Teuvo Karstinen

Climate change drives microevolution in a wild bird

To ensure long-term persistence, organisms must adapt to climate change, but an evolutionary response to a quantified selection pressure driven by climate change has not been empirically demonstrated in a wild population. Here, we show that pheomelanin-based plumage colouration in tawny owls is a highly heritable trait, consistent with a simple Mendelian pattern of brown (dark) dominance over grey (pale). We show that strong viability selection against the brown morph occurs, but only under snow-rich winters. As winter conditions became milder in the last decades, selection against the brown morph diminished. Concurrent with this reduced selection, the frequency of brown morphs increased rapidly in our study population during the last 28 years and nationwide during the last 48 years. Hence, we show the first evidence that recent climate change alters natural selection in a wild population leading to a microevolutionary response, which demonstrates the ability of wild populations to evolve in response to climate change.

The colour of fitness: plumage coloration and lifetime reproductive success in the tawny owl

We studied variation in plumage colour and life history in a population of tawny owls (Strix aluco) in southern Finland, using 26 years of data on individually marked male and female owls. Colour was scored on a semi-continuous scale from pale grey to reddish brown. Colour scoring was repeatable and showed a bimodal distribution (grey and brown morph) in both sexes. During the study period, colour composition was stable in the study population in both sexes. The sexes did not mate assortatively with respect to their colour. Colour was a highly heritable trait and was under selection. Grey-coloured male and female owls had a higher lifetime production of fledglings, and grey-coloured male (but not female) owls produced more recruits during their lifetime than brown individuals. Selection on colour was mediated through viability selection and not through fecundity selection. Our results reveal remarkably strong selection on a genetically determined phenotypic trait.

Population dynamics in a cyclic environment: consequences of cyclic food abundance on tawny owl reproduction and survival

1. Understanding which factors regulate population dynamics may help us to understand how a population would respond to environmental change, and why some populations are declining. 2. In southern Finland, vole abundance shows a three-phased cycle of low, increase and decrease phases, but these have been fading out in recent years. During five such cycles (1981-1995), all tawny owls Strix aluco were censused in a 250-km(2) study area, and their reproduction and survival were monitored. 3. Males and females showed similar dynamics, but experienced breeders recruited more offspring and had higher survival than first breeders. Offspring recruitment, but not survival of breeding individuals varied in accordance with vole abundance. 4. The populations numerical response to prey abundance was primarily due to first-breeding individuals entering the population in the increase phase when immigration was the highest. First-breeding birds were younger, but experienced breeders were older in more favourable vole years. 5. A stage-specific matrix population model integrating survival and fecundity showed that, despite obvious variation in fecundity between vole cycle phases, this variation had limited importance for overall tawny owl population dynamics, but that the survival of experienced breeders during the low phase is most important for population growth. 6. Model and data agreed that the vole cycle drives the dynamics of this avian predator by limiting the recruitment of new breeders during the low phase. Population dynamics hence differ not only from the classic example of the species in a more temperate region in the UK where the number of territories is stable across years, but also from the dynamics of other avian vole predators in Fennoscandia where the recurring crash in vole abundance drastically lowers adult survival thereby creating vacancies.

Blood parasites mediate morph-specific maintenance costs in a colour polymorphic wild bird

Parasites can mediate profound negative effects on host fitness. Colour polymorphism has been suggested to covary genetically with intrinsic physiological properties. Tawny owl colour polymorphism is highly heritable with two main morphs, grey and brown. We show that experimental medication acts to reduce blood parasites and that medicated grey females maintain body mass during breeding, whereas medicated brown females decline in body mass similar to control females of both morphs. We find no effect of medication on general immunoglobulin levels, antigen‐specific humoral response or H/L ratio. In the descriptive data, both morphs have similar blood parasite infection rates, but blood parasite infection is associated with decreased body mass in brown but not in grey females. We conclude that blood parasite infection primarily has somatic costs, which differ between the two highly heritable tawny owl colour morphs with more pronounced costs in the grey (little pigmented) morph than in the brown (heavily pigmented) morph. Because our descriptive results imply the opposite pattern, our findings highlight the need of experimental manipulation when studying heritable variation in hosts’ response to parasitism.

Clutch size of a vole-eating bird of prey as an indicator of vole abundance

Voles are often considered as harmful pests in agriculture and silviculture. Then, the knowledge of their abundance may be of considerable economical importance. Commonly used methods in the monitoring of vole abundances are relatively laborious, expensive, and spatially quite restricted. We demonstrate how the mean clutch size of the tawny owl Strix aluco may be cost-effectively used to predict relative densities of voles over large areas. Besides installing a number of suitable nest boxes, this vole monitoring system primarily includes only the inspection of the nest boxes and counting the number of tawny owl eggs found two times during a few weeks period in spring. Our results showed a considerable agreement between the fluctuations in the mean clutch size of tawny owls and the late spring abundance indices of small voles (Myodes, Microtus) in our study areas in southern Finland. The mean clutch size of the tawny owl reflected spring vole abundance over the spatial range examined, suggesting its suitability for general forecasting purposes. From the pest management point of view, an additional merit of the present method is that it may increase numbers of vole-eaters that provide biological control of vole populations.