Thilo Gross

Epidemic dynamics on an adaptive network.

Many real-world networks are characterized by adaptive changes in their topology depending on the state of their nodes. Here we study epidemic dynamics on an adaptive network, where the susceptibles are able to avoid contact with the infected by rewiring their network connections. This gives rise to assortative degree correlation, oscillations, hysteresis, and first order transitions. We propose a low-dimensional model to describe the system and present a full local bifurcation analysis. Our results indicate that the interplay between dynamics and topology can have important consequences for the spreading of infectious diseases and related applications.

Uninformed Individuals Promote Democratic Consensus in Animal Groups

Uninformed individuals inhibit extremism and enforce fair representation during collective decision-making. Conflicting interests among group members are common when making collective decisions, yet failure to achieve consensus can be costly. Under these circumstances individuals may be susceptible to manipulation by a strongly opinionated, or extremist, minority. It has previously been argued, for humans and animals, that social groups containing individuals who are uninformed, or exhibit weak preferences, are particularly vulnerable to such manipulative agents. Here, we use theory and experiment to demonstrate that, for a wide range of conditions, a strongly opinionated minority can dictate group choice, but the presence of uninformed individuals spontaneously inhibits this process, returning control to the numerical majority. Our results emphasize the role of uninformed individuals in achieving democratic consensus amid internal group conflict and informational constraints.

Structural kinetic modeling of metabolic networks

To develop and investigate detailed mathematical models of metabolic processes is one of the primary challenges in systems biology. However, despite considerable advance in the topological analysis of metabolic networks, kinetic modeling is still often severely hampered by inadequate knowledge of the enzyme–kinetic rate laws and their associated parameter values. Here we propose a method that aims to give a quantitative account of the dynamical capabilities of a metabolic system, without requiring any explicit information about the functional form of the rate equations. Our approach is based on constructing a local linear model at each point in parameter space, such that each element of the model is either directly experimentally accessible or amenable to a straightforward biochemical interpretation. This ensemble of local linear models, encompassing all possible explicit kinetic models, then allows for a statistical exploration of the comprehensive parameter space. The method is exemplified on two paradigmatic metabolic systems: the glycolytic pathway of yeast and a realistic-scale representation of the photosynthetic Calvin cycle.

Generalized Models Reveal Stabilizing Factors in Food Webs

Untangling Food Webs The factors affecting the stability of food webs are important in conservation and ecological restoration. Gross et al. (p. 747) used a generalized modeling approach to evaluate billions of replicates of food webs in order to reveal the properties that stabilize (or destabilize) food webs. Variability in the strength of trophic links between predator and prey strength affected stability in different ways depending on the size of the web—stabilizing only in relatively small food webs and destabilizing in larger ones. Universal topological rules were extracted for the patterns of network links that enhance food-web stability. Analysis of several billion replicates of food webs reveals universal topological rules affecting their stability. Insights into what stabilizes natural food webs have always been limited by a fundamental dilemma: Studies either need to make unwarranted simplifying assumptions, which undermines their relevance, or only examine few replicates of small food webs, which hampers the robustness of findings. We used generalized modeling to study several billion replicates of food webs with nonlinear interactions and up to 50 species. In this way, first we show that higher variability in link strengths stabilizes food webs only when webs are relatively small, whereas larger webs are instead destabilized. Second, we reveal a new power law describing how food-web stability scales with the number of species and their connectance. Third, we report two universal rules: Food-web stability is enhanced when (i) species at a high trophic level feed on multiple prey species and (ii) species at an intermediate trophic level are fed upon by multiple predator species.

Self-organized criticality as a fundamental property of neural systems

The neural criticality hypothesis states that the brain may be poised in a critical state at a boundary between different types of dynamics. Theoretical and experimental studies show that critical systems often exhibit optimal computational properties, suggesting the possibility that criticality has been evolutionarily selected as a useful trait for our nervous system. Evidence for criticality has been found in cell cultures, brain slices, and anesthetized animals. Yet, inconsistent results were reported for recordings in awake animals and humans, and current results point to open questions about the exact nature and mechanism of criticality, as well as its functional role. Therefore, the criticality hypothesis has remained a controversial proposition. Here, we provide an account of the mathematical and physical foundations of criticality. In the light of this conceptual framework, we then review and discuss recent experimental studies with the aim of identifying important next steps to be taken and connections to other fields that should be explored.

Failure of adaptive self-organized criticality during epileptic seizure attacks

Critical dynamics are assumed to be an attractive mode for normal brain functioning as information processing and computational capabilities are found to be optimal in the critical state. Recent experimental observations of neuronal activity patterns following power-law distributions, a hallmark of systems at a critical state, have led to the hypothesis that human brain dynamics could be poised at a phase transition between ordered and disordered activity. A so far unresolved question concerns the medical significance of critical brain activity and how it relates to pathological conditions. Using data from invasive electroencephalogram recordings from humans we show that during epileptic seizure attacks neuronal activity patterns deviate from the normally observed power-law distribution characterizing critical dynamics. The comparison of these observations to results from a computational model exhibiting self-organized criticality (SOC) based on adaptive networks allows further insights into the underlying dynamics. Together these results suggest that brain dynamics deviates from criticality during seizures caused by the failure of adaptive SOC.

Robust oscillations in SIS epidemics on adaptive networks: Coarse graining by automated moment closure

We investigate the dynamics of an epidemiological susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on an adaptive network. This model combines epidemic spreading (dynamics on the network) with rewiring of network connections (topological evolution of the network). We propose and implement a computational approach that enables us to study the dynamics of the network directly on an emergent, coarse-grained level. The approach sidesteps the derivation of closed low-dimensional approximations. Our investigations reveal that global coupling, which enters through the awareness of the population to the disease, can result in robust large-amplitude oscillations of the state and topology of the network.

All scale-free networks are sparse.

We study the realizability of scale-free networks with a given degree sequence, showing that the fraction of realizable sequences undergoes two first-order transitions at the values 0 and 2 of the power-law exponent. We substantiate this finding by analytical reasoning and by a numerical method, proposed here, based on extreme value arguments, which can be applied to any given degree distribution. Our results reveal a fundamental reason why large scale-free networks without constraints on minimum and maximum degree must be sparse.

Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions: A Generalized Modeling Approach

Critical transitions are sudden, often irreversible, changes that can occur in a large variety of complex systems; signals that warn of critical transitions are therefore highly desirable. We propose a new method for early warning signals that integrates multiple sources of information and data about the system through the framework of a generalized model. We demonstrate our proposed approach through several examples, including a previously published fisheries model. We regard our method as complementary to existing early warning signals, taking an approach of intermediate complexity between model-free approaches and fully parameterized simulations. One potential advantage of our approach is that, under appropriate conditions, it may reduce the amount of time series data required for a robust early warning signal.

Adaptive self-organization in a realistic neural network model

Information processing in complex systems is often found to be maximally efficient close to critical states associated with phase transitions. It is therefore conceivable that also neural information processing operates close to criticality. This is further supported by the observation of power-law distributions, which are a hallmark of phase transitions. An important open question is how neural networks could remain close to a critical point while undergoing a continual change in the course of development, adaptation, learning, and more. An influential contribution was made by Bornholdt and Rohlf, introducing a generic mechanism of robust self-organized criticality in adaptive networks. Here, we address the question whether this mechanism is relevant for real neural networks. We show in a realistic model that spike-time-dependent synaptic plasticity can self-organize neural networks robustly toward criticality. Our model reproduces several empirical observations and makes testable predictions on the distribution of synaptic strength, relating them to the critical state of the network. These results suggest that the interplay between dynamics and topology may be essential for neural information processing.