Tatiana Egorova

Modeling of the atmospheric response to a strong decrease of the solar activity

We estimate the consequences of a potential strong decrease of the solar activity using the model simulations of the future driven by pure anthropogenic forcing as well as its combination with different solar activity related factors: total solar irradiance, spectral solar irradiance, energetic electron precipitation, solar protons and galactic cosmic rays. The comparison of the model simulations shows that introduced strong decrease of solar activity can lead to some delay of the ozone recovery and partially compensate greenhouse warming acting in the direction opposite to anthropogenic effects. The model results also show that all considered solar forcings are important in different atmospheric layers and geographical regions. However, in the global scale the solar irradiance variability can be considered as the most important solar forcing. The obtained results constitute probably the upper limit of the possible solar influence. Development of the better constrained set of future solar forcings is necessary to address the problem of future climate and ozone layer with more confidence.

Solar irradiance observations with PREMOS filter radiometers on the PICARD mission: In-flight performance and data release

The PREcision Monitoring Sensor (PREMOS) is a solar radiometer on board the French PICARD mission that was launched in June 2010 and decommissioned in April 2014. Aims. The PREMOS radiometer obtains solar irradiance measurements in specific spectral windows in the UV, visible, and near- infrared. In this paper, the PREMOS data and calibration methods are presented. Methods. Using back-up channels, the degradation can theoretically be assessed to correct operational channels. However, a strong degradation within all PREMOS channels requires the application of additional methods, namely using back-up channels and assess- ing the degradation via a proxy-based model. Results. The corrected Level 3 PREMOS data are then used in different contexts in order to be validated. First, the signature of the p-mode are retrieved from the PREMOS data. The Venus transit allows us to empirically determine the intrinsic noise level within the PREMOS high cadence data for the visible and near-infrared channels. We then compare the PREMOS data directly to other data sets, namely from the SOLar-STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and the Solar Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instru- ments on board the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) spacecraft. Regarding the UV channels, we found an excellent correlation over the lifetime of the PREMOS mission. The ratio between SORCE and PREMOS observations is always less than 1%. Regarding the SSI measurements in the visible and near-infrared, a comparison of short-term variations (i.e. 27-day modulation) shows a rather good correlation by taking into consideration the intrinsic noise within both SIM and PREMOS observations.

Revised historical solar irradiance forcing

Context. There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance difference between Maunder minimum and present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W/m2 making uncertain the simulation of the past and future climate. One reason for this disagreement is the applied evolution of the quiet Sun brightness in the solar irradiance reconstruction models. This work addresses the role of the quiet Sun model choice and updated solar magnetic activity proxies on the solar forcing reconstruction. Aims. We aim to establish a plausible range of the solar irradiance variability on decadal to millennial time scales. Methods. The spectral solar irradiance (SSI) is calculated as a weighted sum of the contributions from sunspot umbra/penumbra, fac- ulae and quiet Sun, which are pre-calculated with the spectral synthesis code NESSY. We introduce activity belts of the contributions from sunspots and faculae and a new structure model for the quietest state of the Sun. We assume that the brightness of the quiet Sun varies in time proportionally to the secular (22-year smoothed) variation of the solar modulation potential. Results. A new reconstruction of the TSI and SSI covering the period 6000 BCE - 2015 CE is presented. The model simulates solar irradiance variability during the satellite era well. The TSI change between the Maunder and recent minima ranges between 3.7 and 4.5 W/m2 depending on the applied solar modulation potential. The implementation of a new quietest Sun model reduces, by approximately a factor of two, the relative solar forcing compared to the largest previous estimation, while the application of updated solar modulation potential increases the forcing difference between Maunder minimum and the present by 25-40 %.