Taroh Matsuno

Geographical distribution of the feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle

[i] We examined climate-carbon cycle feedback by performing a global warming experiment using MIROC-based coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The model showed that by the end of the 21st century, warming leads to a further increase in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) level of 123 ppm by volume (ppmv). This positive feedback can mostly be attributed to land-based soil-carbon dynamics. On a regional scale, Siberia experienced intense positive feedback, because the acceleration of microbial respiration due to warming causes a decrease in the soil carbon level. Amazonia also had positive feedback resulting from accelerated microbial respiration. On the other hand, some regions, such as western and central North America and South Australia, experienced negative feedback, because enhanced litterfall surpassed the increased respiration in soil carbon. The oceanic contribution to the feedback was much weaker than the land contribution on global scale, but the positive feedback in the northern North Atlantic was as strong as those in Amazonia and Siberia in our model. In the northern North Atlantic, the weakening of winter mixing caused a reduction of CO 2 absorption at the surface. Moreover, weakening of the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water caused reduced CO 2 subduction to the deep water. Understanding such regional-scale differences may help to explain disparities in coupled climate-carbon cycle model results.

How and why climate variability differs between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific

The tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans share many common climatological features such as easterly trade winds, eastward shoaling thermocline, an eastern cold tongue and a northerly intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). However, a comparison of climate variability between the two oceans reveals more differences than similarities. The Pacific is dominated by the equatorially symmetric El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while the Atlantic ITCZ is controlled by changes in interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. To understand the causes of these differences in variability, a dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupling model is developed that includes both the Bjerknes and wind-evaporation-SST feedbacks. Equatorially symmetric and anti-symmetric modes emerge from the model, displaying distinct growth rate dependence on zonal wavenumber. Consistent with observations, an equatorially trapped ENSO mode dominates an ocean with a longitudinal size of the Pacific while in a smaller Atlantic-size one, a monopole mode with a broad meridional scale coexists with an equatorially anti-symmetric dipole mode.

Examination of a climate stabilization pathway via zero-emissions using Earth system models

Long-term climate experiments up to the year 2300 have been conducted using two full-scale complex Earth system models (ESMs), CESM1(BGC) and MIROC-ESM, for a CO2 emissions reduction pathway, termed Z650, where annual CO2 emissions peak at 11 PgC in 2020, decline by 50% every 30 years, and reach zero in 2160. The results have been examined by focusing on the approximate linear relationship between the temperature increase and cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the temperature increase is nearly proportional to the cumulative CO2 emissions in both models, this relationship does not necessarily provide a robust basis for the restriction of CO2 emissions because it is substantially modulated by non-CO2 forcing. CO2-induced warming, estimated from the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the models, indicates an approximate compensation of nonlinear changes between fast-mode responses to concentration changes at less than 10 years and slow-mode response at more than 100 years due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. In this estimate, CESM1(BGC) closely approximates a linear trend of 1.7 °C per 1000 PgC, whereas MIROC-ESM shows a deviation toward higher temperatures after the emissions peak, from 1.8 °C to 2.4 °C per 1000 PgC over the range of 400–850 PgC cumulative emissions corresponding to years 2000–2050. The evolution of temperature under zero emissions, 2160–2300, shows a slight decrease of about 0.1 °C per century in CESM1(BGC), but remains almost constant in MIROC-ESM. The fast-mode response toward the equilibrium state decreases with a decrease in the airborne fraction owing to continued CO2 uptake (carbon cycle inertia), whereas the slow-mode response results in more warming owing to continued heat uptake (thermal inertia). Several specific differences are noted between the two models regarding the degree of this compensation and in some key regional aspects associated with sustained warming and long-term climate risks. Overall, elevated temperatures continue for at least a few hundred years under zero emissions.

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 1: Examination of the traditional stabilization concept

The concept of “stabilization” of atmospheric CO2 concentration is re-examined in connection with climate-change mitigation strategies. A new “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” is proposed, where CO2 emissions are reduced to zero at some time and thereafter the concentration is decreased by natural removal processes, eventually reaching an equilibrated stable state. Simplified climate experiments show that, under Z-stabilization, considerably larger emissions are permissible in the near future compared with traditional stabilization, with the same constraint on temperature rise. Over longer time scales, the concentration and temperature decrease close to their equilibrium values, much lower than those under traditional stabilization. The smaller temperature rise at final state is essential to avoid longer-term risk of sea level rise, a significant concern under traditional stabilization. Because of these advantages a Z-stabilization pathway can be a candidate of practical mitigation strategies as treated in Part 2.

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: A practical zero-emissions scenario

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 ℃ above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO2 emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.