Tarik Yousef

Intra-Arab Trade: Is It Too Little?

This paper estimates a gravity model to address the issue of whether intra-Arab trade is too little. Although gravity models have been extensively used to measure bilateral trade among countries, they have - to the best of our knowledge - never been used to measure intra-Arab trade. Our results suggest that intra-Arab trade and Arab trade with the rest of the world are lower than what would be predicted by the gravity equation, suggesting considerable scope for regional - as well as multilateral - integration. The results also suggest that intra-GCC and intra-Maghreb trade are relatively low while the Mashreq countries exhibit a higher level of intragroup trade.

Demographic Transition in the Middle East: Implications for Growth, Employment, and Housing

The working age population is expected to grow faster in the Middle East than in any other region in the world between now and 2015 - rising annually by 2.7 percent, or 10 million people. This demographic explosion presents the region with a major challenge in terms of providing jobs, incomes, and housing for the growing population, but the expanding labor force can also be seen as an opportunity to generate higher per capita income growth on a sustainable basis. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of market-friendly institutions in turning the challenge into opportunity.

Egypt's Growth Performance under Economic Liberalism: A Reassessment with New GDP Estimates, 1886-1945

The stagnation of Egyptian living standards in the first half of the 20th century has been widely presumed in economic history. However, this conventional wisdom is partially based on a fragmented body of evidence on aggregate output. In particular, no estimates of national income exist for any extended period prior to World War II. Using a money-based cointegration approach and a new measure of broad money, we exploit Egypts intimate economic links with the U.K. to provide the first continuous estimates of GDP for the period 1886-1945. Our estimates are consistent with trends in agriculture and other stylized facts about the Egyptian economy in the late 19th and early 20th century. The empirical results provide qualified support to the conventional wisdom about Egypts growth performance in addition to offering a detailed characterization of output cycles. Copyright 2002 by The International Association for Research in Income and Wealth.

Skill Acquisition and Firm Creation in Transition Economies

The transition from plan to market has hinged on the development of a dynamic private sector that would serve as the engine of growth and employment creation. This paper examines the link between the availability of skilled workers and the creation of new private firms. Using a dynamic search model, it shows how the lack of skilled workers inhibits entrepreneurship and depresses the rate of firm creation, slowing the recovery of aggregate output and labor productivity during the transition. The paper also shows how policies designed to encourage skill acquisition by workers have a positive impact on the economy.

Breaking the Fetters: Why Did Countries Exit the Interwar Gold Standard?

The slow demise of the interwar gold standard figures prominently in explanations of the spread and depth of the Great Depression. The reluctance of some countries to shed their golden fetters is puzzling in the face of the visible gains enjoyed by early quitters. We explore four hypotheses explaining these divergent choices by countries, focusing on different economic shocks, differences in the perceived credibility costs of exiting, different domestic political considerations and mentality and network effects. In a panel dataset comprising both core and periphery countries, we find support for all four explanations.

Will the Current Oil Boom Solve the Employment Crisis in the Middle East

Several reports published at the turn of the new century emphasized the looming employment crisis facing the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA). These studies described an unprecedented job creation challenge facing the region which requires average annual economic growth rates of 6 to 8 percent between 2000 and 2020, far higher than the average 3.6 percent growth witnessed over the 1990s. Much has changed recently, however, in the regions economic outlook. Oil prices - which had been forecast in 2002 to stay at or below

Assessing Competitiveness in the Arab World: Strategies for Sustaining the Growth Momentum

25 a barrel for the foreseeable future - rose to

The Changing Role of Labor Migration in Arab Economic Integration

29 a barrel in 2003,

The Logic of Authoritarian Bargains: A Test of a Structural Model

53 a barrel in 2005 and even higher in the last two years. This unexpected and dramatic rise in oil prices has been reflected in rising personal incomes and government revenues. Thus, regional GDP growth improved from 2.9 percent in 2002 to an estimated 6.0 percent in 2005 and 2006 and is projected to remain high for the foreseeable future. In turn, the region has seen higher rates of job creation and declining rates of unemployment for the first time in almost two decades. Given these changes, the relevant question becomes whether MENAs labor market pressures have suddenly become manageable. More precisely, has the current oil boom solved the unemployment crisis facing the region? This paper reviews recent developments in MENAs labor markets, focusing on job creation, unemployment and government policies aimed at improving labor market outcomes.

Labor market adjustment in transition economies with on-the-job search

The high energy prices of the past few years have brought the Arab world the highest growth rates in nearly three decades. So long as energy prices remain at their present high levels, it is safe to suggest that the Arab economies especially those endowed with substantial oil and gas reserves could sustain the ongoing prosperity for a while. But there lies the danger as well. What if oil prices take an unexpected downward dive, as they have done in the past three decades? More worrisome, what if the current prosperity postpones the adoption of structural reforms needed to sustain the growth momentum? Such concerns about the long-term prospects of the region and the likely trajectory of reform are shared by international observers, policymakers and the general public in the Arab world. Yet, only a few regular assessments of economic developments in the Arab world are produced. This chapter makes a contribution towards closing this gap by assessing the competitiveness of Arab economies at present. Utilizing the results of the most recent World Economic Forums Executive Opinion Survey, the paper benchmarks the competitive performance of Arab countries against selected comparators.