Theodoros Rokkas

Techno-economic Evaluation of FTTC/VDSL and FTTH Roll-Out Scenarios: Discounted Cash Flows and Real Option Valuation

Due to the increasing demand in data rates telecom operators are faced with the question of when to upgrade their access network infrastructure toward fiber-to-the-home (FTTH). In this paper a techno-economic study of fiber-to-the-cabinet/very high bit rate digital subscriber line (FTTC/VDSL) and FTTH deployments is performed. The economics and risks associated with the incumbents decision to invest in dense urban and urban areas are analyzed using both discount cash flow (DCF) analysis and real options analysis (ROA). The results revealed that in the case of investment subsidization, the option value to expand in a later phase can significantly improve the financial metrics of the business cases. The analysis made is based on the ECOSYS techno-economic methodology and tool.

Economics of Time and Wavelength Domain Multiplexed Passive Optical Networks

Passive optical networks (PONs) are being widely considered as a means to implement fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and deliver broadband access to business and home users. However, technical and consequently regulatory and economic complexities arise in light of their deployment. In this paper, an evaluation of the business prospects of time division multiplexed (TDM) and wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) PON architectures for FTTH deployments under different rollout conditions is performed, based on the ECOSYS techno-economic methodology and tool. The importance of various cost components (fiber installation, optoelectronic components, etc.) is discussed. Using sensitivity analysis, the effect of various parameters such as duct availability, cost of civil works, etc. on the prospects of the investment are investigated. These results reveal several important techno-economic aspects that should be considered by telecom operators, regulators, and policy makers towards a successful FTTH deployment strategy.

Risks associated with next generation access networks investment scenarios

The deployment of next generation access networks (NGAs) is investigated from technical, regulatory and investment perspectives. A brief review of the possible network architectures and deployment scenarios of NGAs is provided. Risk calculations of these NGA scenarios are performed based on a fully detailed techno-economic model. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the European Commissions Recommendation on regulated access to NGAs, aiming to tackle the regulatory trade-off between encouraging investments and promoting competition, is discussed.

On the economics of fixed‐mobile convergence

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show that fixed‐mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered much interest in the telecommunications industry lately. Integrated operators (who own both fixed and mobile networks), are keen to exploit FMC benefits in order to save costs and generate new revenues. This paper aims to analyze the effects of converged network and service environment on the business of existing telecommunication operators.Design/methodology/approach – After an introduction to the regulatory, market, and technology related issues of convergence, the authors focus on analyzing the role of FMC technologies and services in their businesses of an integrated operator with existing fixed and mobile operations in a large Western European country.Findings – Results reveal that an integrated operator can benefit from cost savings, customer retention and prevent revenue erosion by migrating to FMC.Originality/value – This paper examines the effects of fixed‐mobile convergence to an integrated operator.

Cost Analysis of WDM and TDM Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) Networks: A System-of-Systems Approach

A system-of-systems (SoS) approach for wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) and time-division multiplexing (TDM) fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) telecommunication networks is presented. Cost evolution curves for individual systems as well for whole FTTH WDM and TDM networks are presented. The analysis can be exploited for a fast and accurate analysis of FTTH deployment costs in dense urban, urban, and suburban areas from the technoeconomic point of view, which is of paramount importance for telecom operators, equipment vendors, regulators, and policy makers. The impact of delaying the deployments or adopting different rollout strategies is also investigated and presented. The SoS emergent behavior is further revealed using exploratory modeling. The results reveal that in all cases, the WDM solution is more expensive than TDM. The total cost for suburban areas is almost six times higher than in dense urban areas and four times than urban areas.

Assessment of socio-techno-economic factors affecting the market adoption and evolution of 5G networks

Fuzzy AHP is used to prioritize the factors that will affect 5G market adoption.Experts from 5G-PPP CHARISMA project participated in the roadmapping.Performance, followed by Business and Acceptance, is the most crucial factor.Experts seem more concerned about low latency in view of the new applications.Policy makers should focus in two directions: investors and users. 5G networks are rapidly becoming the means to accommodate the complex demands of vertical sectors. The European project CHARISMA is aiming to develop a hierarchical, distributed-intelligence 5G architecture, offering low latency, security, and open access as features intrinsic to its design. Finding its place in such a complex landscape consisting of heterogeneous technologies and devices, requires the designers of the CHARISMA and other similar 5G architectures, as well as other related market actors to take into account the multiple technical, economic and social aspects that will affect the deployment and the rate of adoption of 5G networks by the general public. In this paper, a roadmapping activity identifying the key technological and socio-economic issues is performed, so as to help ensure a smooth transition from the legacy to future 5G networks. Based on the fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, a survey of pairwise comparisons has been conducted within the CHARISMA project by 5G technology and deployment experts, with several critical aspects identified and prioritized. The conclusions drawn are expected to be a valuable tool for decision and policy makers as well as for stakeholders.

Fixed Mobile Convergence for an Integrated Operator: A Techno-Economic Study

The last years as the traffic and revenues are moving from old PSTN networks and services to new broadband and mobile all IP networks telecom operators are facing major challenges. In order to reduce their losses telecom operators see the fixed mobile convergence (FMC) as the phenomenon capable of shaking the telecom market. In FMC case telecom services are provided to the customer independent of the access technique. Convergence will appear at different levels such as user terminal, backbone network technology, tariffs and even at business or commercial levels. In this paper the integrated operator case, one with both mobile and fixed network, is investigated through a tecno-economic point of view. The study is focused on a convergent architecture based on IMS. In order to draw conclusions market forecasts, OPEX and CAPEX estimations and revenue forecasts are combined.

Free Space Optical Technology as an alternative Last-Mile Solution: A Techno-Economic Analysis

In this paper, a techno-economic evaluation of the business prospects of Free Space Optical (KSO) technology as an alternative last mile solution is carried out and compared to Fiber-to-the-Home/Office (FTTH) and Fiber-to-the-Cabinet (FFTC). The analysis is based on the results from the TONIC tool which takes into account network topology, area characteristics, service demand and price evolution forecasting and calculates key economic figures-of-merits. The results reveal that FSO technology could provide a viable alternative in cases where the existing duct availability is limited and scenarios with either FTTH or FFTC have negative or less favourable business prospects.

Business Prospects of Wide-Scale Deployment of Free Space Optical Technology as a Last-Mile Solution: A Techno-Economic Analysis

In this paper, a techno-economic evaluation of the business prospects of a wide scale deployment of Free Space Optical (FSO) technology as a last mile solution is carried out. The evaluation is based on the TONIC tool which takes into account network topology, area characteristics, service demand and price evolution forecasting and calculates key economic figures-of-merits. It is shown that FSO technology could provide a viable alternative in situations where the duct availability is limited and Fiber-to-the-Home/Office or Fiber- to-the-Cabinet scenarios have negative or less favorable business prospects.

Fixed-Mobile Convergence: An Integrated Operator Case Study

In recent years, fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) has gathered much interest in the telecommunications industry. FMC is expected to offer benefits for network and service operators as well as end-users. Integrated operators (who own both fixed and mobile networks), are keen to exploit these benefits in order to save costs and generate new revenues. However, such operators are also faced with the challenge of identifying an appropriate roadmap for FMC migration in order to prevent substitution effects or conflict of interest among their own fixed and network operations. In this paper, we present results and analysis of an FMC migration case study for an integrated operator in a Western European market. The additional benefits achieved by the operator are quantified, with suggestions for migration strategies. Results of the study show that an integrated operator can benefit from cost savings, customer retention and prevent revenue erosion by migrating to FMC.