Teresa S.M. Tsang

Secular Trends in Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and Implications on the Projections for Future Prevalence

Background— Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050. Methods and Results— The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n=4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence estimates. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person-years was 3.04 (95% CI, 2.78 to 3.31) in 1980 and 3.68 (95% CI, 3.42 to 3.95) in 2000. According to Poisson regression with adjustment for age and sex, incidence of AF increased significantly (P=0.014), with a relative increase of 12.6% (95% CI, 2.1 to 23.1) over 21 years. The increase in age-adjusted AF incidence did not differ between men and women (P=0.84). According to the US population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF is projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, assuming no further increase in age-adjusted incidence of AF, but 15.9 million if the increase in incidence continues. Conclusions— The age-adjusted incidence of AF increased significantly in Olmsted County during 1980 to 2000. Whether or not this rate of increase continues, the projected number of persons with AF for the United States will exceed 10 million by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for primary prevention strategies against AF development.

Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction as a predictor of the first diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in 840 elderly men and women

OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to determine whether diastolic dysfunction is associated with increased risk of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in older adults with no history of atrial arrhythmia. BACKGROUND Few data exist regarding the relationship between diastolic function and NVAF. METHODS The clinical and echocardiographic characteristics of patients age > or =65 years who had an echocardiogram performed between 1990 and 1998 were reviewed. Exclusion criteria were history of atrial arrhythmia, stroke, valvular or congenital heart disease, or pacemaker implantation. Patients were followed up in their medical records to the last clinical visit or death for documentation of first AF. RESULTS Of 840 patients (39% men; mean [+/- SD] age, 75 +/- 7 years), 80 (9.5%) developed NVAF over a mean (+/- SD) follow-up of 4.1 +/- 2.7 years. Abnormal relaxation, pseudonormal, and restrictive left ventricular diastolic filling were associated with hazard ratios of 3.33 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5 to 7.4; p = 0.003), 4.84 (95% CI, 2.05 to 11.4; p < 0.001), and 5.26 (95% CI, 2.3 to 12.03; p < 0.001), respectively, when compared with normal diastolic function. After a number of adjustments, diastolic function profile remained incremental to history of congestive heart failure and previous myocardial infarction for prediction of NVAF. Age-adjusted Kaplan-Meier five-year risks of NVAF were 1%, 12%, 14%, and 21% for normal, abnormal relaxation, pseudonormal, and restrictive diastolic filling, respectively. CONCLUSIONS; The presence and severity of diastolic dysfunction are independently predictive of first documented NVAF in the elderly.

Left atrial volume: important risk marker of incident atrial fibrillation in 1655 older men and women

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the contribution of left atrial (LA) volume in predicting atrial fibrillation (AF). PATIENTS AND METHODS In this retrospective cohort study, a random sample of 2200 adults was identified from all Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents who had undergone transthoracic echocardiographic assessment between 1990 and 1998 and were 65 years of age or older at the time of examination, were in sinus rhythm, and had no history of AF or other atrial arrhythmias, stroke, pacemaker, congenital heart disease, or valve surgery. The LA volume was measured off-line by using a biplane area-length method. Clinical characteristics and the outcome event of incident AF were determined by retrospective review of medical records. Echocardiographic data were retrieved from the laboratory database. From this cohort, 1655 patients in whom LA size data were available were followed from baseline echocardiogram until development of AF or death. The clinical and echocardiographic associations of AF, especially with respect to the role of LA volume in predicting AF, were determined. RESULTS A total of 666 men and 989 women, mean +/- SD age of 75.2 +/- 7.3 years (range, 65-105 years), were followed for a mean +/- SD of 3.97 +/- 2.75 years (range, < 1.00-10.78 years); 189 (11.4%) developed AF. Cox model 5-year cumulative risks of AF by quartiles of LA volume were 3%, 12%, 15%, and 26%, respectively. With Cox proportional hazards multivariate models, logarithmic LA volume was an independent predictor of AF, incremental to clinical risk factors. After adjusting for age, sex, valvular heart disease, and hypertension, a 30% larger LA volume was associated with a 43% greater risk of AF, incremental to history of congestive heart failure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.887; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.230-2.895; P = .004), myocardial infarction (HR, 1.751; 95% CI, 1.189-2.577; P = .004), and diabetes (HR, 1.734; 95% CI, 1.066-2.819; P = .03). Left atrial volume remained incremental to combined clinical risk factors and M-mode LA dimension for prediction of AF (P < .001). CONCLUSION This study showed that a larger LA volume was associated with a higher risk of AF in older patients. The predictive value of LA volume was incremental to that of clinical risk profile and conventional M-mode LA dimension.

Structural and Functional Remodeling of the Left Atrium: Clinical and Therapeutic Implications for Atrial Fibrillation

Left atrial (LA) structural and functional remodeling reflects a spectrum of pathophysiological changes that have occurred in response to specific stressors. These changes include alterations at the levels of ionic channels, cellular energy balance, neurohormonal expression, inflammatory response, and physiologic adaptations. There is convincing evidence demonstrating an important pathophysiological association between LA remodeling and atrial fibrillation (AF). Measures that will prevent, attenuate, or halt these processes of LA remodeling may have a major public health impact with respect to the epidemic of AF. In this review, we describe the mechanisms involved in LA remodeling and highlight the existing and potential therapeutic options for its reversal, and implications for AF development.

Consecutive 1127 Therapeutic Echocardiographically Guided Pericardiocenteses: Clinical Profile, Practice Patterns, and Outcomes Spanning 21 Years

OBJECTIVES To evaluate consecutive therapeutic echocardiographically (echo)-guided pericardiocenteses performed at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn, from 1979 to 2000 and to determine whether patient profiles, practice patterns, and outcomes have changed over time. PATIENTS AND METHODS Consecutive echo-guided pericardiocenteses performed between February 1, 1979, and January 31, 2000, for treatment of clinically significant pericardial effusions were identified in the Mayo Clinic Echocardiographic-guided Pericardiocentesis Registry. The medical records of these patients were examined, and a follow-up survey was conducted. Clinical profiles, echocardiographic findings, procedural details, and outcomes were determined for 3 periods: February 1, 1979, through January 31, 1986; February 1, 1986, through January 31, 1993; and February 1, 1993, through January 31, 2000. RESULTS During the 21-year study period, 1127 therapeutic echo-guided pericardiocenteses were performed in 977 patients. The mean +/- SD age at pericardiocentesis increased from 49+/-14 years in period 1 to 57+/-14 years in period 3. In recent years, cardiothoracic surgery replaced malignancy as the leading cause of an effusion requiring pericardiocentesis and together with malignancy and perforation from catheter-based procedures accounted for nearly 70% of all pericardiocenteses performed. The procedural success rate was 97% overall, with a total complication rate of 4.7% (major, 1.2%; minor, 3.5%). These rates did not change significantly over time. The use of a pericardial catheter for extended drainage increased from 23% in period 1 to 75% in period 3 (P<.001), whereas rates of effusion recurrence and pericardial surgery decreased significantly (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS The profile of patients presenting with clinically significant pericardial effusion has changed over time. Increasing numbers of older patients and those who have undergone cardiothoracic surgery or catheter-based procedures develop effusions that can be rapidly, safely, and effectively managed with echo-guided pericardiocentesis. Extended drainage with use of a pericardial catheter has become standard practice, and concomitantly, recurrence rates and need for surgical management have decreased considerably.

Two-Dimensional Speckle-Tracking Echocardiography of the Left Atrium: Feasibility and Regional Contraction and Relaxation Differences in Normal Subjects

BACKGROUND Increased left atrial (LA) size and reduced global contractility are related to adverse cardiac events. The potential incremental value of assessing regional LA contractility is unknown. To assess the feasibility of measuring this variable angle, independent 2-dimensional speckle-tracking strain echocardiography (2D-SpTr) was used to measure regional LA strain (epsilon) and strain rate (SR) in normal individuals of various ages. METHODS From standard apical views, 2D-SpTr was used on 84 normal subjects to measure longitudinal velocity, epsilon, and SR in 13 LA segmental regions. The values obtained from the different atrial regions were compared with each other and corresponding LA volumes before and after LA contraction. RESULTS Regional LA epsilon and SR could be measured in 77 of 84 normal subjects (94%). A consistent pattern of differences in LA regional function was noted with the annular regions, and particularly the inferior wall having a larger average peak velocity and epsilon and SR values in comparison with the mid and superior LA segments. Peak epsilon and SR during LA contraction had only a modest correlation with LA volumes. CONCLUSION The angle-independent technique of 2D-SpTr tracking can analyze regional LA epsilon and SR in 94% of normal subjects. Regional differences in LA contractility are consistently present. The annular regions, and especially the inferior wall have the highest values for LA epsilon and SR. The significance of these findings and their possible use in identifying disease states will require further study.

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation in incident stroke cases and matched population controls in Rochester, Minnesota: Changes over three decades

OBJECTIVES We sought evidence of a change in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) over a 30-year period among residents of Rochester, Minnesota. BACKGROUND Atrial fibrillation is increasingly encountered in clinical practice, but there is limited data on secular trends of AF over time. METHODS Within a longitudinal case-control study of ischemic stroke, the prevalence of AF and of selected comorbid conditions among incident stroke cases and age- and gender-matched controls between 1960 and 1989 was determined. RESULTS The mean age +/- standard deviation for the 1,871 stroke cases (45% men) and matched controls was 75 +/- 11 years. For cases, age-adjusted estimates of AF prevalence for 1960 to 1969, 1970 to 1979, and 1980 to 1989 were 11%, 13%, and 16%, respectively, for men, and 13%, 16%, and 20% for women. For controls, the rates were 5%, 8%, and 12%, respectively, for men, and 4%, 6%, and 8% for women. Increasing AF prevalence was associated with increasing age (doubling of odds per decade of age in both cases and controls) and calendar time adjusted for age and gender (cases: odds ratio [OR] per 5 years 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05 to 1.22; controls: OR per 5 years 1.24, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.37). The rates of increase with calendar time were significant for cases (p = 0.001) and controls (p < 0.001) and comparable between the genders. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of AF increased significantly in ischemic stroke patients and their controls from 1960 to 1989 in Rochester, Minnesota, independent of age and gender. The rate of increase did not differ significantly between men and women.

Left Atrial Volume in the Prediction of First Ischemic Stroke in an Elderly Cohort Without Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVE To determine the clinical importance of left atrial (LA) volume in the prediction of first ischemic stroke. PATIENTS AND METHODS This retrospective cohort study included randomly selected residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, aged 65 years or older, who had undergone transthoracic echocardiography at least once at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn, between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 1998, were in sinus rhythm, and had no history of stroke, transient ischemic attack, atrial fibrillation, or valvular heart disease. Patients were monitored through medical records for first ischemic stroke or death. RESULTS Of 1554 residents (59% women) aged 75+/-7 years, 92 (6%) had experienced at least 1 ischemic stroke over 4.3+/-2.7 years (incident stroke rate, 1.4 per 100 person-years). Left atrial volume of 32 mL/m2 or greater (hazard ratio [HR], 1.63; confidence interval [CI], 1.08-2.46) was independent of age (HR, 1.04; CI, 1.02-1.07), diabetes (HR, 1.91; CI, 1.07-3.41), myocardial infarction (HR, 1.64; CI, 1.01-2.64), and hyperlipidemia (HR, 1.55; CI, 1.01-2.37) for the prediction of first ischemic stroke. When quartiles of LA dimension were plotted against quartiles of indexed LA volume, a stepwise increase in risk with each quartile increment was evident only for indexed LA volume. Also, an LA volume of 32 mL/m2 or greater was associated with an increased mortality risk (HR, 1.30; CI, 1.09-1.56), independent of age, sex, and stroke status. CONCLUSIONS In our elderly cohort with no prior atrial fibrillation, LA volume was independently predictive of first ischemic stroke, incremental to age, diabetes, myocardial infarction, and hyperlipidemia. It was also an independent predictor of death.

Left atrial function: physiology, assessment, and clinical implications

The interest in the left atrium (LA) has resurged over the recent years. In the early 1980s, multiple studies were conducted to determine the normal values of LA size. Over the past decade, LA size as an imaging biomarker has been consistently shown to be a powerful predictor of outcomes, including major public health problems such as atrial fibrillation, heart failure, stroke, and death. More recently, functional assessment of the LA has been shown to be, at least as, if not more robust, a marker of cardiovascular outcomes. Current available data suggest that the combined evaluation of LA size and LA function will augment prognostication. The aim of this review is to provide a critical appraisal of current echocardiographic techniques for the assessment of LA function and the implications of such assessment for prediction and disease prevention.

Left Atrial Reservoir Function as a Potent Marker for First Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter in Persons ≥ 65 Years of Age

The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the incremental value of left atrial (LA) function for the prediction of risk for first atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter. Maximum and minimum LA volumes were quantitated by echocardiography in 574 adults (mean age 74 +/- 6 years, 52% men) without a history or evidence of atrial arrhythmia. During a mean follow-up period of 1.9 +/- 1.2 years, 30 subjects (5.2%) developed electrocardiographically confirmed AF or atrial flutter. Subjects with new AF or atrial flutter had lower LA reservoir function, as measured by total LA emptying fraction (38% vs 49%, p <0.0001) and higher maximum LA volumes (47 vs 40 ml/m(2), p = 0.005). An increase in age-adjusted risk for AF or atrial flutter was evident when the cohort was stratified according to medians of LA emptying fraction (< or =49%: hazard ratio 6.5, p = 0.001) and LA volume (> or =38 ml/m(2): hazard ratio 2.0, p = 0.07), with the risk being highest for subjects with concomitant LA emptying fractions < or =49% and LA volume > or =38 ml/m(2) (hazard ratio 9.3, p = 0.003). LA emptying fraction (p = 0.002) was associated with risk for first AF or atrial flutter after adjusting for baseline clinical risk factors for AF or atrial flutter, left ventricular ejection fraction, diastolic function grade, and LA volume. In conclusion, reduced LA reservoir function markedly increases the propensity for first AF or atrial flutter, independent of LA volume, left ventricular function, and clinical risk factors.