Tania M. Welzel

Metabolic syndrome increases the risk of primary liver cancer in the United States: A study in the SEER‐medicare database

Incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) have increased in the United States. Metabolic syndrome is recognized as a risk factor for HCC and a postulated one for ICC. The magnitude of risk, however, has not been investigated on a population level in the United States. We therefore examined the association between metabolic syndrome and the development of these cancers. All persons diagnosed with HCC and ICC between 1993 and 2005 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)‐Medicare database. For comparison, a 5% sample of individuals residing in the same regions as the SEER registries of the cases was selected. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome as defined by the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, and other risk factors for HCC (hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, alcoholic liver disease, liver cirrhosis, biliary cirrhosis, hemochromatosis, Wilsons disease) and ICC (biliary cirrhosis, cholangitis, cholelithiasis, choledochal cysts, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, alcoholic liver disease, cirrhosis, inflammatory bowel disease) were compared among persons who developed cancer and those who did not. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. The inclusion criteria were met by 3649 HCC cases, 743 ICC cases, and 195,953 comparison persons. Metabolic syndrome was significantly more common among persons who developed HCC (37.1%) and ICC (29.7%) than the comparison group (17.1%, P < 0.0001). In adjusted multiple logistic regression analyses, metabolic syndrome remained significantly associated with increased risk of HCC (odds ratio = 2.13; 95% confidence interval = 1.96‐2.31, P < 0.0001) and ICC (odds ratio = 1.56; 95% confidence interval = 1.32‐1.83, P < 0.0001). Conclusion: Metabolic syndrome is a significant risk factor for development of HCC and ICC in the general U.S. population. (HEPATOLOGY 2011;)

Ledipasvir and sofosbuvir in patients with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus infection and compensated cirrhosis: An integrated safety and efficacy analysis

Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and cirrhosis are underrepresented in clinical trials of interferon‐free regimens of direct‐acting antiviral agents, making it difficult to optimize therapy. We performed a post‐hoc analysis of data from seven clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the fixed‐dose combination of ledipasvir (LDV) and sofosbuvir (SOF), with and without ribavirin (RBV), in 513 treatment‐naïve and previously treated patients with genotype 1 HCV and compensated cirrhosis. All patients received LDV‐SOF for 12 or 24 weeks with or without RBV. We determined the rates of sustained virological response (SVR) 12 weeks after treatment (SVR12) overall and for subgroups. Of the 513 patients analyzed, 69% were previously treated and 47% had failed previous treatment with a protease‐inhibitor regimen. Overall, 493 patients (96%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 94%‐98%) achieved SVR12, 98% of treatment‐naïve and 95% of previously treated patients. SVR12 rates did not vary greatly by treatment duration (95% of patients receiving 12 weeks and 98% of patients receiving 24 weeks of treatment), nor by addition of RBV (95% of patients receiving LDV‐SOF alone and 97% of those who received LDV‐SOF plus RBV), although previously treated patients receiving 12 weeks of LDV‐SOF without RBV had an SVR12 rate of 90%. One patient discontinued LDV‐SOF because of an adverse event (AE). The most common AEs were headache (23%), fatigue (16%‐19%), and asthenia (14%‐16%). One patient (<1%) of those receiving LDV‐SOF alone, and 4 (2%) of those receiving LDV‐SOF plus RBV had treatment‐related serious AEs. Conclusions: This analysis suggests that 12 weeks of LDV‐SOF is safe and effective for treatment‐naïve patients with HCV genotype 1 and compensated cirrhosis. The relatively lower SVR in treatment‐experienced patients treated with 12 weeks of LDV‐SOF raises the question of whether these patients would benefit from adding RBV or extending treatment duration to 24 weeks. (Hepatology 2015;62:79‐86)

Clinical Course of acute-on-chronic liver failure syndrome and effects on prognosis.

Acute‐on‐chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis, organ failure(s), and high 28‐day mortality. We investigated whether assessments of patients at specific time points predicted their need for liver transplantation (LT) or the potential futility of their care. We assessed clinical courses of 388 patients who had ACLF at enrollment, from February through September 2011, or during early (28‐day) follow‐up of the prospective multicenter European Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) ACLF in Cirrhosis study. We assessed ACLF grades at different time points to define disease resolution, improvement, worsening, or steady or fluctuating course. ACLF resolved or improved in 49.2%, had a steady or fluctuating course in 30.4%, and worsened in 20.4%. The 28‐day transplant‐free mortality was low‐to‐moderate (6%‐18%) in patients with nonsevere early course (final no ACLF or ACLF‐1) and high‐to‐very high (42%‐92%) in those with severe early course (final ACLF‐2 or ‐3) independently of initial grades. Independent predictors of course severity were CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF‐C ACLFs) and presence of liver failure (total bilirubin ≥12 mg/dL) at ACLF diagnosis. Eighty‐one percent had their final ACLF grade at 1 week, resulting in accurate prediction of short‐ (28‐day) and mid‐term (90‐day) mortality by ACLF grade at 3‐7 days. Among patients that underwent early LT, 75% survived for at least 1 year. Among patients with ≥4 organ failures, or CLIF‐C ACLFs >64 at days 3‐7 days, and did not undergo LT, mortality was 100% by 28 days. Conclusions: Assessment of ACLF patients at 3‐7 days of the syndrome provides a tool to define the emergency of LT and a rational basis for intensive care discontinuation owing to futility. (Hepatology 2015;62:243‐252)

Population-Attributable Fractions of Risk Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States

OBJECTIVES:Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) include hepatitis B and C viruses (HBV, HCV), excessive alcohol consumption, rare genetic disorders and diabetes/obesity. The population attributable fractions (PAF) of these factors, however, have not been investigated in population-based studies in the United States.METHODS:Persons ≥68 years diagnosed with HCC (n=6,991) between 1994 and 2007 were identified in the SEER-Medicare database. A 5% random sample (n=255,702) of persons residing in SEER locations were selected for comparison. For each risk factor, odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and PAFs were calculated.RESULTS:As anticipated, the risk of HCC was increased in relationship to each factor: HCV (OR 39.89, 95% CI: 36.29–43.84), HBV (OR 11.17, 95% CI: 9.18–13.59), alcohol-related disorders (OR 4.06, 95% CI: 3.82–4.32), rare metabolic disorders (OR 3.45, 95% CI: 2.97–4.02), and diabetes and/or obesity (OR 2.47, 95% CI: 2.34–2.61). The PAF of all factors combined was 64.5% (males 65.6%; females 62.2%). The PAF was highest among Asians (70.1%) and lowest among black persons (52.4%). Among individual factors, diabetes/obesity had the greatest PAF (36.6%), followed by alcohol-related disorders (23.5%), HCV (22.4%), HBV (6.3%) and rare genetic disorders (3.2%). While diabetes/obesity had the greatest PAF among both males (36.4%) and females (36.7%), alcohol-related disorders had the second greatest PAF among males (27.8%) and HCV the second greatest among females (28.1%). Diabetes/obesity had the greatest PAF among whites (38.9%) and Hispanics (38.1%), while HCV had the greatest PAF among Asians (35.4%) and blacks (34.9%). The second greatest PAF was alcohol-related disorders in whites (25.6%), Hispanics (30.1%) and blacks (and 18.5%) and HBV in Asians (28.5%).CONCLUSIONS:The dominant risk factors for HCC in the United States among persons ≥68 years differ by sex and race/ethnicity. Overall, eliminating diabetes/obesity could reduce the incidence of HCC more than the elimination of any other factor.

Risk factors for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in a low‐risk population: A nationwide case‐control study

Recently, the incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has been increasing in a number of developed (Western) countries. However, risk factors in these low‐risk populations are poorly understood. In this nationwide population based case‐control study in Denmark, we examined the relationship between selected medical conditions and subsequent ICC risk to provide additional clues to etiopathogenesis. All histologically confirmed ICC cases diagnosed in Denmark between 1978 and 1991 were identified from the Danish cancer registry. Population controls were selected from the central population registry and were matched 4:1 to cases on sex and year of birth. Cases and controls were linked to the Danish hospital discharge registry to obtain information on prior hospital diagnoses. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were derived using conditional logistic regression. A total of 764 ICC cases and 3,056 population controls were included in the study. Chronic liver diseases were significantly related to ICC: alcoholic liver disease (OR = 19.22, 95% CI = 5.55–66.54), unspecified cirrhosis (OR = 75.9, 95% CI 10.2–565.7). Bile duct diseases were also associated with risk: cholangitis (OR = 6.3, 95% CI = 2.3–17.5), choledocholithiasis (OR = 23.97, 95% CI = 2.9–198.9), cholecystolithiasis (OR = 4.0, 95% CI = 2.0–7.99), though gallbladder removal did not change risk (OR = 1.6, 95% CI = 0.65–3.7). Among other conditions, chronic inflammatory bowel disease (OR = 4.7, 95% CI = 1.65–13.9) was significantly associated with ICC. Diabetes was associated with risk in the year prior to diagnosis of ICC (OR = 3.02, 95% CI = 1.05–8.69). Obesity was unrelated to risk. These results confirm that prior bile duct diseases increase risk of ICC and suggest that alcoholic liver disease and diabetes may also increase risk.

Long-term safety and efficacy of microRNA-targeted therapy in chronic hepatitis C patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS MicroRNA-122 (miR-122) is an important host factor for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and promotes HCV RNA accumulation. Decreased intra-hepatic levels of miR-122 were observed in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, suggesting a potential role of miR-122 in the development of HCC. Miravirsen targets miR-122 and resulted in a dose dependent and prolonged decrease of HCV RNA levels in chronic hepatitis C patients. The aim of this study was to establish the sustained virological response rate to peginterferon (P) and ribavirin (R) following miravirsen dosing and to assess long-term safety in patients treated with miravirsen. METHODS In this multicenter, retrospective follow-up study we included 36 treatment naïve patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 1 who received five weekly subcutaneous injections with miravirsen or placebo over a 29-day period in a phase 2a study. Patients were offered PR therapy 3weeks (3mg/kg group) or 6weeks (5 or 7mg/kg group) after completion of miravirsen or placebo dosing. RESULTS PR therapy was started in 14/36 patients of whom 12 had received miravirsen. SVR was achieved in 7/12 patients previously dosed with miravirsen. All patients dosed with 7mg/kg miravirsen who were subsequently treated with PR achieved SVR. One patient had a prolonged undetectable HCV RNA period from week 14 to week 29 after baseline without subsequent antiviral therapy and relapsed thereafter. None of the patients treated with anti-miR-122 developed HCC or other liver-related complications. CONCLUSION No long-term safety issues were observed among 27 miravirsen-treated patients. Targeting miR-122 may be an effective and safe treatment strategy for HCV infection and should be investigated in larger clinical trials.

Entecavir treatment does not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B: limited role for risk scores in Caucasians

Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk-scores may predict HCC in Asian entecavir (ETV)-treated patients. We aimed to study risk factors and performance of risk scores during ETV treatment in an ethnically diverse Western population. Methods We studied all HBV monoinfected patients treated with ETV from 11 European referral centres within the VIRGIL Network. Results A total of 744 patients were included; 42% Caucasian, 29% Asian, 19% other, 10% unknown. At baseline, 164 patients (22%) had cirrhosis. During a median follow-up of 167 (IQR 82–212) weeks, 14 patients developed HCC of whom nine (64%) had cirrhosis at baseline. The 5-year cumulative incidence rate of HCC was 2.1% for non-cirrhotic and 10.9% for cirrhotic patients (p<0.001). HCC incidence was higher in older patients (p<0.001) and patients with lower baseline platelet counts (p=0.02). Twelve patients who developed HCC achieved virologic response (HBV DNA <80 IU/mL) before HCC. At baseline, higher CU-HCC and GAG-HCC, but not REACH-B scores were associated with development of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was low, with sensitivity ranging from 18% to 73%, and c-statistics from 0.71 to 0.85. Performance was further reduced in Caucasians with c-statistics from 0.54 to 0.74. Predicted risk of HCC based on risk-scores declined during ETV therapy (all p<0.001), but predictive performances after 1 year were comparable to those at baseline. Conclusions Cumulative incidence of HCC is low in patients treated with ETV, but ETV does not eliminate the risk of HCC. Discriminatory performance of HCC risk scores was limited, particularly in Caucasians, at baseline and during therapy.

Systemic inflammation in decompensated cirrhosis: Characterization and role in acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute‐on‐chronic liver failure (ACLF) in cirrhosis is characterized by acute decompensation (AD), organ failure(s), and high short‐term mortality. Recently, we have proposed (systemic inflammation [SI] hypothesis) that ACLF is the expression of an acute exacerbation of the SI already present in decompensated cirrhosis. This study was aimed at testing this hypothesis and included 522 patients with decompensated cirrhosis (237 with ACLF) and 40 healthy subjects. SI was assessed by measuring 29 cytokines and the redox state of circulating albumin (HNA2), a marker of systemic oxidative stress. Systemic circulatory dysfunction (SCD) was estimated by plasma renin (PRC) and copeptin (PCC) concentrations. Measurements were performed at enrollment (baseline) in all patients and sequentially during hospitalization in 255. The main findings of this study were: (1) Patients with AD without ACLF showed very high baseline levels of inflammatory cytokines, HNA2, PRC, and PCC. Patients with ACLF showed significantly higher levels of these markers than those without ACLF; (2) different cytokine profiles were identified according to the type of ACLF precipitating event (active alcoholism/acute alcoholic hepatitis, bacterial infection, and others); (3) severity of SI and frequency and severity of ACLF at enrollment were strongly associated. The course of SI and the course of ACLF (improvement, no change, or worsening) during hospitalization and short‐term mortality were also strongly associated; and (4) the strength of association of ACLF with SI was higher than with SCD. Conclusion: These data support SI as the primary driver of ACLF in cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2016;64:1249‐1264).

Variants in interferon-alpha pathway genes and response to pegylated interferon-Alpha2a plus ribavirin for treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection in the hepatitis C antiviral long-term treatment against cirrhosis trial†‡

Combination treatment with pegylated‐interferon‐alpha (PEG IFN‐α) and ribavirin, the current recommended therapy for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, results in a sustained virological response (SVR) in only about half of patients. Because genes involved in the interferon‐alpha pathway may affect antiviral responses, we analyzed the relationship between variants in these genes and SVR among participants in the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long‐Term treatment Against Cirrhosis (HALT‐C) trial. Patients had advanced chronic hepatitis C that had previously failed to respond to interferon‐based treatment. Participants were treated with peginterferon‐α2a and ribavirin during the trial. Subjects with undetectable HCV RNA at week 72 were considered to have had an SVR. Subjects with detectable HCV RNA at week 20 were considered nonresponders. We used TaqMan assays to genotype 56 polymorphisms found in 13 genes in the interferon‐alpha pathway. This analysis compares genotypes for participants with an SVR to nonresponders. The primary analysis was restricted to European American participants because a priori statistical power was low among the small number (n = 131) of African American patients. We used logistic regression to control the effect of other variables that are associated with treatment response. Among 581 European American patients, SVR was associated with IFNAR1 IVS1‐22G (adjusted odds ratio, 0.57; P = 0.02); IFNAR2 Ex2‐33C (adjusted odds ratio, 2.09; P = 0.02); JAK1 IVS22+112T (adjusted odds ratio, 1.66; P = 0.04); and ADAR Ex9+14A (adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; P = 0.03). For the TYK2‐2256A promoter region variant, a borderline association was present among European American participants (OR, 1.51; P = 0.05) and a strong relationship among African American patients; all 10 with SVR who were genotyped for TYK2 ‐2256 carried the A variant compared with 68 of 120 (57%) nonresponders (P = 0.006). Conclusion: Genetic polymorphisms in the interferon‐α pathway may affect responses to antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C. (HEPATOLOGY 2009.)

Real-Time PCR Assay for Detection and Quantification of Hepatitis B Virus Genotypes A to G

ABSTRACT The detection and quantification of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA play an important role in diagnosing and monitoring HBV infection as well as assessing therapeutic response. The great variability among HBV genotypes and the enormous range of clinical HBV DNA levels present challenges for PCR-based amplification techniques. In this study, we describe the development, evaluation, and validation of a novel real-time PCR assay designed to provide accurate quantification of DNA from all eight HBV genotypes in patient plasma specimens. A computer algorithm was used to design degenerate real-time PCR primers and probes based upon a large number (n = 340) of full-length genomic sequences including HBV genotypes A to H from Europe, Africa, Asia, and North and South America. Genotype performance was tested and confirmed using 59 genotype A to G specimens from two commercially available worldwide genotype panels. This assay has a dynamic range of at least 8 log10 without the need for specimen dilution, good clinical intra- and interassay precision, and excellent correlation with the Bayer Diagnostics VERSANT HBV DNA 3.0 (branched DNA) assay (r = 0.93). Probit analysis determined the 95% detection level was 56 IU/ml, corresponding to 11 copies per PCR well. The high sensitivity, wide linear range, good reproducibility, and genotype inclusivity, combined with a small sample volume requirement and low cost, make this novel quantitative HBV real-time PCR assay particularly well suited for application to large clinical and epidemiological studies.