Tan Zhong-fu

Building a Web-based Decision Support System for Sustainable Development of Energy, Economy and Environment

The sustainable development of energy, economy and environment (3E for short) is a hot topic in the present world, people pay more and more attention to the research on this topic. There are many achievements about 3E made by our researchers; however, because of geographical differences or the specification of study object, most of these studies can not play realistic roles either in promoting other’s study or in decision-making for policy maker. So we want to build a platform which contains all existed research results, and people can do scientific experiments and virtual simulations about the sustainable development of 3E on it. This platform is a web-based decision support system which consists of resource warehouse (3E data warehouse, policy warehouse, and software warehouse), model warehouse and applications related with 3E development. With this platform, researchers can share resources with others for free and verify their idea or model by experiment; decision-makers can predict the future development trend of 3E using the model warehouse and help to work out measures. This paper mainly introduces how to build a web-based DSS (Decision Support System) for the prediction and warning for sustainable development of 3E.

Research and Application of a Data-driven Platform for Sustainable Development of Energy, Economy and Environment

One of the targets of sustainable development is to find and keep a stable and harmonious state between each subsystem and others. In this paper, we introduce 3E (Energy, Economy and Environment) platform [1], which is a simulating platform to help researchers with studying sustainable development of energy, economy and environment. This platform collects historical data throughout the years, and its applications mainly contains sharing resources, comparing and analyzing, predicting and early-warning, etc. All of them are driven by 3E data warehouse. This paper discusses how to build a complete and scientific index system, which is the precondition and foundation of 3E data warehouse. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce PID (Proportional, Integral and Derivative) controller into 3E system, which is the most common control algorithm and widely used [2]. We think 3E system is an organic whole with proper self-adjusting capacity and people is the leading actor of this system, who is the CPU of the whole system to take charge of calculating, processing and feedback controlling. 3E platform supplies a virtual laboratory for researchers to do simulating experiments about 3E sustainable development.

Dynamic Game Analysis of Coal Electricity Market Involving Multi-Interests

The coal consumption of China reached 2.75 billion tons of standard coal in 2013, which accounted for 67.5% of total energy consumption and more than 50% of global coal consumption. Therefore, the impact of coal price is huge on coal market and even energy market in China. As a large consumer of coal, thermal power enterprise has a strong sensitivity to coal price. In order to balance the rising cost of enterprises due to coal price, we need to analyze the interests of multiple stakeholders. Firstly, this paper combined the Nash equilibrium and cobweb model and proposed the characteristics in different cobweb model. Then, for coal, power, and energy companies, the dynamic game analysis model is constructed. This model gives a game analysis in four scenarios and quantifies the decision of each stakeholder in different coal prices. Finally, the impact figure of different coal prices on each stakeholder has been drawn. The impacts of different coal or thermal power prices on different markets have been put forward, so relevant policy recommendations have been proposed combined with the cobweb model.

Efficiency Evaluation for Smart Grid Management Based on Stochastic Frontier Model and Data Envelope Analyses Model

For the technical and allocative efficiency evaluation of smart grid, this paper has proposed two methods. One is based on Data Envelopment Analysis and another is based on Stochastic Frontier Model. Among them, the former considered the dynamics of smart grid development and development dynamics is the influence parameter. The latter analyzed self-duality between the Cobb-Douglas production function and cost function; then, it deduced the smart grid resources optimization allocative efficiency evaluation model which can avoid price information needs of input factor in conventional allocative efficiency evaluation. The validity and rationality of the two methods are verified by a case study.

Notice of Retraction A study for the quantitative risk management of trust investment company

On the basis of business status of some trust and investment corporation in Beijing, this paper classifies risks of trust and investment corporations, and then establishes an indicator system, finally evaluates and monitors risks quantificationally

A New Customer Care Information System Architecture Model Integrated EA with SOA in Power Supply Enterprise

This article gives two architecture models which respectively based on EA (Enterprise-Architecture) and SOA (service oriented architecture) at first, and then makes a contrast of those two models, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of those two architectures. Finally a conclusion that those two architectures should integrate and propose a new Customer Care Information System architecture model based on the integration of EA and SOA in Power Supply Enterprise. This model can basically achieve the goal of establishing a sustainable development framework for Customer Care Information System in Power Supply Enterprise.

Effect of participants’ risk attitudes on one-way option electricity transaction based on utility theory

Electricity is a unique commodity and power price can fluctuate very severely in spot market making electricity supply industry a risky business for market participants. Mitigating risk becomes an urgent need for market participants. Benefit balance is a basic principal to carry out option. Each unit of power in the one-way option should produce the same benefit and utility to the market participants. Based on expectation and utility theory, the paper builds the benefit expectation model of the market participants to find an equilibrium option price. With the utility model by combining the benefit and risk observed in the one-way option the effects of different risk attitudes of the market participants on the one-way option are measured. Analysis results shows that the risk attitudes of market participants have an obvious effect on the option under study.

The optimal bidding models for power energy producer based on Static Bayesian Game theory

With the increasingly perfect power market in China, competitive generation bidding based on contracts for differences has become a inevitable direction. Independent generator, as one of market competition participants, will operate with a goal of maximizing benefits and care for optimal bidding strategy considering contracts for differences. Based on power grid company pursuing minimum purchasing electricity charges, the paper constructs relationship matrix between the generation amount, bidding and the rivalpsilas, then with static Bayesian game theory establishes the optimal bidding model considering contracts for differences. By solving the model, the Bayesian Nash equilibrium of the bidding and power generation amount in system may be confirmed. Example shows the model is feasible, and it is useful for power producerpsilas decision.