agriculture continued to be vulnerable to natural disasters, although less substantially so, while the response of livestock to such shocks was indiscernible from district-level data. To examine microeconomic mechanisms underlying such asset dynamics, I analyze a panel dataset collected from approximately 300 households in three villages in the NWFP during the late 1990s. Results show that the dynamics of household landholding and livestock are associated with a single long-run equilibrium. When human capital is included, the dynamics curve changes its shape but this is not sufficiently nonlinear to produce statistically significant multiple equilibriums. The size of livestock holding was reduced in all villages hit by macroeconomic stagnation, while land depletion was reported only in a village with inferior access to markets. The patterns of asset dynamics established from historical and contemporary analyses are consistent with limited but improving access to consumption smoothing measures in the study region over the century.

How Does Credit Access Affect Children's Time Allocation?: Evidence from Rural India

Abstract Using a unique dataset obtained from rural Andhra Pradesh, India that contains direct observations of household access to credit and detailed time use, results of this study indicate that credit market failures result in a substantial reallocation of time use pattern by children, leading to a significant increase in remunerative work and a similarly significant decrease in leisure time. While the direct impact on schooling time per se does not appear to be large, longer work and shorter leisure could arguably constrain effective learning opportunities of children, hampering human capital formation.

How does contract design affect the uptake of microcredit among the ultra-poor?: experimental evidence from the river islands of Northern Bangladesh

Abstract This study examines the demand of microcredit among ultra-poor households in northern Bangladesh. We implemented a field experiment to identify what type of credit is best suited to their demand. We found that the uptake rate by the ultra-poor is the lowest for regular small cash credit, followed by in-kind credit. We also found that the ultra-poor are significantly more likely to join a microcredit programme than the moderately poor if a grace period with longer maturity is attached to a large amount of credit, irrespective of whether the credit is provided in cash or in kind.

The Agriculture–Macroeconomy Growth Link in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh: 1900–2000

Using a long-term dataset that correspond to the current borders for the period c.1900–2000, Chapter 8 investigates the agriculture–macroeconomy growth link in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The empirical results show a long-term decline in the share of agriculture in GDP in all three regions, including the colonial period when per-capita GDP stagnated. They also show two structural changes. The first one occurred between pre- and post-1947 periods in India and Bangladesh. The portion of non-agricultural growth that can be attributable to agricultural growth increased substantially after Partition in 1947. The second one occurred around the 1970s–1980s in all the three countries, when non-agricultural growth that occurred autonomously became the main engine of macroeconomic growth.