Thomas Benfield

Changing patterns of mortality across Europe in patients infected with HIV-1

BACKGROUND The introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy and protease inhibitors has led to reports of falling mortality rates among people infected with HIV-1. We examined the change in these mortality rates of HIV-1-infected patients across Europe during 1994-98, and assessed the extent to which changes can be explained by the use of new therapeutic regimens. METHODS We analysed data from EuroSIDA, which is a prospective, observational, European, multicentre cohort of 4270 HIV-1-infected patients. We compared death rates in each 6 month period from September, 1994, to March, 1998. FINDINGS By March, 1998, 1215 patients had died. The mortality rate from March to September, 1995, was 23.3 deaths per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI 20.6-26.0), and fell to 4.1 per 100 person-years of follow-up (2.3-5.9) between September, 1997, and March, 1998. From March to September, 1997, the death rate was 65.4 per 100 person-years of follow-up for those on no treatment, 7.5 per 100 person-years of follow-up for patients on dual therapy, and 3.4 per 100 person-years of follow-up for patients on triple-combination therapy. Compared with patients who were followed up from September, 1994, to March, 1995, patients seen between September, 1997, and March, 1998, had a relative hazard of death of 0.16 (0.08-0.32), which rose to 0.90 (0.50-1.64) after adjustment for treatment. INTERPRETATION Death rates across Europe among patients infected with HIV-1 have been falling since September, 1995, and at the beginning of 1998 were less than a fifth of their previous level. A large proportion of the reduction in mortality could be explained by new treatments or combinations of treatments.

Effects of mutations in Pneumocystis carinii dihydropteroate synthase gene on outcome of AIDS-associated P carinii pneumonia

BACKGROUND Sulpha drugs are widely used for the treatment and long-term prophylaxis of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) in HIV-1-infected individuals. Sulpha resistance in many microorganisms is caused by point mutations in dihydropteroate synthase (DHPS), an enzyme that is essential for folate biosynthesis. We assessed whether mutations in the DHPS gene of P. carinii were associated with exposure to sulpha drugs and influenced outcome from PCP. METHODS We studied bronchoalveolar samples collected in 1989-99 from a prospective cohort of HIV-1-infected patients who had PCP. In 144 patients with 152 episodes of PCP, we analysed portions of DHPS using PCR and direct sequencing. The relation between survival, P. carinii DHPS mutations, and other predictors of treatment failure was assessed by Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox regression analysis. FINDINGS P. carinii DHPS mutations were found in 31 (20.4%) of 152 PCP episodes. 3-month survival was significantly lower in patients infected with mutant P. carinii DHPS strains than in those with wild-type strains (p=0.002). After adjustment for other prognostic variables, presence of DHPS mutations remained the most important predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 3.1 [95% CI 1.2-8.1]). DHPS mutations were significantly more common in patients who had previous exposure to sulpha drugs (18 of 29 [62%]) than in those who had no exposure (13 of 123 [10.5%]; p<0.0001). A significant increase with time in the rate of DHPS mutations (p=0.01 for trend) was closely correlated with the rate of previous or current use of sulpha drugs as chemoprophylaxis. INTERPRETATION Mutations in DHPS are associated with impaired prognosis in PCP, and may develop as a result of exposure to sulpha drugs.

Heterozygosity for a deletion in the CKR-5 gene leads to prolonged AIDS-free survival and slower CD4 T-cell decline in a cohort of HIV-seropositive individuals.

Objective:Recently, it has been shown that a homozygous 32 base-pair deletion in the gene encoding CKR-5, a major coreceptor for HIV-1, leads to resistance to infection with HIV-1. We have investigated whether HIV-seropositive individuals who were heterozygous for the CKR-5 deletion had a different course of the disease. Design:Thirty-five high-risk HIV-seronegative and 99 HIV-seropositive Danish homosexual men followed from 1985 to 1996 and 37 blood donors were analysed for their CKR-5 genotype by polymerase chain reaction. Results:Two (6%) of the 35 HIV-seronegative subjects at high-risk of infection were homozygous and seven (20%) were heterozygous for the CKR-5 deletion. This was not significantly different from the distribution in normal donors. Twenty-two (22%) of the 99 HIV-seropositive subjects were heterozygous and none was homozygous. Two subgroups of patients who had an opposite course of the HIV disease were identified. Of nine long-term non-progressors, six (66%) were heterozygous for the deletion. This frequency is significantly higher than in nine rapid progressors of whom none was heterozygous. The frequency of heterozygotes in long-term nonprogressors was also significantly higher than in the cohort as a whole. A Kaplan-Meier plot of the HIV-seropositive subjects, of whom 57 developed AIDS, showed a significantly better prognosis within the first 7 years of follow-up for those who were heterozygous for the deletion. Heterozygous individuals also had a significantly slower decrease in CD4 T-cell count per year. Conclusion:Individuals who are heterozygous for the 32-base-pair deletion in the CKR-5 gene have a slower decrease in their CD4 T-cell count and a longer AIDS-free survival than individuals with the wild-type gene for up to 11 years of follow-up.

Pneumococcal Serotypes and Mortality following Invasive Pneumococcal Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Analyzing population-based data collected over 30 years in more than 18,000 patients with invasive pneumococcal infection, Zitta Harboe and colleagues find specific pneumococcal serotypes to be associated with increased mortality.

Impact of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Incidence and Mortality

BACKGROUND The impact of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) at the population level is unclear. We explored PCV13s effect in reducing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD)-related morbidity and mortality, and whether serotype-specific changes were attributable to vaccination or expected as a part of natural, cyclical variations. METHODS This was a Danish nationwide population-based cohort study based on the linkage of laboratory surveillance data and the Danish Civil Registration System. Changes in IPD incidence and mortality during baseline (2000-2007), 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) (2008-2010), and PCV13 (2011-2013) periods were estimated. Predicted incidences of serotypes were estimated controlling for cyclical trends from historical patterns observed during the past 20 years. RESULTS We observed a 21% reduction (95% confidence interval [CI], 17%-25%) in IPD incidence in the total population after PCV13s introduction, and a 71% reduction (95% CI, 62%-79%) in children aged <2 years, considered as the vaccine effectiveness. We estimated a 28% reduction (95% CI, 18%-37%) in IPD-related 30-day mortality, from 3.4 deaths (95% CI, 3.2-3.6) per 100 000 population in the pre-PCV period to 2.4 (95% CI, 2.2-2.7) in the PCV13 period. The decline in mortality was observed across all age groups but was mainly related to mortality reductions in the nonvaccinated population. For serotypes 1 and 3, there were no significant changes in incidence beyond what would be expected from natural cyclical patterns. Serotype 19A significantly increased following PCV7s introduction, but the incidence declined toward baseline in 2012. CONCLUSIONS PCV13 has brought greater benefits than we had expected in our setting. We observed a further decline on IPD incidence shortly after the shift from PCV7 to PCV13 in the national immunization program. This decline was accompanied by a substantial population-level decline in pneumococcal-related mortality of nearly 30% among nonvaccinated persons.

Temporal Trends in Invasive Pneumococcal Disease and Pneumococcal Serotypes over 7 Decades

Background. Pneumococcal infections have historically played a major role in terms of morbidity and mortality. We explored historical trends of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumococcal serotypes in a population exposed to limited antibiotic selective pressure and conjugate pneumococcal vaccination (PCV). Methods. Retrospective cohort study based on nationwide laboratory surveillance data on IPD collected uninterruptedly in Denmark during 1938-2007. Changes in the reported incidence and trends of pneumococcal serotypes were explored using nonlinear regression analysis. Results. There were 25,502 IPD cases included in our study. The median incidence of IPD increased from 2.8 cases per 100,000 population (interquartile range [IQR], 1.5-2.6) during the first 4 decades to 15.7 cases per 100,000 population (IQR, 7-20.4) during the 1980s and 1990s, mainly attributed to an increase in the number of bacteremia cases. The incidence of meningitis remained relatively stable, with a median of 1.3 cases per 100,000 population (IQR, 0.9-1.6). The proportions of serotypes/groups 4 and 9 increased; the proportion of serotype 18C decreased; the proportions of serotypes 6, 7F, 14, and 23F remained stable; and serotype 2 nearly disappeared. Before the 1960s, serotypes 1, 2, 3, and 5 presented peaks every 2-3 years, becoming less frequent during the 1970s with peaks every 7-10 years. Between 20% and 90% of IPD in children <5 years were caused by PCV serotypes during the last 4 decades. Cases of IPD caused by serotype 19A increased before introduction of PCV. Between 1993 and 2007, the level of resistance to macrolides and β-lactams was ≤6%. Conclusions. The epidemiology of IPD and single serotypes has constantly changed over the past 7 decades. PCV serotypes appeared to dominate the pneumococcal population.

Nontuberculous Pulmonary Mycobacteriosis in Denmark: Incidence and Prognostic Factors

RATIONALE Few population-based data are available regarding nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) pulmonary disease epidemiology and prognosis. OBJECTIVES To examine NTM pulmonary colonization incidence, disease incidence, and prognostic factors. METHODS All adults in Denmark with at least one NTM-positive pulmonary specimen during 1997 to 2008 were identified using national medical databases and were categorized as having possible or definite NTM disease or colonization. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS We calculated annual age-standardized NTM incidence rates and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of death associated with patient age, sex, comorbidity, NTM species, and NTM disease status. Of 1,282 adults with 2,666 NTM-positive pulmonary specimens, 335 (26%) had definite NTM disease, 238 (19%) possible disease, and 709 (55%) colonization only. NTM incidence rates decreased until 2002, followed by an increase from 2003 to 2008 (mean annual rate per 100,000 person-years: NTM colonization, 1.36; NTM disease, 1.08). Five-year mortality after definite NTM disease was 40.1%. After controlling for potential confounders, 5-year mortality for definite NTM disease was slightly higher than for NTM colonization (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-1.51). Mycobacterium xenopi was associated with worse prognosis (adjusted HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 0.99-2.33) than the reference Mycobacterium avium complex. High comorbidity level (HR, 2.97), age greater than or equal to 65 years (HR, 9.17), and male sex (female sex HR, 0.73) were predictors of death. CONCLUSIONS NTM disease incidence has remained unchanged in Denmark over the past 12 years. Patients with NTM colonization and disease have similarly poor prognosis. Negative prognostic factors include high levels of comorbidity, advanced age, male sex, and M. xenopi.

Syphilis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 coinfection : Influence on CD4 T-cell count, HIV-1 viral load, and treatment response

Objectives: To assess the effect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 and syphilis coinfection on HIV-ribonucleic acid (RNA) viral load, CD4 cell count, and the response in rapid plasmin reagin (RPR) to treatment of the syphilis infection. Study Design: Cases of syphilis diagnosed during 1 year in HIV-infected patients in Copenhagen were included. HIV-RNA, CD4 cell counts, and RPR-serology were measured before, during, and after syphilis. Results: Forty-one patients were included. CD4 cell count decreased significantly during infection in patients with primary and secondary stages of syphilis (mean 106 cells/mm3, P = 0.03). Treatment of syphilis was associated with an increase in the CD4 cell count and a decrease in HIV-RNA in the overall group (mean 66 cells/mm3 and −0.261 RNA log10 copies/ml, P = 0.02 and 0.04). The serological response rates for 15 patients treated with penicillin and 25 treated with doxycycline were the same. Conclusion: Syphilis was associated with a decrease in CD4 cell counts and an increase in HIV-RNA levels that both improved after treatment of syphilis.

Dihydropteroate synthase gene mutations in Pneumocystis and sulfa resistance

We review studies of dihydropteroate synthase gene mutations in Pneumocystis jirovecii and summarize the evidence for resistance to sulfamethoxazole and dapsone.

Serotype-specific mortality from invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae disease revisited

BackgroundInvasive infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococci) causes significant morbidity and mortality. Case series and experimental data have shown that the capsular serotype is involved in the pathogenesis and a determinant of disease outcome.MethodsRetrospective review of 464 cases of invasive disease among adults diagnosed between 1990 and 2001. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis.ResultsAfter adjustment for other markers of disease severity, we found that infection with serotype 3 was associated with an increased relative risk (RR) of death of 2.54 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22–5.27), whereas infection with serotype 1 was associated with a decreased risk of death (RR 0.23 (95% CI, 0.06–0.97)). Additionally, older age, relative leucopenia and relative hypothermia were independent predictors of mortality.ConclusionOur study shows that capsular serotypes independently influenced the outcome from invasive pneumococcal disease. The limitations of the current polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine warrant the development of alternative vaccines. We suggest that the virulence of pneumococcal serotypes should be considered in the design of novel vaccines.