Ted R. Feldpausch

Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest

Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 × 1015 to 1.6 × 1015 grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.

Increasing carbon storage in intact African tropical forests

The response of terrestrial vegetation to a globally changing environment is central to predictions of future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The role of tropical forests is critical because they are carbon-dense and highly productive. Inventory plots across Amazonia show that old-growth forests have increased in carbon storage over recent decades, but the response of one-third of the world’s tropical forests in Africa is largely unknown owing to an absence of spatially extensive observation networks. Here we report data from a ten-country network of long-term monitoring plots in African tropical forests. We find that across 79 plots (163 ha) above-ground carbon storage in live trees increased by 0.63 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 between 1968 and 2007 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.22–0.94; mean interval, 1987–96). Extrapolation to unmeasured forest components (live roots, small trees, necromass) and scaling to the continent implies a total increase in carbon storage in African tropical forest trees of 0.34 Pg C yr-1 (CI, 0.15–0.43). These reported changes in carbon storage are similar to those reported for Amazonian forests per unit area, providing evidence that increasing carbon storage in old-growth forests is a pan-tropical phenomenon. Indeed, combining all standardized inventory data from this study and from tropical America and Asia together yields a comparable figure of 0.49 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 (n = 156; 562 ha; CI, 0.29–0.66; mean interval, 1987–97). This indicates a carbon sink of 1.3 Pg C yr-1 (CI, 0.8–1.6) across all tropical forests during recent decades. Taxon-specific analyses of African inventory and other data suggest that widespread changes in resource availability, such as increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, may be the cause of the increase in carbon stocks, as some theory and models predict.

Drought–mortality relationships for tropical forests

*The rich ecology of tropical forests is intimately tied to their moisture status. Multi-site syntheses can provide a macro-scale view of these linkages and their susceptibility to changing climates. Here, we report pan-tropical and regional-scale analyses of tree vulnerability to drought. *We assembled available data on tropical forest tree stem mortality before, during, and after recent drought events, from 119 monitoring plots in 10 countries concentrated in Amazonia and Borneo. *In most sites, larger trees are disproportionately at risk. At least within Amazonia, low wood density trees are also at greater risk of drought-associated mortality, independent of size. For comparable drought intensities, trees in Borneo are more vulnerable than trees in the Amazon. There is some evidence for lagged impacts of drought, with mortality rates remaining elevated 2 yr after the meteorological event is over. *These findings indicate that repeated droughts would shift the functional composition of tropical forests toward smaller, denser-wooded trees. At very high drought intensities, the linear relationship between tree mortality and moisture stress apparently breaks down, suggesting the existence of moisture stress thresholds beyond which some tropical forests would suffer catastrophic tree mortality.

Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

CARBON AND NUTRIENT ACCUMULATION IN SECONDARY FORESTS REGENERATING ON PASTURES IN CENTRAL AMAZONIA

Over the past three decades, large expanses of forest in the Amazon Basin were converted to pasture, many of which later degraded to woody fallows and were abandoned. While the majority of tropical secondary forest (SF) studies have examined post-deforestation or post-agricultural succession, we examined post-pasture forest recovery in 10 forests ranging in age from 0 to 14 years since abandonment. We measured above- ground biomass and soil nutrients to 45 cm depth and computed total site carbon (C) and nutrient stocks to gain an understanding of the dynamics of nutrient and C buildup in regenerating SF in central Amazonia. Aboveground biomass accrual was rapid, 11.0 Mg·ha 21 ·yr 21 , in the young SFs. Within 12-14 yr, they accumulated up to 128.1 Mg/ha of dry aboveground biomass, equivalent to 25-50% of primary forest biomass in the region. Wood nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations decreased with forest age. Aboveground P and calcium (Ca) stocks accu- mulated at a rate of 1.2 and 29.4 kg·ha 21 ·yr 21 ; extractable soil P stocks declined as forest age increased. Although soil stocks of exchangeable Ca (207.0 6 23.7 kg/ha) and extractable P (8.3 6 1.5 kg/ha) were low in the first 45 cm, both were rapidly translocated from soil to plant pools. Soil N stocks increased with forest age, probably due to N fixation, at- mospheric deposition, and/or subsoil mining. Total soil C storage to 45 cm depth ranged between 42 and 84 Mg/ha, with the first 15 cm storing 40-45% of the total. Total C accrual (7.04 Mg C·ha 21 ·yr 21 ) in both aboveground and soil pools was similar or higher than values reported in other studies. Tropical SFs regrowing on lightly to moderately used pasture rapidly sequester C and rebuild total nutrient capital following pasture abandonment. Translocation of some nutrients from deep soil (.45 cm depth) may be important to sustaining productivity and continuing biomass ac- cumulation in these forests. The soil pool represents the greatest potential for long-term C gains; however, soil nutrient deficits may limit future productivity.

Using satellite radar backscatter to predict above-ground woody biomass: A consistent relationship across four different African landscapes

[1] Regional-scale above-ground biomass (AGB) estimates of tropical savannas and woodlands are highly uncertain, despite their global importance for ecosystems services and as carbon stores. In response, we collated field inventory data from 253 plots at four study sites in Cameroon, Uganda and Mozambique, and examined the relationships between field-measured AGB and cross-polarized radar backscatter values derived from ALOS PALSAR, an L-band satellite sensor. The relationships were highly significant, similar among sites, and displayed high prediction accuracies up to 150 Mg ha � 1 (±� 20%). AGB predictions for any given site obtained using equations derived from data from only the other three sites generated only small increases in error. The results suggest that a widely applicable general relationship exists between AGB and L-band backscatter for lower-biomass tropical woody vegetation. This relationship allows regional-scale AGB estimation, required for example by planned REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) schemes. Citation: Mitchard, E. T. A., S. S. Saatchi, I. H. Woodhouse, G. Nangendo, N. S. Ribeiro, M. Williams, C. M. Ryan, S. L. Lewis, T. R. Feldpausch, and P. Meir (2009), Using satellite radar backscatter to predict above-ground woody biomass: A consistent relationship across four different African landscapes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23401, doi:10.1029/2009GL040692.

Markedly divergent estimates of Amazon forest carbon density from ground plots and satellites

Aim The accurate mapping of forest carbon stocks is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle, for assessing emissions from deforestation, and for rational land-use planning. Remote sensing (RS) is currently the key tool for this purpose, but RS does not estimate vegetation biomass directly, and thus may miss significant spatial variations in forest structure. We test the stated accuracy of pantropical carbon maps using a large independent field dataset. Location Tropical forests of the Amazon basin. The permanent archive of the field plot data can be accessed at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5521/FORESTPLOTS.NET/2014_1 Methods Two recent pantropical RS maps of vegetation carbon are compared to a unique ground-plot dataset, involving tree measurements in 413 large inventory plots located in nine countries. The RS maps were compared directly to field plots, and kriging of the field data was used to allow area-based comparisons. Results The two RS carbon maps fail to capture the main gradient in Amazon forest carbon detected using 413 ground plots, from the densely wooded tall forests of the north-east, to the light-wooded, shorter forests of the south-west. The differences between plots and RS maps far exceed the uncertainties given in these studies, with whole regions over- or under-estimated by > 25%, whereas regional uncertainties for the maps were reported to be < 5%. Main conclusions Pantropical biomass maps are widely used by governments and by projects aiming to reduce deforestation using carbon offsets, but may have significant regional biases. Carbon-mapping techniques must be revised to account for the known ecological variation in tree wood density and allometry to create maps suitable for carbon accounting. The use of single relationships between tree canopy height and above-ground biomass inevitably yields large, spatially correlated errors. This presents a significant challenge to both the forest conservation and remote sensing communities, because neither wood density nor species assemblages can be reliably mapped from space.

ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH IN THE LARGE-SCALE BIOSPHERE– ATMOSPHERE EXPERIMENT IN AMAZONIA: EARLY RESULTS

The Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multinational, interdisciplinary research program led by Brazil. Ecological studies in LBA focus on how tropical forest conversion, regrowth, and selective logging influence carbon storage, nutrient dynamics, trace gas fluxes, and the prospect for sustainable land use in the Amazon region. Early results from ecological studies within LBA emphasize the var- iability within the vast Amazon region and the profound effects that land-use and land- cover changes are having on that landscape. The predominant land cover of the Amazon region is evergreen forest; nonetheless, LBA studies have observed strong seasonal patterns in gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, as well as phenology and tree growth. The seasonal patterns vary spatially and interannually and evidence suggests that these patterns are driven not only by variations in weather but also by innate biological rhythms of the forest species. Rapid rates of deforestation have marked the forests of the Amazon region over the past three decades. Evidence from ground-based surveys and remote sensing show that substantial areas of forest are being degraded by logging activities and through the collapse of forest edges. Because forest edges and logged forests are susceptible to fire, positive feedback cycles of forest degradation may be initiated by land-use-change events. LBA studies indicate that cleared lands in the Amazon, once released from cultivation or pasture usage, regenerate biomass rapidly. However, the pace of biomass accumulation is dependent upon past land use and the depletion of nutrients by unsustainable land-management practices. The challenge for ongoing research within LBA is to integrate the recognition of diverse patterns and processes into general models for prediction of regional ecosystem function.

Drought-induced shifts in the floristic and functional composition of tropical forests in Ghana

The future of tropical forests under global environmental change is uncertain, with biodiversity and carbon stocks at risk if precipitation regimes alter. Here, we assess changes in plant functional composition and biomass in 19 plots from a variety of forest types during two decades of long-term drought in Ghana. We find a consistent increase in dry forest, deciduous, canopy species with intermediate light demand and a concomitant decrease in wet forest, evergreen, sub-canopy and shade-tolerant species. These changes in composition are accompanied by an increase in above-ground biomass. Our results indicate that by altering composition in favour of drought-tolerant species, the biomass stocks of these forests may be more resilient to longer term drought than short-term studies of severe individual droughts suggest.

Legacy of fire slows carbon accumulation in Amazonian forest regrowth

Amazonian farmers and ranchers use fire to clear land for agriculture and pasture as part of extensive land-use strategies that have deforested 500 000 km2 over the past 25 years. Ash from burning biomass fertilizes crops and pastures, but declining productivity often occurs after a few years, generally leading to land abandonment and further clearing. Subsequent forest regrowth partially offsets carbon emissions from deforestation, but is often repeatedly cleared and burned. In the first quantitative, basin-wide assessment of the effect of repeated clearing and burning on forest regrowth, our analysis of data from 93 stands at nine locations across the region indicates that stands with a history of five or more fires suffer on average a greater than 50% reduction in carbon accumulation. In the absence of management interventions, Amazonian landscapes dominated by this pronounced legacy of fire are apt to accumulate very little carbon and will remain highly susceptible to recurrent burning.