Theo Geisel

The scaling laws of human travel

The dynamic spatial redistribution of individuals is a key driving force of various spatiotemporal phenomena on geographical scales. It can synchronize populations of interacting species, stabilize them, and diversify gene pools. Human travel, for example, is responsible for the geographical spread of human infectious disease. In the light of increasing international trade, intensified human mobility and the imminent threat of an influenza A epidemic, the knowledge of dynamical and statistical properties of human travel is of fundamental importance. Despite its crucial role, a quantitative assessment of these properties on geographical scales remains elusive, and the assumption that humans disperse diffusively still prevails in models. Here we report on a solid and quantitative assessment of human travelling statistics by analysing the circulation of bank notes in the United States. Using a comprehensive data set of over a million individual displacements, we find that dispersal is anomalous in two ways. First, the distribution of travelling distances decays as a power law, indicating that trajectories of bank notes are reminiscent of scale-free random walks known as Lévy flights. Second, the probability of remaining in a small, spatially confined region for a time T is dominated by algebraically long tails that attenuate the superdiffusive spread. We show that human travelling behaviour can be described mathematically on many spatiotemporal scales by a two-parameter continuous-time random walk model to a surprising accuracy, and conclude that human travel on geographical scales is an ambivalent and effectively superdiffusive process.

Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world

The rapid worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. This model combines a stochastic local infection dynamics among individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spread of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed, and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibiting the global spread of epidemics.

Advancing the Boundaries of High-Connectivity Network Simulation with Distributed Computing

The availability of efficient and reliable simulation tools is one of the mission-critical technologies in the fast-moving field of computational neuroscience. Research indicates that higher brain functions emerge from large and complex cortical networks and their interactions. The large number of elements (neurons) combined with the high connectivity (synapses) of the biological network and the specific type of interactions impose severe constraints on the explorable system size that previously have been hard to overcome. Here we present a collection of new techniques combined to a coherent simulation tool removing the fundamental obstacle in the computational study of biological neural networks: the enormous number of synaptic contacts per neuron. Distributing an individual simulation over multiple computers enables the investigation of networks orders of magnitude larger than previously possible. The software scales excellently on a wide range of tested hardware, so it can be used in an interactive and iterative fashion for the development of ideas, and results can be produced quickly even for very large networks. In con-trast to earlier approaches, a wide class of neuron models and synaptic dynamics can be represented.

Spike avalanches in vivo suggest a driven, slightly subcritical brain state

In self-organized critical (SOC) systems avalanche size distributions follow power-laws. Power-laws have also been observed for neural activity, and so it has been proposed that SOC underlies brain organization as well. Surprisingly, for spiking activity in vivo, evidence for SOC is still lacking. Therefore, we analyzed highly parallel spike recordings from awake rats and monkeys, anesthetized cats, and also local field potentials from humans. We compared these to spiking activity from two established critical models: the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld model, and a stochastic branching model. We found fundamental differences between the neural and the model activity. These differences could be overcome for both models through a combination of three modifications: (1) subsampling, (2) increasing the input to the model (this way eliminating the separation of time scales, which is fundamental to SOC and its avalanche definition), and (3) making the model slightly sub-critical. The match between the neural activity and the modified models held not only for the classical avalanche size distributions and estimated branching parameters, but also for two novel measures (mean avalanche size, and frequency of single spikes), and for the dependence of all these measures on the temporal bin size. Our results suggest that neural activity in vivo shows a mélange of avalanches, and not temporally separated ones, and that their global activity propagation can be approximated by the principle that one spike on average triggers a little less than one spike in the next step. This implies that neural activity does not reflect a SOC state but a slightly sub-critical regime without a separation of time scales. Potential advantages of this regime may be faster information processing, and a safety margin from super-criticality, which has been linked to epilepsy.

Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases

We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bidirectional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of the model on regular and complex metapopulation network topologies and show that significant dynamical differences exist to ordinary reaction-diffusion and effective force of infection models. On a lattice we calculate an expression for the velocity of the propagating epidemic front and find that, in contrast to the diffusive systems, our model predicts a saturation of the velocity with an increasing traveling rate. Furthermore, we show that a fully stochastic system exhibits a novel threshold for the attack ratio of an outbreak that is absent in diffusion and force of infection models. These insights not only capture natural features of human mobility relevant for the geographical epidemic spread, they may serve as a starting point for modeling important dynamical processes in human and animal epidemiology, population ecology, biology, and evolution.

Model-free reconstruction of excitatory neuronal connectivity from calcium imaging signals.

A systematic assessment of global neural network connectivity through direct electrophysiological assays has remained technically infeasible, even in simpler systems like dissociated neuronal cultures. We introduce an improved algorithmic approach based on Transfer Entropy to reconstruct structural connectivity from network activity monitored through calcium imaging. We focus in this study on the inference of excitatory synaptic links. Based on information theory, our method requires no prior assumptions on the statistics of neuronal firing and neuronal connections. The performance of our algorithm is benchmarked on surrogate time series of calcium fluorescence generated by the simulated dynamics of a network with known ground-truth topology. We find that the functional network topology revealed by Transfer Entropy depends qualitatively on the time-dependent dynamic state of the network (bursting or non-bursting). Thus by conditioning with respect to the global mean activity, we improve the performance of our method. This allows us to focus the analysis to specific dynamical regimes of the network in which the inferred functional connectivity is shaped by monosynaptic excitatory connections, rather than by collective synchrony. Our method can discriminate between actual causal influences between neurons and spurious non-causal correlations due to light scattering artifacts, which inherently affect the quality of fluorescence imaging. Compared to other reconstruction strategies such as cross-correlation or Granger Causality methods, our method based on improved Transfer Entropy is remarkably more accurate. In particular, it provides a good estimation of the excitatory network clustering coefficient, allowing for discrimination between weakly and strongly clustered topologies. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our method to analyses of real recordings of in vitro disinhibited cortical cultures where we suggest that excitatory connections are characterized by an elevated level of clustering compared to a random graph (although not extreme) and can be markedly non-local.

Spontaneous pinwheel annihilation during visual development

Neurons in the visual cortex respond preferentially to edge-like stimuli of a particular orientation. It is a long-standing hypothesis that orientation selectivity arises during development through the activity-dependent refinement of cortical circuitry. Unambiguous evidence for such a process has, however, remained elusive. Here we argue that, if orientation preferences arise through activity-dependent refinement of initially unselective patterns of synaptic connections, this process should leave distinct signatures in the emerging spatial pattern of preferred orientations. Preferred orientations typically change smoothly and progressively across the cortex. This smooth progression is disrupted at the centres of so-called pinwheels,, where neurons exhibiting the whole range of orientation preferences are located in close vicinity. Assuming that orientation selectivity develops through a set of rules that we do not specify, we demonstrate mathematically that the spatial density of pinwheels is rigidly constrained by basic symmetry principles. In particular, the spatial density of pinwheels, which emerge when orientation selectivity is first established, is larger than a model-independent minimal value. As a consequence, lower densities, if observed in adult animals, are predicted to develop through the motion and annihilation of pinwheel pairs.

Dynamic effective connectivity of inter-areal brain circuits.

Anatomic connections between brain areas affect information flow between neuronal circuits and the synchronization of neuronal activity. However, such structural connectivity does not coincide with effective connectivity (or, more precisely, causal connectivity), related to the elusive question “Which areas cause the present activity of which others?”. Effective connectivity is directed and depends flexibly on contexts and tasks. Here we show that dynamic effective connectivity can emerge from transitions in the collective organization of coherent neural activity. Integrating simulation and semi-analytic approaches, we study mesoscale network motifs of interacting cortical areas, modeled as large random networks of spiking neurons or as simple rate units. Through a causal analysis of time-series of model neural activity, we show that different dynamical states generated by a same structural connectivity motif correspond to distinct effective connectivity motifs. Such effective motifs can display a dominant directionality, due to spontaneous symmetry breaking and effective entrainment between local brain rhythms, although all connections in the considered structural motifs are reciprocal. We show then that transitions between effective connectivity configurations (like, for instance, reversal in the direction of inter-areal interactions) can be triggered reliably by brief perturbation inputs, properly timed with respect to an ongoing local oscillation, without the need for plastic synaptic changes. Finally, we analyze how the information encoded in spiking patterns of a local neuronal population is propagated across a fixed structural connectivity motif, demonstrating that changes in the active effective connectivity regulate both the efficiency and the directionality of information transfer. Previous studies stressed the role played by coherent oscillations in establishing efficient communication between distant areas. Going beyond these early proposals, we advance here that dynamic interactions between brain rhythms provide as well the basis for the self-organized control of this “communication-through-coherence”, making thus possible a fast “on-demand” reconfiguration of global information routing modalities.

Coexistence of Regular and Irregular Dynamics in Complex Networks of Pulse-Coupled Oscillators

For general networks of pulse-coupled oscillators, including regular, random, and more complex networks, we develop an exact stability analysis of synchronous states. As opposed to conventional stability analysis, here stability is determined by a multitude of linear operators. We treat this multioperator problem exactly and show that for inhibitory interactions the synchronous state is stable, independent of the parameters and the network connectivity. In randomly connected networks with strong interactions this synchronous state, displaying regular dynamics, coexists with a balanced state exhibiting irregular dynamics. External signals may switch the network between qualitatively distinct states.

Prevalence of Unstable Attractors in Networks of Pulse-Coupled Oscillators

We present and analyze the first example of a dynamical system that naturally exhibits attracting periodic orbits that are unstable. These unstable attractors occur in networks of pulse-coupled oscillators, and become prevalent with increasing network size for a wide range of parameters. They are enclosed by basins of attraction of other attractors but are remote from their own basin volume such that arbitrarily small noise leads to a switching among attractors.