Theodore Panagiotidis

Market capitalization and efficiency. Does it matter? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is tested in the case of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) after the introduction of the euro for three different indices. The underlying assumption is that stock prices would be more transparent; their performance easier to compare; the exchange rate risk eliminated and as a result we expect the new currency to strengthen the argument in favour of the EMH. The FTSE/ASE20, which consists of ‘high capitalization’ companies, the FTSE/ASE Mid 40, which consists of medium sized companies and the FTSE/ASE Small Cap, which covers the next 80 companies, are used. Five statistical tests are employed to test the residuals of the random walk model: the BDS, McLeod–Li, Engle LM, Tsay and Bicovariance test. Bootstrap as well as asymptotic values of these tests are estimated. The random walk hypothesis is rejected in all three cases and alternative GARCH models are estimated.

Causal Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates

This article investigates the nature of the causal linkage between stock markets and foreign exchange markets in Australia, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, and UK from January 1992 to December 2005. Recently developed cointegration tests are employed and no evidence of a long-run relationship between the variables is found. Three variations of the Granger causality test are carried out and causality from exchange rates to stock prices is found for Canada, Switzerland, and UK; weak causality in the other direction is found only for Switzerland. The Hiemstra–Jones test is used to examine possible non-linear causality and the results indicate causality from stock prices to exchange rates in Japan and weak causality of the reverse direction in Switzerland.

The sustainability of India's current account

This study conducts an investigation into the sustainability of the Indian current account using data for 1950 onwards. A necessary condition for current account sustainability is that exports and imports are cointegrated. After testing for unit roots that allow for a structural break, we employ parametric tests for cointegration: based on Johansen (1995) and Saikkonen and Lütkepohl (2000a, b, c) as well as the nonparametric procedure proposed by Breitung (2002) and Breitung and Taylor (2003) that does not assume linearity. By employing these procedures recursively, two distinct regimes are identified characterized by whether or not imports and exports are cointegrated. The regime of noncointegration runs until the late 1990s and the second regime of cointegration is present after that. This latter regime coincides with the liberalization of the Indian economy.

ON THE STATIONARITY OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

In this paper, we test for the stationarity of EU current account deficits. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (i) the identification of which panel members are stationary, and (ii) the presence of cross-sectional dependence. For this purpose, we employ an AR-based bootstrap approach to the Hadri (2000) test. While there is only mixed evidence that current account stationarity applies when examining individual countries, this does not appear to be case when considering panels comprising both EU and non-EU members.

Calendar Anomalies in the Ghana Stock Exchange

Both the day of the week and the month of the year effects are examined for the Ghana Stock Exchange. The latter is an interesting case because (a) it operates for only 3 days per week during the sample period and (b) the increased focus that African stock markets have received lately from both academics and practitioners. Non-linear models from the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family are used in a rolling framework to investigate the role of asymmetries and assess the effects of policy and institutional changes. Contrary to a January return pattern in most markets, an April effect is found for Ghana. The latter disappears in a rolling framework. The day of the week effect is modelled with an asymmetric GARCH model as the benchmark linear paradigm was rejected. Fridays return was found to be the most significant but this seasonality disappears when a rolling window is employed (time-varying asymmetric GARCH).

On the relationship between oil and gold before and after financial crisis: Linear, nonlinear and time-varying causality testing

Abstract We examine the causal relationship between crude oil and gold spot prices before and after the recent financial crisis. In the pre-crisis period, causality is linear and unidirectional, running from oil to gold. In the post-crisis period, a bidirectional nonlinear causality relationship emerges. Volatility spillover transpires as the source of nonlinearity during this period. The time path of the causal linkages both for the returns and the levels (cointegration) was assessed via dynamic bootstrap causality analysis. We find that the causal linkage from gold to oil is time dependent and that the non-Granger causality null hypothesis rejection rate increased considerably in the post-financial crisis period. The probability of gold Granger causing oil in the short-run increases by more than 30% during the recent financial and euro crisis.

Non-Linearity in the Canadian and US Labour Markets: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence from A Battery of Tests

The non-linearity of macroeconomic processes is becoming an increasingly important issue both at theoretical and empirical level. This trend holds for labour market variables as well. Reallocation theory of unemployment relies on non-linearities. At the same time there is mounting empirical evidence of business cycles asymmetries. Thus the assumption of linearity /non-linearity becomes crucial for the corroboration of labour market theories. This paper turns on the microscope on the assumption of linearity and investigates the presence of asymmetries on aggregate and disaggregate labour market variables. The assumption of linearity is tested using five statistical tests for the US and Canadian unemployment rates, growth rates of the employment sectoral shares of construction, finance, manufacturing and trade sectors. An AR(p) model was used to remove any linear structure from the series. Evidence of non-linearity is found for the sectoral shares with all five statistical tests in the US case but not in the aggregate level. The results for Canada are not clear-cut. Evidence of unspecified non-linearity is found in the unemployment rate and in the sectoral shares. Overall important asymmetries are found in disaggregated labour market variables in the univariate setting. The linearity hypothesis was also examined in a multivariate framework. Evidence is provided that important asymmetries exist and a linear VAR cannot capture the dynamics of employment reallocation.

Testing for non-linearity in labour markets: the case of Germany and the UK

Abstract The assumption of linearity is tested using five statistical tests for the German and the UK unemployment rate and for employment sectoral shares growth rates from the two countries. An AR( p ) model was used to remove any linear structure from the series. Evidence in favour of non-linearity was found in the German labour market but this was not the case in the UK where in most cases the assumption of linearity was accepted. The evidence illustrates the different behaviour of the labour markets in the UK and Germany. The policy maker needs to take into account the asymmetries that exist in the growth rates of employment sectoral shares when employment forecasts are generated and policies are decided.

Financial Development and Economic Activity in Advanced and Developing Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Cointegration

This study considers the effects of financial development on output in a panel cointegration framework, focusing on the implications of trade and financial openness. Our analysis indicates that after controlling for cross-sectional dependence, the typical relationship between finance and output does not hold in the long run. This relationship, however, is re-established once we account for economic openness. While trade openness emerges as more important for developing countries, financial openness is more important for advanced economies. In the long run, causality runs from financial development to output in the advanced economies, while in developing economies causality is bidirectional. There is no short-run causality between financial development and output, however.

Why a diversified portfolio should include African assets

We employ parametric and nonparametric cointegration approaches to investigate the extent of integration between African stock markets and the rest of the world. Long-run correlation estimates imply very low association between these two. The two distinct cointegration approaches confirm the latter through recursive estimation. The implication is that global markets have little impact on African stock markets. However, including African assets in a mean-variance portfolio would be beneficial to international investors.