Thalia Anagnos

Development of a National Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology

This paper summarizes the development of a geographic information system (GIS)-based regional loss estimation methodology for the United States funded as part of a four-and-one-half year project by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). The methodology incorporates state-of-the-art approaches for: characterizing earth science hazards, including ground shaking, liquefaction, and landsliding; estimating damage and losses to buildings and lifelines; estimating casualties, shelter requirements and economic losses; and data entry to support loss estimates. The history of the methodology development; the methodologys scope, framework, and limitations; supporting GIS software; potential user applications; and future developments are discussed.

Slotted Bolted Connections in Aseismic Design for Concentrically Braced Connections

The use of concentrically braced steel frames to satisfy lateral force requirements is a common design practice in regions of strong seismicity. They provide a very efficient means of fulfilling the dual objectives of earthquake resistant design, that is, damage control and collapse prevention. While tensile yielding and inelastic buckling of bracing elements provide the basic energy absorbing mechanism, there are inherent problems with member behavior under multiple cycles of inelastic deformations. Inelastic energy dissapation, however, may also be provided by friction resistance in slotted bolted connections, thus eliminating the need for inelastic member buckling. Limited laboratory tests indicate that this concept may be a viable alternative for use as a lateral force resisting system for both new construction and the seismic upgrading of existing structures.

A review of earthquake occurrence models for seismic hazard analysis

Abstract A large number of probabilistic earthquake occurrence models are currently available for seismic hazard assessment. This paper reviews the basic assumptions of the various models, summarizes their stochastic representations and discusses the parameters needed for applications. While the Poisson model is one of the most commonly used in practice it is limited in its representation of the physical earthquake driving mechanism and in its characterization of distinct seismicity patterns. From comparisons of the various models, it is observed that while the Poisson model may apply to regions characterized by moderate frequent earthquakes, other stochastic representations such as the Markov and semi-Markov models describe the sequences of events more adequately at regions with large infrequent earthquakes. Regions that have unique seismicity patterns such as clustering foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences are better represented by other stochastic models. It is found, however, that some of these models are difficult to implement and rather restrictive primarily because they require a considerable amount of additional data for model parameter estimation.

Codified Design of Steel Structures using Monte Carlo Techniques

Abstract Considering the development of computers and information technology, the present reliability assessment concept and format of standards for structural steel design seem to be outmoded. With designers using probabilistic reliability assessment concepts, Monte Carlo techniques and databases as tools, a reconstruction of the present standards can be expected. This paper addresses one possible alternative for qualitative changes in design standards and corresponding reengineering of the entire reliability assessment procedure. This includes introducing a probability of failure as a measure of structural reliability, developing a new generation of “hybrid” standards (basic and secondary standards, databases and software mutually interconnected using information nets), expressing variable input data as histograms and using simulation techniques to analyze the complex probabilistic interrelationships between load effects, material properties, and other quantities affecting reliability. The significance of the transition from a deterministic to probabilistic “way of thinking” is emphasized in terms of both education and design practice.

Introducing sustainability concepts in lower division engineering core courses

Engineers will play a significant role in designing, building and implementing creative solutions to major global challenges that we face. To prepare the 21st century engineer, sustainability concepts needs to be covered systematically throughout the curriculum and in all majors of the engineering departments. This NSF-funded project is integrating fundamental concepts of sustainability into two core lower division engineering courses (Introduction to Engineering and Introduction to Materials). The outcome of the project is three learning modules covering the topics of renewable and non-renewable energy sources, energy conversion and efficiency, water and energy, and product life cycle analysis. The modules include lectures, hands-on laboratories, and interactive Excel spreadsheets. The modules, along with the accompanying equipment and software, are currently being piloted in SJSU courses and will be disseminated to local the community colleges through a hands-on workshop for community college teachers. Preliminary assessment materials have been collected for the past year to determine effectiveness of the modules.

Motivating Technical Writing through Study of the Environment

Today’s engineers must be more than just technically competent. To be successful in our increasingly global economy in which teamwork and interdisciplinary interaction are the norm, engineers must have excellent communication skills. In recognition of industry needs, the San Jose State University College of Engineering redesigned its technical communication course to ensure that students graduate with writing and speaking skills that will transfer readily to their career needs and the global arena. The course aims to motivate students through exploring topics that are meaningful to them and using communication formats that they will see in the workplace. Combining technical communication with study of the environment broadens the course to meet multiple Accreditation Board of Engineering and Technology outcomes. This paper describes the course goals, organization, management, selected assignments, and assessment. Assessment data indicate that at the end of the semester students, on average, have gained be...

Earthquake Loss Estimates and Policy Implications for Nonductile Concrete Buildings in Los Angeles

The collapse potential of nonductile concrete buildings represents a substantial life safety hazard globally that can be mitigated through carefully crafted policy. Mitigation policy should be approached incrementally by (1) understanding problem scale, (2) screening for low- and high-risk buildings, (3) performing engineering analysis for potentially vulnerable buildings, and (4) retrofit or replacement of high-risk structures. This research addresses initial stages of this sequence for Los Angeles, California. The intent was to investigate approaches for informing mitigation priorities by: characterizing the inventory of approximately 1,500 pre-1976 concrete buildings; estimating risk, including identification of building types that contribute most substantially to the risk; and investigating the impact of retrofit policy alternatives. Loss estimates for scenario events are based on the HAZUS™ Advanced Engineering Building Module. Depending on model assumptions, losses range from

Work in progress — NEESacademy as a cyber-enabled learning experiences for K-16 earthquake engineering and science education

1.8 to

Stochastic slip-predictable model for earthquake occurrences

28.5 billion and <50 to 8,300 fatalities. We investigate proposals targeting vulnerable buildings for retrofit as compared to retrofitting all buildings in the inventory. Awareness raised by this research contributed to the formation of the Los Angeles Mayoral Seismic Safety Task Force, which developed policy proposals.

Simulation-based reliability assessment for structural engineers

NEESacademy is under development to support more effective organization, assessment, implementation, and dissemination of learning experiences related to earthquake science and engineering. One source of content is the education and outreach products developed by NEES researchers, but anyone can contribute resources. Using well documented instructional design approaches, a framework for defining and planning the content, assessment, and design-based implementation of learning experiences has been developed. This framework illustrates how a large array of existing individual learning activities can be grouped thematically to provide more comprehensive learning experiences for learners. NEESacademy is built on the HUBzero technology that provides users with tools to easily create richer content and reuse that same content for high impact learning experiences. Pilot programs are underway to engage K-16 educators in testing and developing content.