Thomas F. Fondell

Prevalence of Influenza A viruses in wild migratory birds in Alaska: Patterns of variation in detection at a crossroads of intercontinental flyways

BackgroundThe global spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus has stimulated interest in a better understanding of the mechanisms of H5N1 dispersal, including the potential role of migratory birds as carriers. Although wild birds have been found dead during H5N1 outbreaks, evidence suggests that others have survived natural infections, and recent studies have shown several species of ducks capable of surviving experimental inoculations of H5N1 and shedding virus. To investigate the possibility of migratory birds as a means of H5N1 dispersal into North America, we monitored for the virus in a surveillance program based on the risk that wild birds may carry the virus from Asia.ResultsOf 16,797 birds sampled in Alaska between May 2006 and March 2007, low pathogenic avian influenza viruses were detected in 1.7% by rRT-PCR but no highly pathogenic viruses were found. Our data suggest that prevalence varied among sampling locations, species (highest in waterfowl, lowest in passerines), ages (juveniles higher than adults), sexes (males higher than females), date (highest in autumn), and analytical technique (rRT-PCR prevalence = 1.7%; virus isolation prevalence = 1.5%).ConclusionThe prevalence of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses isolated from wild birds depends on biological, temporal, and geographical factors, as well as testing methods. Future studies should control for, or sample across, these sources of variation to allow direct comparison of prevalence rates.

OPTIMIZING NEST SURVIVAL AND FEMALE SURVIVAL: CONSEQUENCES OF NEST SITE SELECTION FOR CANADA GEESE

Abstract We examined the relationship between attributes of nest sites used by Canada Geese (Branta canadensis) in the Copper River Delta, Alaska, and patterns in nest and female survival. We aimed to determine whether nest site attributes related to nest and female survival differed and whether nest site attributes related to nest survival changed within and among years. Nest site attributes that we examined included vegetation at and surrounding the nest, as well as associations with other nesting birds. Optimal nest site characteristics were different depending on whether nest survival or female survival was examined. Prior to 25 May, the odds of daily survival for nests in tall shrubs and on islands were 2.92 and 2.26 times greater, respectively, than for nests in short shrub sites. Bald Eagles (Halieaeetus leucocephalus) are the major predator during the early breeding season and their behavior was likely important in determining this pattern. After 25 May, when eagle predation is limited due to the availability of alternative prey, no differences in nest survival among the nest site types were found. In addition, nest survival was positively related to the density of other Canada Goose nests near the nest site. Although the number of detected mortalities for females was relatively low, a clear pattern was found, with mortality three times more likely at nest sites dominated by high shrub density within 50 m than at open sites dominated by low shrub density. The negative relationship of nest concealment and adult survival is consistent with that found in other studies of ground-nesting birds. Physical barriers that limited access to nest sites by predators and sites that allowed for early detection of predators were important characteristics of nest site quality for Canada Geese and nest site quality shifted within seasons, likely as a result of shifting predator-prey interactions.

Nest survival in dusky Canada geese ( Branta canadensis occidentalis ): Use of discrete-time models

Abstract The Dusky Canada Goose (Branta canadensis occidentalis) population that breeds in the Copper River Delta, Alaska, has declined substantially since the late 1970s. Persistent low numbers have been attributed to low productivity in recent years. We examined patterns in survival rates of 1,852 nests to better understand ecological processes that influenced productivity during 1997-2000. We compared 10 nonparametric models of daily survival rate of nests (DSR) that included variation among years, calendar dates, nest initiation dates, and nest ages with equivalent models based on parametric functions. The unequivocal best model included patterns of DSR that varied among discrete periods of years, calendar dates, and nest ages. Generally, DSR was low early in the nesting season and higher midseason. Across years, patterns in DSR were most variable early and late in the nesting season. Daily survival rates of nests declined between the first and second week after initiation, increased until the fourth week, and then declined during the last week before hatch. Nest survival probability estimates ranged from 0.07 to 0.71 across years and nest initiation dates. Mean rates of nest survival ranged between 0.21 and 0.31 each year. We suggest (1) considering models that do not limit estimates of daily nest survival to parametric forms; (2) placing greater emphasis on sample size when nests are rare, to obtain accurate estimates of nest survival; and (3) developing new techniques to estimate the number of nests initiated. Supervivencia de los Nidos en Branta canadensis occidentalis: Uso de Modelos de Tiempo Discreto

A quantitative approach to identifying predators from nest remains

Abstract Nesting success of Dusky Canada Geese (Branta canadensis occidentalis) has declined greatly since a major earthquake affected southern Alaska in 1964. To identify nest predators, we collected predation data at goose nests and photographs of predators at natural nests containing artificial eggs in 1997–2000. To document feeding behavior by nest predators, we compiled the evidence from destroyed nests with known predators on our study site and from previous studies. We constructed a profile for each predator group and compared the evidence from 895 nests with unknown predators to our predator profiles using mixture-model analysis. This analysis indicated that 72% of destroyed nests were depredated by Bald Eagles and 13% by brown bears, and also yielded the probability that each nest was correctly assigned to a predator group based on model fit. Model testing using simulations indicated that the proportion estimated for eagle predation was unbiased and the proportion for bear predation was slightly overestimated. This approach may have application whenever there are adequate data on nests destroyed by known predators and predators exhibit different feeding behavior at nests.

Techniques for identifying predators of goose nests

Abstract We used cameras and artificial eggs to identify nest predators of dusky Canada goose Branta canadensis occidentalis nests during 1997–2000. Cameras were set up at 195 occupied goose nests and 60 artificial nests. We placed wooden eggs and domestic goose eggs that were emptied and then filled with wax or foam in an additional 263 natural goose nests to identify predators from marks in the artificial eggs. All techniques had limitations, but each correctly identified predators and estimated their relative importance. Nests with cameras had higher rates of abandonment than natural nests, especially during laying. Abandonment rates were reduced by deploying artificial eggs late in laying and reducing time at nests. Predation rates for nests with cameras were slightly lower than for nests without cameras. Wax-filled artificial eggs caused mortality of embryos in natural nests, but were better for identifying predator marks at artificial nests. Use of foam-filled artificial eggs in natural nests was the most cost effective means of monitoring nest predation.

Survival of Dusky Canada Goose Goslings in Relation to Weather and Annual Nest Success

Abstract The dusky Canada goose (Branta canadensis occidentalis) population has been in long-term decline, likely due to reduced breeding productivity, but gosling survival of this population had not been examined. We studied gosling survival in broods of radiomarked adult females on the western Copper River Delta, Alaska, USA, during 1997–1999 and 2001–2003. Survival estimates for dusky Canada goose goslings to 45 days (x̄ = 0.32) were below estimates from most previous studies of geese. Daily survival of goslings increased with age and decreased with date of hatch. Precipitation during the first 3 days post-hatch was negatively related to gosling survival and this effect increased with date. Annual estimates of gosling survival were positively correlated with annual estimates of nest success, suggesting overlap in factors affecting nest and gosling survival. Nest success probably also directly affected gosling survival, because survival decreased with hatch date and more broods hatched from renests during years with low nest success. Gosling survival appears to play an important role in limiting current productivity of this population. Management directed at increasing nest success would likely also improve gosling survival. We recommend additional research directed at examining sources of gosling mortality and the link between nest success and gosling survival.

Renesting by Dusky Canada Geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

Abstract The population of dusky Canada geese (Branta canadensis occidentalis; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Intercolony Variation in Growth of Black Brant Goslings on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

ABSTRACT Recent declines in black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are likely the result of low recruitment. In geese, recruitment is strongly affected by habitat conditions experienced by broods because gosling growth rates are indicative of forage conditions during brood rearing and strongly influence future survival and productivity. In 2006–2008, we studied gosling growth at 3 of the 4 major colonies on the YukonKuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Estimates of age-adjusted gosling mass at the 2 southern colonies (approx. 30% of the world population of breeding black brack) was low (gosling mass at 30.5 days ranged 346.7 ± 42.5 g to 627.1 ± 15.9 g) in comparison to a third colony (gosling mass at 30.5 days ranged 640.0 ± 8.3 g to 821.6 ± 13.6 g) and to most previous estimates of age-adjusted mass of brant goslings. Thus, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that poor gosling growth is negatively influencing the brant population. There are 2 non-mutually exclusive explanations for the apparent growth rates we observed. First, the population decline may have been caused by density-independent factors and habitat capacity has declined along with the population as a consequence of the unique foraging feedback between brant and their grazing habitats. Alternatively, a reduction in habitat capacity, as a result of changes to the grazing system, may have negatively influenced gosling growth, which is contributing to the overall long-term population decline. We found support for both explanations. For colonies over habitat capacity we recommend management to enhance foraging habitat, whereas for colonies below habitat capacity we recommend management to increase nesting productivity.

Factors influencing nest survival and productivity of Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) in Alaska

ABSTRACT Red-throated Loon (Gavia stellata) numbers in Alaska have fluctuated dramatically over the past 3 decades; however, the demographic processes contributing to these population dynamics are poorly understood. To examine spatial and temporal variation in productivity, we estimated breeding parameters at 5 sites in Alaska: at Cape Espenberg and the Copper River Delta we estimated nest survival, and at 3 sites within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta we estimated nest survival and productivity. Nest survival varied broadly among sites and years; annual estimates (lower, upper 95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.09 (0.03, 0.29) at Cape Espenberg in 2001 to 0.93 (0.76, 0.99) at the Copper River Delta in 2002. Annual variation among sites was not concordant, suggesting that site-scale factors had a strong influence on nest survival. Models of nest survival indicated that visits to monitor nests had a negative effect on nest daily survival probability, which if not accounted for biased nest survival strongly downward. The sensitivity of breeding Red-throated Loons to nest monitoring suggests other sources of disturbance that cause incubating birds to flush from their nests may also reduce nest survival. Nest daily survival probability at the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta was negatively associated with an annual index of fox occurrence. Survival through the incubation and chick-rearing periods on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta ranged from 0.09 (0.001, 0.493) to 0.50 (0.04, 0.77). Daily survival probability during the chick-rearing period was lower for chicks that had a sibling in 2 of 3 years, consistent with the hypothesis that food availability was limited. Estimates of annual productivity on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta ranged from 0.17 to 1.0 chicks per pair. Productivity was not sufficient to maintain population stability in 2 of 3 years, indicating that nest depredation by foxes and poor foraging conditions during chick rearing can have important effects on productivity.

International migration patterns of Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) from four breeding populations in Alaska

Identifying post-breeding migration and wintering distributions of migratory birds is important for understanding factors that may drive population dynamics. Red-throated Loons (Gavia stellata) are widely distributed across Alaska and currently have varying population trends, including some populations with recent periods of decline. To investigate population differentiation and the location of migration pathways and wintering areas, which may inform population trend patterns, we used satellite transmitters (n = 32) to describe migration patterns of four geographically separate breeding populations of Red-throated Loons in Alaska. On average (± SD) Red-throated Loons underwent long (6,288 ± 1,825 km) fall and spring migrations predominantly along coastlines. The most northern population (Arctic Coastal Plain) migrated westward to East Asia and traveled approximately 2,000 km farther to wintering sites than the three more southerly populations (Seward Peninsula, Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, and Copper River Delta) which migrated south along the Pacific coast of North America. These migration paths are consistent with the hypothesis that Red-throated Loons from the Arctic Coastal Plain are exposed to contaminants in East Asia. The three more southerly breeding populations demonstrated a chain migration pattern in which the more northerly breeding populations generally wintered in more northerly latitudes. Collectively, the migration paths observed in this study demonstrate that some geographically distinct breeding populations overlap in wintering distribution while others use highly different wintering areas. Red-throated Loon population trends in Alaska may therefore be driven by a wide range of effects throughout the annual cycle.