Thibaut Caley

Orbital Asian summer monsoon dynamics revealed using an isotope-enabled global climate model

The Asian summer monsoon dynamics at the orbital scale are a subject of considerable debate. The validity of Asian speleothem δ(18)O records as a proxy for summer monsoon intensity is questioned together with the ultimate forcing and timing of the monsoon. Here, using the results of a 150,000-year transient simulation including water isotopes, we demonstrate that Asian speleothem δ(18)O records are not a valid proxy for summer monsoon intensity only at the orbital timescale. Rather, our results show that these records reflect annual variations in hydrologic processes and circulation regime over a large part of the Indo-Asian region. Our results support the role of internal forcing, such as sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific, to modulate the timing of monsoon precipitation recorded in paleo-proxies inside the Asian region.

Agulhas leakage as a key process in the modes of Quaternary climate changes.

Heat and salt transfer from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean (Agulhas leakage) has an important effect on the global thermohaline circulation and climate. The lack of long transfer record prevents elucidation of its role on climate changes throughout the Quaternary. Here, we present a 1,350-ka accumulation rate record of the planktic foraminiferal species Globorotalia menardii. We demonstrate that, according to previous assumptions, the presence and reseeding of this fauna in the subtropical southeast Atlantic was driven by interocean exchange south of Africa. The Agulhas transfer strengthened at glacial ice-volume maxima for every glacial-interglacial transition, with maximum reinforcements organized according to a 400-ka periodicity. The long-term dynamics of Agulhas leakage may have played a crucial role in regulating meridional overturning circulation and global climate changes during the Mid-Brunhes event and the Mid-Pleistocene transition, and could also play an important role in the near future.

Quantitative estimate of the paleo-Agulhas leakage

The Indian-Atlantic water exchange south of Africa (Agulhas leakage) is a key component of the global ocean circulation. No quantitative estimation of the paleo-Agulhas leakage exists. We quantify the variability in interocean exchange over the past 640,000 years, using planktic foraminiferal assemblage data from two marine sediment records to define an Agulhas leakage efficiency index. We confirm the validity of our new approach with a numerical ocean model that realistically simulates the modern Agulhas leakage changes. Our results suggest that, during the past several glacial-interglacial cycles, the Agulhas leakage varied by ~10 sverdrup and more during major climatic transitions. This lends strong credence to the hypothesis that modifications in the leakage played a key role in changing the overturning circulation to full strength mode. Our results are instrumental for validating and quantifying the contribution of the Indian-Atlantic water leakage to the global climate changes.

Rapid termination of the African Humid Period triggered by northern high-latitude cooling

The rapidity and synchrony of the African Humid Period (AHP) termination at around 5.5 ka are debated, and it is unclear what caused a rapid hydroclimate response. Here we analysed the hydrogen isotopic composition of sedimentary leaf-waxes (δDwax) from the Gulf of Guinea, a proxy for regional precipitation in Cameroon and the central Sahel-Sahara. Our record indicates high precipitation during the AHP followed by a rapid decrease at 5.8–4.8 ka. The similarity with a δDwax record from northern East Africa suggests a large-scale atmospheric mechanism. We show that northern high- and mid-latitude cooling weakened the Tropical Easterly Jet and, through feedbacks, strengthened the African Easterly Jet. The associated decrease in precipitation triggered the AHP termination and combined with biogeophysical feedbacks to result in aridification. Our findings suggest that extratropical temperature changes, albeit smaller than during the glacial and deglacial, were important in triggering rapid African aridification during the Holocene.The synchrony, spatial distribution and causes of the African Humid Period termination at 5.5 ka remain debated. Here, the authors show that rapid aridification in Cameroon and the central Sahel-Sahara took place between 5.8–4.8 ka and was likely triggered by high- and mid-latitude cooling.

Modeling water isotopologues during the last glacial: Implications for quantitative paleosalinity reconstruction

Quantitative paleosalinity reconstructions with reasonable uncertainties remain a challenge in paleoceanography. In this study, we focus on stable isotope-based methods (δ18O and δ2H) to derive paleosalinity. We use the water isotopes-enabled fully coupled atmosphere/ocean/vegetation/land surface three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM to simulate the climate and water isotopes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich event 1. We investigate how the isotopes in water can be used as reliable proxies to quantitatively reconstruct past changes in seawater salinity. Our results demonstrate that a quantitative salinity reconstruction during glacial conditions based on present-day regional δ18O-salinity relationships can lead to considerable errors (up to 25 g/kg in certain regions). However, we show that these eventual uncertainties on paleosalinity reconstruction can be reduced by allowing for model-derived regional δ18O-salinity relationships to vary through time. Our results indicate a rather stable dependence between δ2H and δ18O in surface seawater during the LGM. This suggest that quantitative reconstruction of salinity based on the δ2H measurement of alkenones (δ2Ha) might be possible if the slope and the intercept of the regression between the fractionation factor δ2Ha-δ2Hsw and salinity can be sufficiently tightly constrained in open ocean conditions. We confirm that pairing water isotopologues has a strong potential to reduce uncertainties on quantitative paleosalinity reconstructions, also under glacial boundary conditions.

Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2°C anthropogenic warming and beyond

Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.A review of Earth system changes associated with past warmer climates provides constraints on the environmental changes that could occur under warming of 2 °C or more over pre-industrial temperatures.

Author Correction: Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond

In the version of this Review Article originally published, ref. 10 was mistakenly cited instead of ref. 107 at the end of the sentence: “This complexity of residual ice cover makes it likely that HTM warming was regional, rather than global, and its peak warmth thus had different timing in different locations.” In addition, for ref. 108, Scientific Reports was incorrectly given as the publication name; it should have been Scientific Data. These errors have now been corrected in the online versions.