Takeshi Doi

Equatorial Atlantic variability and its relation to mean state biases in CMIP5

Coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analyzed with respect to their performance in the equatorial Atlantic. In terms of the mean state, 29 out of 33 models examined continue to suffer from serious biases including an annual mean zonal equatorial SST gradient whose sign is opposite to observations. Westerly surface wind biases in boreal spring play an important role in the reversed SST gradient by deepening the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and thus reducing upwelling efficiency and SST cooling in the following months. Both magnitude and seasonal evolution of the biases are very similar to what was found previously for CMIP3 models, indicating that improvements have only been modest. The weaker than observed equatorial easterlies are also simulated by atmospheric GCMs forced with observed SST. They are related to both continental convection and the latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Particularly the latter has a strong influence on equatorial zonal winds in both the seasonal cycle and interannual variability. The dependence of equatorial easterlies on ITCZ latitude shows a marked asymmetry. From the equator to 15°N, the equatorial easterlies intensify approximately linearly with ITCZ latitude. When the ITCZ is south of the equator, on the other hand, the equatorial easterlies are uniformly weak. Despite serious mean state biases, several models are able to capture some aspects of the equatorial mode of interannual SST variability, including amplitude, pattern, phase locking to boreal summer, and duration of events. The latitudinal position of the boreal spring ITCZ, through its influence on equatorial surface winds, appears to play an important role in initiating warm events.

Biases in the Atlantic ITCZ in Seasonal–Interannual Variations for a Coarse- and a High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model

AbstractUsing two fully coupled ocean–atmosphere models—Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1), developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Climate Model version 2.5 (CM2.5), a new high-resolution climate model based on CM2.1—the characteristics and sources of SST and precipitation biases associated with the Atlantic ITCZ have been investigated.CM2.5 has an improved simulation of the annual mean and the annual cycle of the rainfall over the Sahel and northern South America, while CM2.1 shows excessive Sahel rainfall and lack of northern South America rainfall in boreal summer. This marked improvement in CM2.5 is due to not only high-resolved orography but also a significant reduction of biases in the seasonal meridional migration of the ITCZ. In particular, the seasonal northward migration of the ITCZ in boreal summer is coupled to the seasonal variation of SST and a subsurface doming of the thermocline in the northeastern tropical Atlantic, known as the Guinea Dome. Improvements in the ITCZ al...

The Atlantic Meridional Mode and Its Coupled Variability with the Guinea Dome

Abstract Using an ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation model, air–sea interaction processes associated with the Atlantic meridional mode are investigated from a new viewpoint of its link with the Guinea Dome in the northern tropical Atlantic. The subsurface thermal oceanic dome develops off Dakar from late spring to late fall owing to wind-induced Ekman upwelling. Its seasonal evolution is due to surface wind variations associated with the northward migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Since the upwelling cools the mixed layer in the Guinea Dome region during summer, it is very important to reproduce its variability in order to simulate the sea surface temperature (SST) there. During the preconditioning phase of the positive (negative) Atlantic meridional mode, the dome is anomalously weak (strong) and the mixed layer is anomalously deep (shallow) there in late fall. This condition reduces (enhances) the sensitivity of the mixed layer temperature to the climatological atmospheri...

Key factors in simulating the equatorial Atlantic zonal sea surface temperature gradient in a coupled general circulation model

Causes of the coupled model bias in simulating the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial Atlantic are examined in three versions of the same coupled general circulation model (CGCM) differing only in the cumulus convection scheme. One version of the CGCM successfully simulates the mean zonal SST gradient of the equatorial Atlantic, in contrast to the failure of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 models. The present analysis shows that key factors to be successful are high skills in simulating the meridional location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the precipitation over northern South America, and the southerly winds along the west coast of Africa associated with the West African monsoon in boreal spring. Model biases in the Pacific contribute to the weaker precipitation over northern South America. Uncoupled experiments with the atmospheric component further confirm the importance of remote influences on the development of the equatorial Atlantic bias. Key Points: The zonal SST gradient of the equatorial Atlantic is well simulated in a CGCM; Key factors for the realistic simulation of the Atlantic SST are presented; Remote forcing from the Pacific may contribute to the Atlantic SST bias

Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Oceanic Conditions in the Angola Dome

Using outputs from a high-resolution OGCM, seasonal and interannual variations of the Angola Dome (AD) are revisited. Although the AD was previously considered to be one large cold tongue extending from the West African coast, it is shown that two cold domes exist. These two domes have remarkably different mechanisms for their seasonal variation. The weak dome, whose center is located at 6°S, 1°E, develops from May to September owing to the divergence of heat transport associated with upwelling. The strong dome, on the other hand, extends from the west coast of Africa between 20° and 15°S, and develops from April to August by the surface heat flux. The interannual variation of the weak dome is strongly influenced by the Atlantic Nino. An unusual relaxation of easterly wind stress in the central equatorial Atlantic Ocean associated with the Atlantic Nino triggers second baroclinic downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves, which propagate eastward along the equator and poleward along the coast after reaching the African coast as coastal Kelvin waves. Then, downwelling Rossby waves radiate away from the coast and cause significant warming in the weak dome region. The interannual variation of the South Equatorial Undercurrent may be associated with that of the AD; its transport decreases by 0.6 Sv, and its core shifts equatorward by 0.2° when the AD is anomalously weak.

Predictability of the Ningaloo Niño/Niña.

The seasonal prediction of the coastal oceanic warm event off West Australia, recently named the Ningaloo Niño, is explored by use of a state-of-the-art ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model. The Ningaloo Niño/Niña, which generally matures in austral summer, is found to be predictable two seasons ahead. In particular, the unprecedented extreme warm event in February 2011 was successfully predicted 9 months in advance. The successful prediction of the Ningaloo Niño is mainly due to the high prediction skill of La Niña in the Pacific. However, the model deficiency to underestimate its early evolution and peak amplitude needs to be improved. Since the Ningaloo Niño/Niña has potential impacts on regional societies and industries through extreme events, the present success of its prediction may encourage development of its early warning system.

What controls equatorial Atlantic winds in boreal spring

The factors controlling equatorial Atlantic winds in boreal spring are examined using both observations and general circulation model (GCM) simulations from the coupled model intercomparison phase 5. The results show that the prevailing surface easterlies flow against the attendant pressure gradient and must therefore be maintained by other terms in the momentum budget. An important contribution comes from meridional advection of zonal momentum but the dominant contribution is the vertical transport of zonal momentum from the free troposphere to the surface. This implies that surface winds are strongly influenced by conditions in the free troposphere, chiefly pressure gradients and, to a lesser extent, meridional advection. Both factors are linked to the patterns of deep convection. Applying these findings to GCM errors indicates, that, consistent with the results of previous studies, the persistent westerly surface wind bias found in most GCMs is due mostly to precipitation errors, in particular excessive precipitation south of the equator over the ocean and deficient precipitation over equatorial South America. Free tropospheric influences also dominate the interannual variability of surface winds in boreal spring. GCM experiments with prescribed climatological sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) indicate that the free tropospheric influences are mostly associated with internal atmospheric variability. Since the surface wind anomalies in boreal spring are crucial to the development of warm SST events (Atlantic Niños), the results imply that interannual variability in the region may rely far less on coupled air–sea feedbacks than is the case in the tropical Pacific.

Distinctive precursory air–sea signals between regular and super El Niños

Statistically different precursory air–sea signals between a super and a regular El Niño group are investigated, using observed SST and rainfall data, and oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data. The El Niño events during 1958–2008 are first separated into two groups: a super El Niño group (S-group) and a regular El Niño group (R-group). Composite analysis shows that a significantly larger SST anomaly (SSTA) tendency appears in S-group than in R-group during the onset phase [April–May(0)], when the positive SSTA is very small. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the tendency difference arises primarily from the difference in zonal advective feedback and the associated zonal current anomaly (u′). This is attributed to the difference in the thermocline depth anomaly (D′) over the off-equatorial western Pacific prior to the onset phase, as revealed by three ocean assimilation products. Such a difference in D′ is caused by the difference in the wind stress curl anomaly in situ, which is mainly regulated by the anomalous SST and precipitation over the Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific.

An interdecadal regime shift in rainfall predictability related to the Ningaloo Niño in the late 1990s

The global warming and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) started influencing the coastal ocean off Western Australia, leading to a dramatic change in the regional climate predictability. The warmer ocean started driving rainfall variability regionally there after the late 1990s. Because of this, rainfall predictability near the coastal region of Western Australia on a seasonal time scale was drastically enhanced in the late 1990s; it is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after the late 1990s. The high prediction skill of the rainfall in recent decades is very encouraging and would help to develop an early warning system of Ningaloo Nino/Nina events to mitigate possible societal as well as agricultural impacts in the granary of Western Australia.

The influence of ENSO on the equatorial Atlantic precipitation through the Walker circulation in a CGCM

The link between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Atlantic precipitation during boreal spring (March–April–May) is explored using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Interannual variability of the equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in the CGCM is excluded by nudging the modeled SST toward the climatological monthly mean of observed SST in the equatorial Atlantic, but full air–sea coupling is allowed elsewhere. It is found that the equatorial Atlantic precipitation is reduced (increased) during El Niño (La Niña) in the case where the interannual variability of the equatorial Atlantic SST is disabled. The precipitation anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic during ENSO are not strongly associated with the meridional migration of the Atlantic inter-tropical convergence zone. We find the reduced precipitation in the equatorial Atlantic during El Niño is associated with an enhanced Atlantic Walker circulation characterized by strengthened low-level easterlies and anomalous dry, downward winds over the equatorial Atlantic, while the Pacific Walker circulation is weakened. The upper-level anomalous westerlies over the equatorial Atlantic are consistent with a Matsuno–Gill-type response to heating in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Our results of the CGCM experiments suggest that changes to the Walker circulation induced by ENSO contribute significantly to changes in precipitation over the equatorial Atlantic.