Tara Jensen

An Overview of the 2010 Hazardous Weather Testbed Experimental Forecast Program Spring Experiment

The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) conducts annual spring forecasting experiments organized by the Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storms Laboratory to test and evaluate emerging scientific concepts and technologies for improved analysis and prediction of hazardous mesoscale weather. A primary goal is to accelerate the transfer of promising new scientific concepts and tools from research to operations through the use of intensive real-time experimental forecasting and evaluation activities conducted during the spring and early summer convective storm period. The 2010 NOAA/HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment (SE2010), conducted 17 May through 18 June, had a broad focus, with emphases on heavy rainfall and aviation weather, through collaboration with the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) and the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), respectively. In addition, using the computing resources of the National Institute for Computational Sciences at the University of Tennessee, the Center for A...

Assessing Advances in the Assimilation of Radar Data and Other Mesoscale Observations within a Collaborative Forecasting-Research Environment

The impacts of assimilating radar data and other mesoscale observations in real-time, convection-allowing model forecasts were evaluated during the spring seasons of 2008 and 2009 as part of the Hazardous Weather Test Bed Spring Experiment activities. In tests of a prototype continental U.S.-scale forecast system, focusing primarily on regions with active deep convection at the initial time, assimilation of these observations had a positive impact. Daily interrogation of output by teams of modelers, forecasters, and verification experts provided additional insights into the value-added characteristics of the unique assimilation forecasts. This evaluation revealed that the positive effects of the assimilation were greatest during the first 3‐6 h of each forecast, appeared to be most pronounced with larger convective systems, and may have been related to a phase lag that sometimes developed when the convective-scale information was not assimilated. These preliminary results are currently being evaluated further using advanced objective verification techniques.

Aerosol distributions in the North Atlantic marine boundary layer during Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment/Marine Aerosol and Gas Exchange

Marine boundary layer aerosol size distributions observed during June 1992 are described. Measurements were made from onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ship Malcolm Baldrige in support of the Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment/Marine Aerosol and Gas Exchange field experiment in the area surrounding 32°N latitude and 25°W longitude. Measurements obtained from three instruments, the differential mobility particle sizer, the active scattering aerosol spectrometer probe, and the forward scattering spectrometer probe, were used to investigate the contributions of the different aerosol modes to total number, surface area, and volume concentrations. It was observed that aerosol populations in air masses that appear to have originated from remote marine areas have a bimodal number distribution with total number concentrations ranging from 200 to 800 particles cm−3. In air masses that have been affected by anthropogenic emissions, the aerosol size distributions become monomodal and total number concentrations increase to 500 to 1800 cm−3. The data also suggest that air mass boundaries can be very sharp and that there may be some mesoscale variability in the aerosol population within an air mass.

Application of Object-Based Time-Domain Diagnostics for Tracking Precipitation Systems in Convection-Allowing Models

AbstractMeaningful verification and evaluation of convection-allowing models requires approaches that do not rely on point-to-point matches of forecast and observed fields. In this study, one such approach—a beta version of the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) that incorporates the time dimension [known as MODE time-domain (MODE-TD)]—was applied to 30-h precipitation forecasts from four 4-km grid-spacing members of the 2010 Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast system with different microphysics parameterizations. Including time in MODE-TD provides information on rainfall system evolution like lifetime, timing of initiation and dissipation, and translation.The simulations depicted the spatial distribution of time-domain precipitation objects across the United States quite well. However, all simulations overpredicted the number of objects, with the Thompson microphysics scheme overpredicting the most and the Morrison method the least. For the smallest smoothing radius and rainfall threshold use...

Individual aerosol particles in ambient and updraft conditions below convective cloud bases in the Oman mountain region

An airborne study of cloud microphysics provided an opportunity to collect aerosol particles in ambient and updraft conditions of natural convection systems for transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Particles were collected simultaneously on lacey carbon and calcium-coated carbon (Ca-C) TEM grids, providing information on particle morphology and chemistry and a unique record of the particles physical state on impact. In total, 22 particle categories were identified, including single, coated, aggregate, and droplet types. The fine fraction comprised up to 90% mixed cation sulfate (MCS) droplets, while the coarse fraction comprised up to 80% mineral-containing aggregates. Insoluble (dry), partially soluble (wet), and fully soluble particles (droplets) were recorded on Ca-C grids. Dry particles were typically silicate grains; wet particles were mineral aggregates with chloride, nitrate, or sulfate components; and droplets were mainly aqueous NaCl and MCS. Higher numbers of droplets were present in updrafts (80% relative humidity (RH)) compared with ambient conditions (60% RH), and almost all particles activated at cloud base (100% RH). Greatest changes in size and shape were observed in NaCl-containing aggregates (>0.3 µm diameter) along updraft trajectories. Their abundance was associated with high numbers of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplets, as well as large droplet sizes in updrafts. Thus, compositional dependence was observed in activation behavior recorded for coarse and fine fractions. Soluble salts from local pollution and natural sources clearly affected aerosol-cloud interactions, enhancing the spectrum of particles forming CCN and by forming giant CCN from aggregates, thus, making cloud seeding with hygroscopic flares ineffective in this region.

Diagnosing Road Weather Conditions with Vehicle Probe Data: Results from Detroit IntelliDrive Field Study

Over the past 2 years, the U.S. Department of Transportation RITA funded an IntelliDrive vehicle probe data collection test bed in the northwest Detroit, Michigan, area. The purpose of the test bed was to provide the infrastructure for both public and private organizations to collect, process, and generate a robust observation data set for multiple purposes (e.g., crash avoidance, automated toll services, weather diagnostics). During April 2009, a weather-specific field study was performed over an 11-day period. The resulting data set was processed by a vehicle data translator (VDT), which parsed, quality controlled, and combined these data (with ancillary weather data) in the generation of road weather-specific algorithms. This paper briefly describes the VDT concept and then examines the accuracy of the quality-controlled temperature and pressure data (for several different stratifications) collected from 11 specially equipped vehicles operated during the study time period. Results show that the vehicles accurately measure the temperature (compared with a nearby fixed weather station, KDTW), but are not as accurate at measuring the barometric pressure. In addition, stratification by speed, vehicle type, time of day, and occurrence of precipitation do not affect the accuracy of the temperature and barometric pressure measurements.

Building the Sun4Cast System: Improvements in Solar Power Forecasting

AbstractAs integration of solar power into the national electric grid rapidly increases, it becomes imperative to improve forecasting of this highly variable renewable resource. Thus, a team of researchers from the public, private, and academic sectors partnered to develop and assess a new solar power forecasting system, Sun4Cast. The partnership focused on improving decision-making for utilities and independent system operators, ultimately resulting in improved grid stability and cost savings for consumers. The project followed a value chain approach to determine key research and technology needs to reach desired results.Sun4Cast integrates various forecasting technologies across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales to predict surface solar irradiance. Anchoring the system is WRF-Solar, a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model optimized for solar irradiance prediction. Forecasts from multiple NWP models are blended via the Dynamic Integrated Fo...

Processing of aerosol particles within the Habshan pollution plume

The Habshan industrial site in the United Arab Emirates produces a regional-scale pollution plume associated with oil and gas processing, discharging high loadings of sulfates and chlorides into the atmosphere, which interact with the ambient aerosol population. Aerosol particles and trace gas chemistry at this site were studied on two flights in the summer of 2002. Measurements were collected along vertical plume profiles to show changes associated with atmospheric processing of particle and gas components. Close to the outlet stack, particle concentrations were over 10,000 cm−3, dropping to <2000 cm−3 in more dilute plume around 1500 m above the stack. Particles collected close to the stack and within the dilute plume were individually measured for size, morphology, composition, and mixing state using transmission electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Close to the stack, most coarse particles consisted of mineral dust and NaCl crystals from burning oil brines, while sulfate droplets dominated the fine mode. In more dilute plume, at least 1500 m above the stack, the particle spectrum was more diverse, with a significant increase in internally mixed particle types. Dilute plume samples consisted of coarse NaCl/silicate aggregates or NaCl-rich droplets, often with a sulfate component, while fine-fraction particles were of mixed cation sulfates, also internally mixed with nanospherical soot or silicates. Thus, both chloride and sulfate components of the pollution plume rapidly reacted with ambient mineral dust to form coated and aggregate particles, enhancing particle size, hygroscopicity, and reactivity of the coarse mode. The fine-fraction sulfate-bearing particles formed in the plume contribute to regional transport of sulfates, while coarse sulfate-bearing fractions locally reduced the SO2 loading through sedimentation. The chloride- and sulfate-bearing internally mixed particles formed in the plume markedly changed the reflectivity and scattering properties of the ambient aerosol population, as well as its hygroscopic and ice nucleation properties.

Influences of the monsoon trough and Arabian heat low on summer rainfall over the United Arab Emirates

AbstractThe factors responsible for rare summertime rainfall over portions of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have not been previously explored in detail, are elucidated with the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and WRF mesoscale model simulations. The simulations show associations between active phases of the southwest Asian monsoon and intensification of the Arabian heat low, leading up to UAE rainfall events. Variability in the location and strength of the Arabian heat low circulation, which differs from the static portrayal in climatological minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), can affect the development of deep convection over the UAE. Analysis of the vorticity equation for a two-day case study period confirms that convergence is solely responsible for the spinup and maintenance of the primary heat low circulation. Convergence is also responsible for the spinup of a separate cyclonic circulation over the eastern UAE, which propagates offshore to the Arabian Gulf during morning hours. This cyclo...

Comparing and integrating solar forecasting techniques

The SunCast Solar Power Forecasting System is comprised of various models to predict the short term solar resource from 15 min through 168 hours. It leverages surface and satellite observations in building both physically-based as well as artificial intelligence nowcasting models. It also employs numerical weather prediction models, including an enhanced version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF-Solar. This paper compares the various techniques and describes how they are integrated to provide a seamless probabilistic power forecast.