Thomas F. Sanquist

The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits

This report articulates nine mechanisms by which the smart grid can reduce energy use and carbon impacts associated with electricity generation and delivery. The quantitative estimates of potential reductions in electricity sector energy and associated CO2 emissions presented are based on a survey of published results and simple analyses. This report does not attempt to justify the cost effectiveness of the smart grid, which to date has been based primarily upon the twin pillars of cost-effective operation and improved reliability. Rather, it attempts to quantify the additional energy and CO2 emission benefits inherent in the smart grid’s potential contribution to the nation’s goal of mitigating climate change by reducing the carbon footprint of the electric power system.

Augmenting the operator function model with cognitive operations: assessing the cognitive demands of technological innovation in ship navigation

The increasing technological sophistication of ship navigation systems may significantly alter the skills, knowledge, and strategies involved in navigating large ships. Many examples in other domains illustrate the dangers of technology-driven innovations. These examples show that without a systematic method to detect design flaws and training requirements, technology-driven designs may degrade rather than enhance maritime safety. The operator function model (OFM) provides the basis for examining technological innovations; however, the OFM does not describe specific cognitive demands. Augmenting the OFM with a description of cognitive operations provides a structured cognitive task analysis tool-OFM-COG-that can identify the design and training requirements needed to safeguard system performance. This approach identifies how to tailor designs, develop training, and adjust qualifications to minimize the human errors that might otherwise accompany technological innovation. The paper shows how OFM-COG can catalog differences between traditional navigation systems and those augmented with electronic charts and collision avoidance systems. Specifically, it examines the cognitive demands of collision avoidance and track keeping, with and without advanced technological aids. This analysis demonstrates that some advanced radars may in fact increase the likelihood of certain collisions, and that the current certification process does not reflect the cognitive demands of the new technology. The analysis also indicates that electronic chart display and information systems (ECDIS) can reduce the redundancy that has served to make traditional systems quite reliable. Drawing upon these examples, the paper describes OFM-COG and demonstrates how this model-based analysis technique can document the cognitive implications of technological innovations.

Human and organizational factors in security screening and inspection systems: conceptual framework and key research needs

This paper presents a macroergonomic conceptual framework for human and organizational factors in security screening and inspection (SSI) systems of cargo and passengers across three transportation modes: air, rail, and sea. The framework categorizes human and organizational factors into five categories of the SSI work system: organization, operational environment, individual or operator, tasks and workload, and SSI tools and technologies. The framework is an expanded description of human and organizational factors in each transportation mode with key areas for human factors research in SSI systems. Research recommendations and implications for the intelligent design and intelligent support of SSI systems include organizational and job design of SSI systems, roles of human error and violations in SSI systems, and design of effective alarm systems.

Designing Effective Alarms for Radiation Detection in Homeland Security Screening

In this correspondence, the human factors involved in the design of effective homeland security threat detection systems are described and illustrated for radiation portal monitor (RPM) systems deployed at U.S. ports of entry. Due to the occurrence of nuisance alarms based on naturally occurring radioactive material and the low base rate of nuclear smuggling incidents, it is shown that the probability of a true threat alarm for these systems is extremely low. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of RPM systems illustrates good simple detection capability, but threat classification performance only at the chance level. Application of the human factors concept of the threat likelihood display, based on energy spectrum and cargo commodity data fusion for signal classification, reduces nuisance alarms and increases the probability of a true threat alarm to potentially effective levels. Thus, threat likelihood displays offer an approach for enhancing the effectiveness of homeland security detection and warning systems by raising the credibility of the alerts that are provided.

Cognitive Engineering in Radiation Screening for Homeland Security

Cognitive engineering methods in a large-scale homeland security program are described. Screening cargo containers at seaports for illicit radioactive material involves substantial staff, technology, and human operator decision making. The systems engineering model used by the radiation portal monitor (RPM) program entails elements similar to the incremental commitment model, which provides a risk-based focus for applications of cognitive engineering. This model includes methods for defining opportunities and context of use, methods for requirements and design solutions, and methods for evaluation. The application examples illustrate each of these general areas through work domain analysis, signal detection modeling, design of displays for radiation threat likelihood, and evaluation of the design concepts with field test data. The signal detection analysis shows how system detection sensitivity requirements for design can be established for low-probability, high-consequence events such as threats. The threat display concept developed by cognitive engineers has been implemented in new fielded systems. The success of cognitive engineering in the RPM program is largely a result of working with an incremental approach to systems engineering. This perspective provides application focus to those areas most likely to benefit from cognitive engineering within the overall constraints of the work domain, program schedule, and budget.

Fatigue in Highway Construction Workers: Risks and Countermeasures in Rapid Renewal Project Schedules

This paper describes findings from a field study conducted during the first phase of a 3-year project sponsored by the SHRP 2 Renewal Program that investigated the problem of worker and manager fatigue on highway construction sites that use rapid renewal practices. The field study included interviews with 20 subject matter experts, contractors, and state departments of transportation representatives, and a survey of 47 employees measuring work and sleep schedules, attitudes about fatigue, fatigue levels, and fatigue countermeasures employed. Worker and manager fatigue was found to be a problem on highway construction sites that was exacerbated by accelerated construction practices such as night work and weekend closures. This problem was widely acknowledged by both management and labor. Methods for dealing with fatigue were found to be informal, and there was wide variability in attitudes about fatigue. Fatigue countermeasures relevant to highway construction have been studied in other contexts and are already practiced in other industries. Therefore, a set of specific fatigue countermeasures, targeted at the rapid renewal environment, could be developed. The set would be comprised of management interventions (e.g., fatigue training, work scheduling aids, incident reporting and review) and individual interventions (e.g., sleep hygiene, napping, use of caffeine). An integrated fatigue risk management program for rapid renewal projects would include (a) work scheduling and work practice guidance based on the science of fatigue, (b) organizational practice guidance, (c) fatigue management reference materials, (d) training materials for managers and workers, and (e) outreach materials for raising awareness.

Integrated assessment modeling of energy consumption behavior and carbon emissions

This paper describes elements of an integrated modeling approach to human behavior and energy consumption. Developing a sustainable society is a key aspect of international security, and understanding the areas where consumption and carbon emissions can be reduced is essential. We employ statistical analysis of residential energy consumption in the US and other countries to describe the underlying patterns of energy use, and provide international comparisons at an aggregate level.

A Review, Evaluation and Classification of Fatigue Countermeasures for Transportation Operators

An expert panel and scientific literature analysis provided data for classifying and evaluating countermeasures for transportation operator fatigue. The panel identified a set of risk factors that are common across transportation modes, and a variety of strategies used or available to reduce fatigue. Twenty such fatigue countermeasures were identified and evaluated on the basis of empirical data in the literature. Of the twenty, only six provide reasonable relief from fatigue without undesirable side effects; these include: adequate sleep, caffeine, napping, anchor sleep, trip planning, and a good sleeping environment. The remaining 14 countermeasures either produce side effects, are illegal without a prescription, are impractical for everyday implementation, or simply do not work. These latter countermeasures, such as opening a window for fresh air while driving, or stopping to exercise, are potentially dangerous, as they may lead drivers to believe they are not fatigued when in fact they are.

Methods for Assessing Training and Qualification Needs for Automated Ships

Introduction and Background Changes in maritime technology are occurring at a rapid pace. A wide range of new technologies are being introduced on ships that are either under construction or currently operational. A recent report entitled Minding the Helm (National Research Council, 1994) identified a number of navigation technologies that have the potential to improve shipping performance, such as electronic chart information display systems (ECDIS), integrated bridge designs, and automatic docking systems. The NRC report also points out that the introduction of new technology poses certain risks, including lack of familiarity by the mariner. One recommendation is that “training requirements for new technologies ... need to be determined and .... training provided prior to using technology.” This recommendation challenges traditional methods of training needs assessment, which focus on observable behavior and global job descriptions. Modern automated systems place much greater emphasis on the unobservable aspects of human judgment and decision making, and therefore require more refined methods of training needs assessment.

Identifying and Reducing Workforce Fatigue in Rapid Renewal Projects

This report describes a three-year research project and results performed as the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP) Project R03. The research scope involved studying factors associated with workforce fatigue and stress in the rapid renewal environment and the risks to worker safety and construction productivity. The study team developed an integrated fatigue management toolkit, including work scheduling and work practice guidance based on fatigue models, organizational practice guidance, fatigue management reference material, and training materials for managers and workers. This suite of products was prepared with the goal of integrating applicable components into existing safety management systems for highway projects, thereby reducing fatigue risk and increasing safety.