Tatsuya Hanaoka

Economic Impacts from PM2.5 Pollution-Related Health Effects in China: A Provincial-Level Analysis

This study evaluates the PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts on the national and provincial economy of China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the latest nonlinear exposure-response functions. Results show that the health and economic impacts may be substantial in provinces with a high PM2.5 concentration. In the WoPol scenario without PM2.5 pollution control policy, we estimate that China experiences a 2.00% GDP loss and 25.2 billion USD in health expenditure from PM2.5 pollution in 2030. In contrast, with control policy in the WPol scenario, a control investment of 101.8 billion USD (0.79% of GDP) and a gain of 1.17% of Chinas GDP from improving PM2.5 pollution are projected. At the provincial level, GDP loss in 2030 in the WoPol scenario is high in Tianjin (3.08%), Shanghai (2.98%), Henan (2.32%), Beijing (2.75%), and Hebei (2.60%) and the top five provinces with the highest additional health expenditure are Henan, Sichuan, Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu. Controlling PM2.5 pollution could bring positive benefits in two-thirds of provinces. Tianjin, Shanghai, Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, and Hebei experience most benefits from PM2.5 pollution control as a result of a higher PM2.5 pollution and dense population distribution. Conversely, the control investment is higher than GDP gain in some underdeveloped provinces, such as Ningxia, Guizhou, Shanxi, Gansu, and Yunnan.

Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited

This article assesses emissions scenarios in the literature, originally documented in the scenario database that was developed more than 7 years ago. The original scenario assessment and literature review has been used, among other things, as the basis for the quantification of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) reference scenarios and the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) stabilization scenarios. In the meantime, a large number of new emissions scenarios have been developed and published. We have collected the relevant information about these new scenarios with the objective to assess the more recent perspectives about future global emissions and to assess the changes in the perspectives about future emissions and their driving forces that may have occurred since the publication of SRES and TAR scenarios. Our analysis goes beyond mere comparisons of emissions ranges. In particular, we explore the underlying drivers of emissions using the so-called IPAT identity (Impacts are proportional to the product of Population, Affluence, and Technology). When IPAT analysis refers to carbon emissions it is called the Kaya identity, where carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are assumed to correspond to the product of population, per capita income, energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP), and CO2 intensity of energy. Comparing the recent scenario literature with the scenarios developed before TAR shows that there are strong similarities for the main underlying tendencies in many of the scenario’s driving forces and results.

Emissions scenarios database and regional mitigation analysis: a review of post-TAR mitigation scenarios

The objectives of this study were to carry out a review of mitigation scenarios that have emerged since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR), to update the current Emissions Scenarios Database with these scenarios, and to analyze emissions and mitigation scenarios. This article first discusses the characterization of mitigation scenarios and systematically classifies mitigation scenarios. Second, quantitative analyses on gross domestic product (GDP), population, carbon intensity, energy intensity, and carbon taxes are conducted at the regional level in the four regional aggregations used by the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Results show that the range of emissions trajectories is extensive and that the maximum potential mitigation of global CO2 emissions from the baseline level by 2100 is around 95%. There is a correlation between GDP growth and energy intensity improvement. The relationship between energy intensity improvement and carbon intensity reduction changes over the 21st century, with energy intensity improvement outweighing carbon intensity reduction in the first half of the century and carbon intensity reduction becoming more dominant in the latter half. Predicted carbon tax levels for 2100 range from around 50 to 1400 US

An impact assessment of sustainable technologies for the Chinese urban residential sector at provincial level

/t-C, although a uniform level of carbon tax brings about widely varying CO2 mitigation outcomes across different regions. The range of GDP loss, resulting from CO2 emissions mitigation, varies from −10% to 40% in 2100, with GDP losses in developing regions more evident than those in developed regions.

Understanding energy transitions

Recently, energy use in the urban residential sector of China has drastically increased due to higher incomes and urbanization. The fossil fuels dominant energy supply has since worsened the air quality, especially in urban areas. In this study we estimate the future energy service demands in Chinese urban residential areas, and then use an AIM/Enduse model to evaluate the emission reduction potential of CO2, SO2, NOx and PM. Considering the climate diversity and its impact on household energy service demands, our analysis is down-scaled to the provincial-level. The results show that in most of the regions, penetration of efficient technologies will bring CO2 emission reductions of over 20% compared to the baseline by the year 2030. Deployment of energy efficient technologies also co-benefits GHG emission reduction. However, efficient technology selection appears to differ across provinces due to climatic variation and economic disparity. For instance, geothermal heating technology is effective for the cold Northern areas while biomass technology contributes to emission reduction the most in the warm Southern areas.

Air pollution co-benefits of low carbon policies in road transport: a sub-national assessment for India

Transitions to cleaner, renewable energy are at the heart ofpolicies in many countries. The focus on renewables has, ifanything, become greater recently as uncertainty growsabout the viability and acceptability of alternatives toachieve low-carbon growth, including nuclear power andcarbon capture and storage (REN21 2010). The Fukushimaaccident has forced many governments to rethink theirnuclear energy plans—Japan has just shutdown their lastnuclear power plant, and Germany announced last year itwill be nuclear free by 2022. But transitions away fromfossil fuel-based energy systems have proven slow despitethe potential of renewable energy sources and advancingtechnologies to utilize them.Recent research in ‘Transitions Studies’ argues thattransitions will not be a technological fix but will requiresome combination of economic, political, institutional andsocio-cultural changes (Berkhout et al. 2009; Cohen et al.2010; Stephens et al. 2008). Without doubt, these transi-tions must be guided by an ethics that brings togethertechnology and sustainability. In the introductory messageto this special issue, Jean-Louis Armand calls for such anethic of long-range responsibility—one that is properlyembedded in sustainability science as a guide for ourfuture.In response to this complex issue, Sustainability Sciencehas organized a special issue on two related themes—thecosts of mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions andthe diffusion of clean energy technologies. The first fourpapers model abatement costs for world regions andsectors with a focus on medium term GHG emissiontargets (2020 and 2030)—a key step in stabilizing long-term climate change under the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). These studiesfind that transitions toward a low-carbon society are notan extension of the current trends, and far greater GHGreductions—both on national and global scales—arerequired in the mid-term. A further five papers explore thebarriers and opportunities of energy transitions on theground, using transition management theories to explainempirical cases in India, Japan, Malaysia and the UnitedStates.Hanaoka and Kainuma conduct a comparison of GHGmarginal abatement cost (MAC) curves from 0 to200 US

A quantitative evaluation of fluorocarbon emissions and a study of multilateral environmental policies

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A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes

This letter assesses low carbon scenarios for India at the subnational level in the passenger road transport sector. We estimate the future passenger mobility demand and assess the impact of carbon mitigation policies using the Asia–Pacific Integrated Assessment/Enduse models. This letter focuses on the transitions of energy and emissions of passenger transport in India in alternate scenarios i.e. the business-as-usual scenario and a low carbon scenario that aligns to the 2 °C temperature stabilization target agreed under the global climate change negotiations. The modelling results show that passenger mobility demand will rise in all sub-national regions of India in the coming few decades. However, the volume and modal structure will vary across regions. Modelling assessment results show that aligning global low carbon policies with local policies has potential to deliver significant air quality co-benefits. This analysis provides insights into the comparative dynamics of environmental policymaking at sub-national levels.

Technological feasibility and costs of achieving a 50 % reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050: mid- and long-term perspectives

Publisher Summary The objective of this chapter is to evaluate the quantitative impacts of fluorocarbon emissions and to examine the multilateral environmental policies for reducing these emissions for the abatement of global warming as well as the prevention of ozone depletion. It discusses the gaps between the Montreal Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol, focused on the emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as well as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). An essential international framework is proposed for regulations on the emissions of CFCs and HCFCs. A new inventory of fluorocarbon consumption data is also created and examined the possibility of technology transfers from Japan to developing countries in order to reduce fluorocarbon emissions under the new international frameworks. As the result of the new inventory of fluorocarbon consumption, it was found that the consumption of CFCs and HCFCs have been far larger than that of HFCs in the world.