Thomas C. Ricketts

The Effects of Having a Regular Doctor on Access to Primary Care

The authors assessed the relationship between having a regular doctor and access to care, as measured by a set of preventive and primary care utilization indicators recommended by the Institute of Medicine. The 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey was used in the analyses (n = 30,012). The results of the regression analyses suggest that individuals with any type of regular source of care had better access than those without a regular source of care. Persons with a regular doctor had better access to primary care than those with a regular site but no regular doctor. However, the apparent advantage of having a regular doctor over a regular site disappeared when only those individuals reporting a physicians office, clinic, or health maintenance organization as their regular source of care were compared. These results suggest that policies that promote the doctor-patient relationship will increase access, although the gains may be negligible for individuals who use mainstream primary care sites (physicians office, clinic, or health maintenance organization) versus sites such as walk-in clinics or emergency rooms.

Defining Urban and Rural Areas in U.S. Epidemiologic Studies

Among epidemiologists, there has been increasing interest in the characteristics of communities that influence health. In the United States, the rural health disparity has been a recent focus of attention and made a priority for improvement. While many standardized definitions of urban and rural exist and are used by social scientists and demographers, they are found in sources unfamiliar to health researchers and have largely not been used in public health studies. This paper briefly reviews some available definitions of urban and rural for American geographic subunits and their respective strengths and weaknesses. For example, some definitions are better suited than others for capturing access to health care services. The authors applied different definitions to breast cancer incidence rates to show how urban/rural rate ratio comparisons would vary by choice of definition and found that dichotomous definitions may fail to capture variability in very rural areas. Further study of the utility of these measures in health studies is warranted.

Hospitalization rates as indicators of access to primary care.

Variations in hospitalization rates for selected conditions are being used as indicators of the effectiveness of primary care in small areas. Are these rates actually sensitive to problems in local primary care systems? This study examines the relationship between ambulatory care sensitive condition (ACSC) hospital admission rates and primary care resources and the economic conditions in primary care market areas in North Carolina in 1994. The data show a high degree of correlation between the rates and income but not primary care resources. The distribution of rates did agree with expert assessments of the location of places with poor access to health services. The data confirm that access to effective primary care reflected in lower rates of ACSC admissions is a function of more than the professional resources available in a market area. The solution to reducing disparities in health status may not lie within the health system.

Understanding Biased Selection in Medicare HMOs

OBJECTIVE To investigate the extent of favorable health maintenance organization (HMO) selection for a longitudinal cohort of Medicare beneficiaries, examine whether the extent of favorable selection varies with the degree of Medicare HMO market penetration in a county, and explain conflicting findings in the literature on favorable HMO selection. DATA SOURCES A panel of 1992-1996 data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), supplemented with linked data from the Area Resource File and Medicare administrative datasets. STUDY DESIGN Using random effects probit estimation, we model a beneficiarys HMO enrollment status as a function of self-reported health status and Medicare HMO market penetration. DATA EXTRACTION METHODS The MCBS data for beneficiaries residing in states served by Medicare HMOs in 1992-1996 were linked by county to the supplementary datasets. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We find that favorable selection persists in the cohort over time on some, but not all, measures. We find no substantial association between favorable HMO selection and HMO market penetration. We find that conflicting findings in the literature on favorable HMO selection may be explained by several methodological choices, including the choice of health status measure and the structure of the sample. CONCLUSIONS Our results support further risk adjustment of the adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) payment formula.

Alliances in health care: What we know, what we think we know, and what we should know

Alliances are the organizations of the future. This article builds on the lessons from industry identifying important areas requiring definition and basic understanding of alliance structure, process, and outcome in health care services.

The Association of Changes in Local Health Department Resources With Changes in State-Level Health Outcomes

We explored the association between changes in local health department (LHD) resource levels with changes in health outcomes via a retrospective cohort study. We measured changes in expenditures and staffing reported by LHDs on the 1997 and 2005 National Association of County and City Health Officials surveys and assessed changes in state-level health outcomes with the Americas Health Rankings reports for those years. We used pairwise correlation and multivariate regression to analyze the association of changes in LHD resources with changes in health outcomes. Increases in LHD expenditures were significantly associated with decreases in infectious disease morbidity at the state level (P = .037), and increases in staffing were significantly associated with decreases in cardiovascular disease mortality (P = .014), controlling for other factors.

Workforce issues in rural areas: a focus on policy equity.

Rural communities in the United States are served by relatively fewer health care professionals than urban or suburban areas. I review the geographic distribution of 6 classes of health professionals and describe the multiple government and private policies and programs intended to affect their geographic distribution. These programs can be classified into 3 categories--coercive, normative, and utilitarian--that characterize the major policy levers used to influence practice location decisions. Health workforce policies must be normative to ensure equity for rural communities, but goals in this area can be achieved only through a balance of utilitarian and coercive mechanisms.

Poverty, Health Services, and Health Status in Rural America

Access to health services for everyone has been a major policy goal in the United States: inequitable access is assumed to lead to inequitable health status, particularly for low-income groups. A sophisticated model of the relation between poverty, health care needs, service use, and health outcomes is used to analyze cross-sectional data on 7,823 adults from 36 rural communities. Improved access and use are helpful, but evidence clearly indicates that combined health and social initiatives will be necessary to reduce inequalities in health status.

Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

Objective:To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. Summary Background Data:The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. Methods:The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. Results:Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. Conclusions:The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

Multivariate population-based analysis of the association of county trauma centers with per capita county trauma death rates

UNLABELLED The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based data base to determine the association of trauma centers with per capita county trauma death rates. METHODS Per capita county trauma death rate, the dependent variable in the model, was obtained from a well-validated state Medical Examiners data base. Over 200 county demographic, prehospital, and hospital trauma care resource variables were obtained from a variety of sources for multivariate modeling. Bivariate analysis identified candidate variables for multivariate modeling, excluding highly correlated independent variables to avoid problems of collinearity. Multivariate linear regression, logistic regression, and stepwise discriminant analysis were used to determine the relative association of the candidate variables with per capita county trauma death rates. RESULTS Bivariate analysis identified multiple factors associated with per capita county trauma death rates. These included, among others: county rurality, percentage of unemployment, percentage nonwhite, 911 access, and ALS certified EMS. Per capita trauma death rates were significantly lower in counties with trauma centers compared with counties without trauma centers (4.0 +/- 0.5 and 5.0 +/- 1.1 deaths per 10,000 population, p = 0.0001, respectively). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the presence of a trauma center in the county and ALS were the best medical system factors predicting decreased per capita county trauma death rates. CONCLUSIONS This study is unique in utilizing a regional population-based data base of all trauma deaths in a large state to analyze the association of trauma centers and trauma death rates. Multivariate modeling controlling for other county variables demonstrated that the presence of a trauma center and Advanced Life Support training were the best predictors of per capita county trauma death rates. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that trauma centers decrease trauma death rates.