Themistocles S. Protopsaltis

Cervical spine alignment, sagittal deformity, and clinical implications

This paper is a narrative review of normal cervical alignment, methods for quantifying alignment, and how alignment is associated with cervical deformity, myelopathy, and adjacent-segment disease (ASD), with discussions of health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Popular methods currently used to quantify cervical alignment are discussed including cervical lordosis, sagittal vertical axis, and horizontal gaze with the chin-brow to vertical angle. Cervical deformity is examined in detail as deformities localized to the cervical spine affect, and are affected by, other parameters of the spine in preserving global sagittal alignment. An evolving trend is defining cervical sagittal alignment. Evidence from a few recent studies suggests correlations between radiographic parameters in the cervical spine and HRQOL. Analysis of the cervical regional alignment with respect to overall spinal pelvic alignment is critical. The article details mechanisms by which cervical kyphotic deformity potentially leads to ASD and discusses previous studies that suggest how postoperative sagittal malalignment may promote ASD. Further clinical studies are needed to explore the relationship of cervical malalignment and the development of ASD. Sagittal alignment of the cervical spine may play a substantial role in the development of cervical myelopathy as cervical deformity can lead to spinal cord compression and cord tension. Surgical correction of cervical myelopathy should always take into consideration cervical sagittal alignment, as decompression alone may not decrease cord tension induced by kyphosis. Awareness of the development of postlaminectomy kyphosis is critical as it relates to cervical myelopathy. The future direction of cervical deformity correction should include a comprehensive approach in assessing global cervicalpelvic relationships. Just as understanding pelvic incidence as it relates to lumbar lordosis was crucial in building our knowledge of thoracolumbar deformities, T-1 incidence and cervical sagittal balance can further our understanding of cervical deformities. Other important parameters that account for the cervical-pelvic relationship are surveyed in detail, and it is recognized that all such parameters need to be validated in studies that correlate HRQOL outcomes following cervical deformity correction.

Prospective multicenter assessment of perioperative and minimum 2-year postoperative complication rates associated with adult spinal deformity surgery

OBJECTIVE Although multiple reports have documented significant benefit from surgical treatment of adult spinal deformity (ASD), these procedures can have high complication rates. Previously reported complications rates associated with ASD surgery are limited by retrospective design, single-surgeon or single-center cohorts, lack of rigorous data on complications, and/or limited follow-up. Accurate definition of complications associated with ASD surgery is important and may serve as a resource for patient counseling and efforts to improve the safety of patient care. The authors conducted a study to prospectively assess the rates of complications associated with ASD surgery with a minimum 2-year follow-up based on a multicenter study design that incorporated standardized data-collection forms, on-site study coordinators, and regular auditing of data to help ensure complete and accurate reporting of complications. In addition, they report age stratification of complication rates and provide a general assessment of factors that may be associated with the occurrence of complications. METHODS As part of a prospective, multicenter ASD database, standardized forms were used to collect data on surgery-related complications. On-site coordinators and central auditing helped ensure complete capture of complication data. Inclusion criteria were age older than 18 years, ASD, and plan for operative treatment. Complications were classified as perioperative (within 6 weeks of surgery) or delayed (between 6 weeks after surgery and time of last follow-up), and as minor or major. The primary focus for analyses was on patients who reached a minimum follow-up of 2 years. RESULTS Of 346 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 291 (84%) had a minimum 2-year follow-up (mean 2.1 years); their mean age was 56.2 years. The vast majority (99%) had treatment including a posterior procedure, 25% had an anterior procedure, and 19% had a 3-column osteotomy. At least 1 revision was required in 82 patients (28.2%). A total of 270 perioperative complications (145 minor; 125 major) were reported, with 152 patients (52.2%) affected, and a total of 199 delayed complications (62 minor; 137 major) were reported, with 124 patients (42.6%) affected. Overall, 469 complications (207 minor; 262 major) were documented, with 203 patients (69.8%) affected. The most common complication categories included implant related, radiographic, neurological, operative, cardiopulmonary, and infection. Higher complication rates were associated with older age (p = 0.009), greater body mass index (p ≤ 0.031), increased comorbidities (p ≤ 0.007), previous spine fusion (p = 0.029), and 3-column osteotomies (p = 0.036). Cases in which 2-year follow-up was not achieved included 2 perioperative mortalities (pulmonary embolus and inferior vena cava injury). CONCLUSIONS This study provides an assessment of complications associated with ASD surgery based on a prospective, multicenter design and with a minimum 2-year follow-up. Although the overall complication rates were high, in interpreting these findings, it is important to recognize that not all complications are equally impactful. This study represents one of the most complete and detailed reports of perioperative and delayed complications associated with ASD surgery to date. These findings may prove useful for treatment planning, patient counseling, benchmarking of complication rates, and efforts to improve the safety and cost-effectiveness of patient care.

The T1 Pelvic Angle, a Novel Radiographic Measure of Global Sagittal Deformity, Accounts for Both Spinal Inclination and Pelvic Tilt and Correlates with Health-Related Quality of Life

BACKGROUND Adult spinal deformity is a prevalent cause of pain and disability. Established measures of sagittal spinopelvic alignment such as sagittal vertical axis and pelvic tilt can be modified by postural compensation, including pelvic retroversion, knee flexion, and the use of assistive devices for standing. We introduce the T1 pelvic angle, a novel measure of sagittal alignment that simultaneously accounts for both spinal inclination and pelvic retroversion. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship of the T1 pelvic angle and other established sagittal alignment measures and to correlate these parameters with health-related quality-of-life measures. METHODS This is a multicenter, prospective, cross-sectional analysis of consecutive patients with adult spinal deformity. Inclusion criteria were adult spinal deformity, an age of greater than eighteen years, and any of the following: scoliosis, a Cobb angle of ≥ 20°, sagittal vertical axis of ≥ 5 cm, thoracic kyphosis of ≥ 60°, and pelvic tilt of ≥ 25°. Clinical measures of disability included the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Scoliosis Research Society (SRS)-22, and Short Form-36 (SF-36) questionnaires. RESULTS Five hundred and fifty-nine consecutive patients with adult spinal deformity (mean age, 52.5 years) were enrolled. The T1 pelvic angle correlated with the sagittal vertical axis (r = 0.837), pelvic incidence minus lumbar lordosis (r = 0.889), and pelvic tilt (0.933). Categorizing the patients by increasing T1 pelvic angle (<10°, 10° to 20°, 21° to 30°, and > 30°) revealed a significant and progressive worsening in health-related quality of life (p < 0.001 for all). The T1 pelvic angle and sagittal vertical axis correlated with the ODI (0.435 and 0.455), SF-36 Physical Component Summary (-0.445 and -0.458), and SRS (-0.358 and -0.383) (p < 0.001 for all). Utilizing a linear regression analysis, a T1 pelvic angle of 20° corresponded to a severe disability (an ODI of >40), and the meaningful change in T1 pelvic angle corresponding to one minimal clinically important difference was 4.1° on the ODI. CONCLUSIONS The T1 pelvic angle correlates with health-related quality of life in patients with adult spinal deformity. The T1 pelvic angle is related to both pelvic tilt and sagittal vertical axis; however, unlike sagittal vertical axis, it does not vary on the basis of the extent of pelvic retroversion or patient support in standing. Since the T1 pelvic angle is an angular and not a linear measure, it does not require calibration of the radiograph. Thus, the T1 pelvic angle measures sagittal deformity independent of many postural compensatory mechanisms, and it can be useful as a preoperative planning tool, with a target T1 pelvic angle of < 14°. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Diagnostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Outcomes of Operative and Nonoperative Treatment for Adult Spinal Deformity: A Prospective, Multicenter, Propensity-Matched Cohort Assessment With Minimum 2-Year Follow-up

BACKGROUND High-quality studies that compare operative and nonoperative treatment for adult spinal deformity (ASD) are needed. OBJECTIVE To compare outcomes of operative and nonoperative treatment for ASD. METHODS This is a multicenter, prospective analysis of consecutive ASD patients opting for operative or nonoperative care. Inclusion criteria were age >18 years and ASD. Operative and nonoperative patients were propensity matched with the baseline Oswestry Disability Index, Scoliosis Research Society-22r, thoracolumbar/lumbar Cobb angle, pelvic incidence-to-lumbar lordosis mismatch (PI-LL), and leg pain score. Analyses were confined to patients with a minimum of 2 years of follow-up. RESULTS Two hundred eighty-six operative and 403 nonoperative patients met the criteria, with mean ages of 53 and 55 years, 2-year follow-up rates of 86% and 55%, and mean follow-up of 24.7 and 24.8 months, respectively. At baseline, operative patients had significantly worse health-related quality of life (HRQOL) based on all measures assessed (P < .001) and had worse deformity based on pelvic tilt, pelvic incidence-to-lumbar lordosis mismatch, and sagittal vertical axis (P ≤ .002). At the minimum 2-year follow-up, all HRQOL measures assessed significantly improved for operative patients (P < .001), but none improved significantly for nonoperative patients except for modest improvements in the Scoliosis Research Society-22r pain (P = .04) and satisfaction (P < .001) domains. On the basis of matched operative-nonoperative cohorts (97 in each group), operative patients had significantly better HRQOL at follow-up for all measures assessed (P < .001), except Short Form-36 mental component score (P = .06). At the minimum 2-year follow-up, 71.5% of operative patients had ≥1 complications. CONCLUSION Operative treatment for ASD can provide significant improvement of HRQOL at a minimum 2-year follow-up. In contrast, nonoperative treatment on average maintains presenting levels of pain and disability. ABBREVIATIONS ASD, adult spinal deformityHRQOL, health-related quality of lifeLL, lumbar lordosisMCID, minimal clinically important differenceNRS, numeric rating scaleODI, Oswestry Disability IndexPI, pelvic incidenceSF-36, Short Form-36SRS-22r, Scoliosis Research Society-22rSVA, sagittal vertical axis.

Complications and intercenter variability of three-column osteotomies for spinal deformity surgery: a retrospective review of 423 patients.

OBJECT Three-column resection osteotomies (3COs) are commonly performed for sagittal deformity but have high rates of reported complications. Authors of this study aimed to examine the incidence of and intercenter variability in major intraoperative complications (IOCs), major postoperative complications (POCs) up to 6 weeks postsurgery, and overall complications (that is, both IOCs and POCs). They also aimed to investigate the incidence of and intercenter variability in blood loss during 3CO procedures. METHODS The incidence of IOCs, POCs, and overall complications associated with 3COs were retrospectively determined for the study population and for each of 8 participating surgical centers. The incidence of major blood loss (MBL) over 4 L and the percentage of total blood volume lost were also determined for the study population and each surgical center. Complication rates and blood loss were compared between patients with one and those with two osteotomies, as well as between patients with one thoracic osteotomy (ThO) and those with one lumbar or sacral osteotomy (LSO). Risk factors for developing complications were determined. RESULTS Retrospective review of prospectively acquired data for 423 consecutive patients who had undergone 3CO at 8 surgical centers was performed. The incidence of major IOCs, POCs, and overall complications was 7%, 39%, and 42%, respectively, for the study population overall. The most common IOC was spinal cord deficit (2.6%) and the most common POC was unplanned return to the operating room (19.4%). Patients with two osteotomies had more POCs (56% vs 38%, p = 0.04) than the patients with one osteotomy. Those with ThO had more IOCs (16% vs 6%, p = 0.03), POCs (58% vs 34%, p < 0.01), and overall complications (67% vs 37%, p < 0.01) than the patients with LSO. There was significant variation in the incidence of IOCs, POCs, and overall complications among the 8 sites (p < 0.01). The incidence of MBL was 24% for the study population, which varied significantly between sites (p < 0.01). Patients with MBL had a higher risk of IOCs, POCs, and overall complications (OR 2.15, 1.76, and 2.01, respectively). The average percentage of total blood volume lost was 55% for the study population, which also varied among sites (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Given the complexity of 3COs for spinal deformity, it is important for spine surgeons to understand the risk factors and complication rates associated with these procedures. In this study, the overall incidence of major complications following 3CO procedures was 42%. Risks for developing complications included an older age (> 60 years), two osteotomies, ThO, and MBL.

T1 pelvic angle (TPA) effectively evaluates sagittal deformity and assesses radiographical surgical outcomes longitudinally.

Study Design. Retrospective review of a multicenter database of consecutive patients undergoing 3-column osteotomy for treatment of adult spinal deformity (ASD). Objective. To rigorously develop a T1 pelvic angle (TPA) categorization paradigm and use it to assess the surgical management of patients with ASD. Summary of Background Data. TPA, the angle between the hips-T1 line and hips-S1 endplate line, is a novel spinopelvic parameter that assesses the combined effect of a loss of lordosis on trunk inclination and pelvic retroversion. Methods. A prospective, multicenter database of consecutive patients with ASD was queried to identify the severe deformity threshold and meaningful change values for TPA by correlation with Oswestry Disability Index. A separate multicenter, consecutive, retrospective database of patients with ASD treated with single lumbar 3-column osteotomy was then analyzed at baseline, 3-month, and 1-year follow-up. Subjects were classified into well-aligned or poorly aligned groups at 3 months on the basis of TPA. Patients “deteriorated” if they lost more than 1 meaningful change in TPA between 3 months and 1 year and had TPA more than deformity threshold at 1 year. Results. The severe deformity threshold for TPA was 20° (Oswestry Disability Index > 40) and the meaningful change was 4.1° (Oswestry Disability Index change = 15). Review of the 3-column osteotomy database identified 179 patients with preoperative severe deformity; 63 were well-aligned (TPA < 15.9°) and 73 were poorly aligned (TPA > 20°) at 3-month follow-up. This newly developed TPA categorization mechanism grouped patients in a manner comparable with the Scoliosis Research Society-Schwab Classification. Subjects who were well-aligned at 3 months had less severe baseline deformity, but received more correction, than poorly aligned subjects. Four well-aligned patients and 13 poorly aligned patients deteriorated between 3 months and 1 year after surgery. Conclusion. TPA accounts for sagittal vertical axis and pelvic tilt and shows great promise as a classification tool. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated undercorrection among patients with more severe preoperative deformity. We propose a surgical target of 10° for TPA. Level of Evidence: 4

How the neck affects the back: changes in regional cervical sagittal alignment correlate to HRQOL improvement in adult thoracolumbar deformity patients at 2-year follow-up

OBJECT Regional cervical sagittal alignment (C2-7 sagittal vertical axis [SVA]) has been shown to correlate with health-related quality of life (HRQOL). The study objective was to examine the relationship between cervical and thoracolumbar alignment parameters with HRQOL among patients with operative and nonoperative adult thoracolumbar deformity. METHODS This is a multicenter prospective data collection of consecutive patients with adult thoracolumbar spinal deformity. Clinical measures of disability included the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Scoliosis Research Society-22 Patient Questionnaire (SRS-22), and 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). Cervical radiographic parameters were correlated with global sagittal parameters within the nonoperative and operative cohorts. A partial correlation analysis was performed controlling for C-7 SVA. The operative group was subanalyzed by the magnitude of global deformity (C-7 SVA ≥ 5 cm vs < 5 cm). RESULTS A total of 318 patients were included (186 operative and 132 nonoperative). The mean age was 55.4 ± 14.9 years. Operative patients had significantly worse baseline HRQOL and significantly larger C-7 SVA, pelvic tilt (PT), mismatch between pelvic incidence and lumbar lordosis (PI-LL), and C2-7 SVA. The operative patients with baseline C-7 SVA ≥ 5 cm had significantly larger C2-7 lordosis (CL), C2-7 SVA, C-7 SVA, PI-LL, and PT than patients with a normal C-7 SVA. For all patients, baseline C2-7 SVA and CL significantly correlated with baseline ODI, Physical Component Summary (PCS), SRS Activity domain, and SRS Appearance domain. Baseline C2-7 SVA also correlated with SRS Pain and SRS Total. For the operative patients with baseline C-7 SVA ≥ 5 cm, the 2-year C2-7 SVA significantly correlated with 2-year Mental Component Summary, SRS Mental, SRS Satisfaction, and decreases in ODI. Decreases in C2-7 SVA at 2 years significantly correlated with lower ODI at 2 years. Using partial correlations while controlling for C-7 SVA, the C2-7 SVA correlated significantly with baseline ODI (r = 0.211, p = 0.002), PCS (r = -0.178, p = 0.009), and SRS Activity (r = -0.145, p = 0.034) for the entire cohort. In the subset of operative patients with larger thoracolumbar deformities, the change in C2-7 SVA correlated with change in ODI (r = -0.311, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS Changes in cervical lordosis correlate to HRQOL improvements in thoracolumbar deformity patients at 2-year follow-up. Regional cervical sagittal parameters such as CL and C2-7 SVA are correlated with clinical measures of regional disability and health status in patients with adult thoracolumbar scoliosis. This effect may be direct or a reciprocal effect of the underlying global deformities on regional cervical alignment. However, the partial correlation analysis, controlling for the magnitude of the thoracolumbar deformity, suggests that there is a direct effect of cervical alignment on health measures. Improvements in regional cervical alignment postoperatively correlated positively with improved HRQOL.

Comparison of best versus worst clinical outcomes for adult spinal deformity surgery: a retrospective review of a prospectively collected, multicenter database with 2-year follow-up

OBJECT Although recent studies suggest that average clinical outcomes are improved following surgery for selected adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients, these outcomes span a broad range. Few studies have specifically addressed factors that may predict favorable clinical outcomes. The objective of this study was to compare patients with ASD with best versus worst clinical outcomes following surgical treatment to identify distinguishing factors that may prove useful for patient counseling and optimization of clinical outcomes. METHODS This is a retrospective review of a prospectively collected, multicenter, database of consecutively enrolled patients with ASD who were treated operatively. Inclusion criteria were age > 18 years and ASD. For patients with a minimum of 2-year follow-up, those with best versus worst outcomes were compared separately based on Scoliosis Research Society-22 (SRS-22) and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) scores. Only patients with a baseline SRS-22 ≤ 3.5 or ODI ≥ 30 were included to minimize ceiling/floor effects. Best and worst outcomes were defined for SRS-22 (≥ 4.5 and ≤ 2.5, respectively) and ODI (≤ 15 and ≥ 50, respectively). RESULTS Of 257 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 227 (88%) had complete baseline and 2-year follow-up SRS-22 and ODI outcomes scores and radiographic imaging and were analyzed in the present study. Of these 227 patients, 187 had baseline SRS-22 scores ≤ 3.5, and 162 had baseline ODI scores ≥ 30. Forthe SRS-22, best and worst outcomes criteria were met at follow-up for 25 and 27 patients, respectively. For the ODI, best and worst outcomes criteria were met at follow-up for 43 and 51 patients, respectively. With respect to the SRS-22, compared with best outcome patients, those with worst outcomes had higher baseline SRS-22 scores (p < 0.0001), higher prevalence of baseline depression (p < 0.001), more comorbidities (p = 0.012), greater prevalence of prior surgery (p = 0.007), a higher complication rate (p = 0.012), and worse baseline deformity (sagittal vertical axis [SVA], p = 0.045; pelvic incidence [PI] and lumbar lordosis [LL] mismatch, p = 0.034). The best-fit multivariate model for SRS-22 included baseline SRS-22 (p = 0.033), baseline depression (p = 0.012), and complications (p = 0.030). With respect to the ODI, compared with best outcome patients, those with worst outcomes had greater baseline ODI scores (p < 0.001), greater baseline body mass index (BMI; p = 0.002), higher prevalence of baseline depression (p < 0.028), greater baseline SVA (p = 0.016), a higher complication rate (p = 0.02), and greater 2-year SVA (p < 0.001) and PI-LL mismatch (p = 0.042). The best-fit multivariate model for ODI included baseline ODI score (p < 0.001), 2-year SVA (p = 0.014) and baseline BMI (p = 0.037). Age did not distinguish best versus worst outcomes for SRS-22 or ODI (p > 0.1). CONCLUSIONS Few studies have specifically addressed factors that distinguish between the best versus worst clinical outcomes for ASD surgery. In this study, baseline and perioperative factors distinguishing between the best and worst outcomes for ASD surgery included several patient factors (baseline depression, BMI, comorbidities, and disability), as well as residual deformity (SVA), and occurrence of complications. These findings suggest factors that may warrant greater awareness among clinicians to achieve optimal surgical outcomes for patients with ASD.

Prevalence and type of cervical deformity among 470 adults with thoracolumbar deformity

Study Design. Multicenter, prospective, consecutive case series. Objective. To assess prevalence and type of cervical deformity among adults with thoracolumbar (TL) deformity and to assess for associations between cervical deformities and different types of TL deformities. Summary of Background Data. Cervical deformity can present concomitantly with TL deformity and have implications for the management of TL deformity. Methods. Multicenter, prospective, consecutive series of adult (age >18 yr) patients with TL deformity. Parameters included pelvic tilt (PT), pelvic incidence (PI), lumbar lordosis (LL), C2–C7 sagittal vertical axis (C2–C7SVA), C7–S1SVA, and C2–C7 lordosis. Cervical deformity was defined as cervical lordosis more than 0° (cervical kyphosis [CK]) or C2–C7SVA more than 4 cm (cervical positive sagittal malalignment [CPSM]). Patients were stratified by the Scoliosis Research Society-Schwab classification of adult TL deformity, including curve type (N = sagittal deformity, T = thoracic scoliosis, L = lumbar scoliosis, and D = T + L scoliosis) and modifier grades: PT (0: <20°, +: 20°–30°, ++: >30°), C7–S1SVA (0: <4 cm, +: 4–9.5 cm, ++: >9.5 cm), and PI-LL mismatch (0: <10°, +: 10–20°, ++: >20°). Results. A total of 470 patients met criteria (mean age = 52 yr). Mean cervical lordosis and C2–C7SVA were −8° and 3.2 cm, respectively. CK and CPSM prevalence were 31% and 29%, respectively, and prevalence of CK and/or CPSM was 53%. CK prevalence differed by curve type (N = 15%, L = 27%, D = 37%, T = 49%; P < 0.001); CPSM prevalence did not differ by curve type (P = 0.19). Higher PT grades had lower CK prevalence (0 = 40%, += 27%, ++= 15%; P < 0.001) but greater CPSM prevalence (0 = 23%, += 28%, ++= 45%; P = 0.001). Similarly, higher SVA grades had lower CK prevalence (0 = 40%, += 23%, ++= 11%; P < 0.001) but greater CPSM prevalence (0 = 24%, += 24%, ++= 48%; P < 0.001). Higher PI-LL grades had lower CK prevalence (0 = 35%, += 31%, ++= 22%; P = 0.034) but no CPSM association (P = 0.46). Conclusion. Cervical deformity is highly prevalent (53%) in adult TL deformity. C7–S1SVA, PT, and PI-LL modifiers are associated with cervical deformity prevalence. These findings suggest that TL deformity evaluation should include assessment for concomitant cervical deformity and that further study is warranted to define their potential clinical impact. Level of Evidence: 3

Development of Validated Computer-based Preoperative Predictive Model for Proximal Junction Failure (PJF) or Clinically Significant PJK With 86% Accuracy Based on 510 ASD Patients With 2-year Follow-up.

Study Design. A retrospective review of large, multicenter adult spinal deformity (ASD) database. Objective. The aim of this study was to build a model based on baseline demographic, radiographic, and surgical factors that can predict clinically significant proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) and proximal junctional failure (PJF). Summary of Background Data. PJF and PJK are significant complications and it remains unclear what are the specific drivers behind the development of either. There exists no predictive model that could potentially aid in the clinical decision making for adult patients undergoing deformity correction. Methods. Inclusion criteria: age ≥18 years, ASD, at least four levels fused. Variables included in the model were demographics, primary/revision, use of three-column osteotomy, upper-most instrumented vertebra (UIV)/lower-most instrumented vertebra (LIV) levels and UIV implant type (screw, hooks), number of levels fused, and baseline sagittal radiographs [pelvic tilt (PT), pelvic incidence and lumbar lordosis (PI-LL), thoracic kyphosis (TK), and sagittal vertical axis (SVA)]. PJK was defined as an increase from baseline of proximal junctional angle ≥20° with concomitant deterioration of at least one SRS-Schwab sagittal modifier grade from 6 weeks postop. PJF was defined as requiring revision for PJK. An ensemble of decision trees were constructed using the C5.0 algorithm with five different bootstrapped models, and internally validated via a 70 : 30 data split for training and testing. Accuracy and the area under a receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated. Results. Five hundred ten patients were included, with 357 for model training and 153 as testing targets (PJF: 37, PJK: 102). The overall model accuracy was 86.3% with an AUC of 0.89 indicating a good model fit. The seven strongest (importance ≥0.95) predictors were age, LIV, pre-operative SVA, UIV implant type, UIV, pre-operative PT, and pre-operative PI-LL. Conclusion. A successful model (86% accuracy, 0.89 AUC) was built predicting either PJF or clinically significant PJK. This model can set the groundwork for preop point of care decision making, risk stratification, and need for prophylactic strategies for patients undergoing ASD surgery. Level of Evidence: 3