Tammy Schirle

Why Have the Labor Force Participation Rates of Older Men Increased since the Mid‐1990s?

This article seeks to explain the substantial increases in older men’s labor force participation rates observed since the mid‐1990s. Using data from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, I exploit the cohort effects driving recent increases in older women’s participation rates to identify the effect of a wife’s participation decision on her husband’s participation decision. I then decompose the changes in older married men’s participation rates, demonstrating that husbands’ responses to increases in wives’ participation in the labor force can explain one‐fourth, one‐half, and one‐third of the increase in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, respectively.

Are recessions really good for your health? Evidence from Canada

This study investigates the relationship between business cycle fluctuations and health in the Canadian context, given that a procyclical relationship between mortality rates and unemployment rates has already been well established in the U.S. literature. Using a fixed effects model and provincial data over the period 1977-2009, we estimate the effect of unemployment rates on Canadian age and gender specific mortality rates. Consistent with U.S. results, there is some evidence of a strong procyclical pattern in the mortality rates of middle-aged Canadians. We find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers the predicted mortality rate of individuals in their 30s by nearly 2 percent. In contrast to the U.S. data, we do not find a significant cyclical pattern in the mortality rates of infants and seniors.

The Growth of Family Earnings Inequality in Canada, 1980-2005

In this study we document recent trends in family earnings inequality using data from the Canadian Census and provide insight into the various factors that drive changes in the family earnings distribution. Over the period 1980-95 we observe substantial increases in family earnings inequality. In contrast, we find that some decrease in inequality occurred over the period 1995-2005 although the earnings of the richest 1 percent of families increased substantially. We use semi-parametric decomposition methods to show that increases in the employment rates of men and women, increases in their educational attainment, and decreases in assortative mating tended to have equalizing effects on the family earnings distribution. We also show that increases in the returns to higher education and increases in the proportion of single individuals as well as lone-parent families drove increases in family earnings inequality.

Senior Poverty in Canada: A Decomposition Analysis

Cet article présente les résultats d’une analyse par décomposition des taux de pauvreté chez les personnes âgées que j’ai effectuée afin de déterminer si certaines caractéristiques des personnes âgées peuvent ou non expliquer les variations historiques de ces taux. J’ai fait cette analyse à partir des données de l’Enquête sur les finances des consommateurs (EFC) et de l’Enquête sur la dynamique du travail et du revenu (EDTR) portant sur les années 1977–1979, 1994–1996 et 2006–2008. Mes résultats montrent que, entre 1977 et 1979 et entre 1994 et 1996, un niveau d’instruction plus élevé était lié à des taux de pauvreté beaucoup moins élevés chez les personnes âgées. De plus, quand l’importance de l’âge et du fait d’avoir une vie autonome en tant que facteurs de risque liés à la pauvreté des personnes âgées diminue, les taux de pauvreté diminuent aussi substantiellement et significativement. Dans l’ensemble, ces résultats montrent que les politiques en matière de revenus de retraite constituent donc un déterminant important de la pauvreté des personnes âgées.

The effect of universal child benefits on labour supply

Using a difference-in-differences estimator, I find the Canadian Universal Child Care Benefit has significant negative income effects on the labour supply of married individuals. The likelihood of lower-educated mothers to participate in the labour force is reduced 3.2 percentage points when receiving the benefit. Median hours worked per week among lower-educated mothers is reduced by 1.9 hours. The effects on higher-educated mothers are substantial, with median hours worked among higher-educated mothers reduced by nearly one hour per week. For men, the evidence suggests small but significant income effects on labour supply, consistent with the literature on labour supply elasticities.

Wage Losses of Displaced Older Men: Does Selective Retirement Bias Results?

Dans cet article, j’apporte des arguments qui suggèrent que la retraite sélective ne biaise pas l’estimation des pertes de salaire subies par des travailleurs à la suite d’un déplacement. J’évalue ces pertes subies par des travailleurs âgés de plus de 50 ans, et je tient compte des travailleurs âgés qui choisissent de prendre leur retraite, ce qui évite que les pertes de salaires potentielles de certains travailleurs ne soient incluses dans les données. Mes résultats confirment que les travailleurs âgés ayant beaucoup d’ancienneté subissent d’importantes pertes de salaire après un déplacement.

Comparing Nest Eggs: How CPP Reform Affects Retirement Choices

Important changes are now underway to Canada Pension Plan “adjustment factors” that will increase the penalty for those who retire before age 65, and will raise the amount of additional CPP benefits available for those who delay retirement beyond 65. The new pension adjustment factors have moved in the right direction, but still fall short of offering many Canadians who retire at different ages the same value for their CPP benefits. In particular, those affected by the GIS clawbacks continue to face substantial financial disincentives to working longer. The simplest remedy would be to sever the link between work after age 60 and lower future GIS payments by exempting the actuarial-adjustment portion of the CPP earned by delaying retirement past 60 from GIS clawbacks.

The Effect of Labor Relations Laws on Unionization Rates within the Labor Force: Evidence from the Canadian Provinces

We examine the potential of labor‐relations reforms to address wage inequality by relating an index of the favorableness to unions of Canadian provincial labor‐relations laws to changes in industry, occupation, education, and gender‐specific provincial unionization rates. While we find some evidence of larger unionization gains among high‐school–educated workers, the differences across groups are small and in some cases suggest larger gains among professionals. Overall, the results suggest a limited potential for reforms in labor‐relations laws to mitigate growing labor‐market inequality.

The Pressing Question: Does CPP Expansion Help Low Earners?

Low earners stand to gain little from an expanded Canada Pension Plan (CPP), according to a new C.D. Howe Institute report. In “The Pressing Question: Does CPP Expansion Help Low Earners?”, authors Kevin Milligan and Tammy Schirle show the large differences in the net payoff from the expanded CPP for lower and higher earners.