Tayfur Bayat

Re-Visiting Fisher Effect for Fragile Five Economies

Abstract In this study, we aim to investigate the relationship between interest rate and inflation rate in the context of the Fisher effect hypothesis for Fragile five economies. In this regard, we employ recently developed panel co-integration and panel causality test methods. The bi-directional causal relation between interest rate and inflation rate exists only in Brazil and Indonesia. On the other hand, there is no causation linkage in India. Results imply that Fisher effect exists only in Brazil and Indonesia.

Türkiye'de İşsizlik Histerisi ve Star Modelleri Uygulaması

Bu calismada Turkiye’nin 1923–2010 donemine ait yillik issizlik orani kullanilarak zamanla meydana gelen soklarin Turkiye’deki issizligin dogal oranina etkisi olup olmadigi arastirilmistir. Genisletilmis Dickey-Fuller (1981) birim kok testi kullanilarak serinin duzey degerlerinde duragan olmadigi sonucuna varilmistir. Literaturde issizlik histerisinin varliginin sinanmasinda genis kullanim alani olan yumusak gecisli otoregresif modelleri (STAR) ve dogrusal olmayan etki-tepki fonksiyonlari kullanilmistir. Yumusak gecisli otoregresif modeli uygulamasina gore Terasvirta (1994) sureci ve Escribano-Jorda (1997) proseduru icin lojistik yumusak gecisli otoregresif modeli secilmistir. Model uygulamasinin sonucunda, ic ve dis iktisadi dalgalanmalarin issizligin dogal oraninda degismelere neden oldugu bulunmustur.