Takuya Oki

Simulation Model of Evacuation Behavior Following a Large-Scale Earthquake that Takes into Account Various Attributes of Residents and Transient Occupants

Understanding human behavior, such as waiting, returning home, and evacuation, after a great earthquake is very critical in establishing detailed disaster prevention planning. In the present paper, we construct a simulation model to describe how human behavior varies as a function of physical damage, such as the spread of urban fires and street blockage due to collapsed buildings. The proposed model is applied to a densely built-up area of Tokyo using a database of the spatiotemporal distribution of railroad passengers, automobile users, and pedestrians. Using the model, we attempt to demonstrate some new findings that can be applied to disaster prevention planning by examining evacuation plans and various settings in earthquake simulations.

Urban Improvement Policies for Reducing Human Damage in a Large Earthquake by Using Wide-Area Evacuation Simulation Incorporating Rescue and Firefighting by Local Residents

In Japan, there are still many densely built-up wooden residential areas. For estimating the effects of specific measures for disaster mitigation, we utilize an agent-based simulation system, which can describe property damage (such as building-collapse, street-blockage, and fire-spread) and activities of local residents (including rescue, firefighting, and evacuation) in a large earthquake. More specifically, we compare the effects of the following policies of improving cities for reducing property and human damage (the number of burnt-down buildings and casualties): (1) installing fire-extinguishers for all households; (2) installing seismo-sensitive breakers for all households; and (3) improving specific streets and their roadside buildings.

CHOICE BEHAVIOR OF STOPOVER-STATION BY RAILWAY USERS ON THEIR WAY HOME

Railway commuters often make stopover at various stations for eating or shopping on their way home. In this paper, we construct a multinomial logit model, which describes their choice behavior of stopover-stations on their way home. Analyzing the person trip data obtained in three different time (1988, 1998, and 2008) by the proposed model, we discuss the attractiveness of stopover-stations from the viewpoint of attributes of railway commuters and the purpose of stopover. In addition, as an application of the model, we estimate the change of attractiveness of stopover-stations, by assuming increase of the number of commercial facilities around the specific stations or the change of railway network.