Thomas A Boden

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption

This paper examines available data, develops a strategy and presents a monthly, global time series of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions for the years 1950-2006. This monthly time series was constructed from detailed study of monthly data from the 21 countries that account for approximately 80% of global total emissions. These data were then used in a Monte Carlo approach to proxy for all remaining countries. The proportional-proxy methodology estimates by fuel group the fraction of annual emissions emitted in each country and month. Emissions from solid, liquid and gas fuels are explicitly modelled by the proportional-proxy method. The primary conclusion from this study is the global monthly time series is statistically significantly different from a uniform distribution throughout the year. Uncertainty analysis of the data presented show that the proportional-proxy method used faithfully reproduces monthly patterns in the data and the global monthly pattern of emissions is relatively insensitive to the exact proxy assignments used. The data and results presented here should lead to a better understanding of global and regional carbon cycles, especially when the mass data are combined with the stable carbon isotope data in atmospheric transport models.

A new evaluation of the uncertainty associated with CDIAC estimates of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission

Three uncertainty assessments associated with the global total of carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuel use and cement production are presented. Each assessment has its own strengths and weaknesses and none give a full uncertainty assessment of the emission estimates. This approach grew out of the lack of independent measurements at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Issues of dependent and independent data are considered as well as the temporal and spatial relationships of the data. The result is a multifaceted examination of the uncertainty associated with fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission estimates. The three assessments collectively give a range that spans from 1.0 to 13% (2 σ). Greatly simplifying the assessments give a global fossil fuel carbon dioxide uncertainty value of 8.4% (2 σ). In the largest context presented, the determination of fossil fuel emission uncertainty is important for a better understanding of the global carbon cycle and its implications for the physical, economic and political world.

A County-Level Approach to Regional Resource Analysis Based on Climate Simulation

Abstract This paper describes the use of a county-level approximation of the grid cells of a general circulation model as an approach to using environmental and resource data in analyzing the effects of climate change. As a demonstration, the effects are estimated of a possible climate change due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 on the production of soybeans using two simple approaches based on grid cell averages of county-level yield data. With the first approach, we assume that the future yields will be determined by current climate-yield relationships. The actual 1978 climate (approximate growing-degree days and precipitation in the growing season) corresponding to 1978 yield levels is calculated. The climate characteristics of grid cells with major (grid cell-averaged yield of 56.9–299.3 kg/ha) and minor (1.6–11.6 kg/ha) soybean yield are estimated. Potential future major and minor yields are then estimated from a simulated changed climate. With the second approach, future yields are estimated using a...

Department of energy strategic roadmap for Earth system science data integration

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) produces a diversity of data, information, software, and model codes across its research and informatics programs and facilities. This information includes raw and reduced observational and instrumentation data, model codes, model-generated results, and integrated data products. Currently, most of these data and information are prepared and shared for program specific activities, corresponding to CESD organization research. A major challenge facing BER CESD is how best to inventory, integrate, and deliver these vast and diverse resources for the purpose of accelerating Earth system science research. This paper provides a concept for a CESD Integrated Data Ecosystem and an initial roadmap for its implementation to address this integration challenge in the “Big Data” domain.