Thomas Fellmann

The agri-food sector in Ukraine: Current situation and market outlook until 2025

This report gives an overview on the Ukrainian agri-food sector and provides an outlook for the developments in agricultural markets for Ukraine, focussing on the main agricultural commodities. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in Ukraine has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework.

Potential impacts on agricultural commodity markets of an EU enlargement to Turkey

This report provides an in-depth model based quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of an EU enlargement to Turkey for agricultural commodity markets in Turkey and the EU. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in the EU candidate country Turkey has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework.

EU Enlargement to Turkey: Potential Effects on Turkey’s Agricultural Income and Markets

Turkey is officially recognized as a candidate country for EU membership and formal accession negotiations started in October 2005. Given the importance of Turkey’s agricultural sector, a Turkish accession to the EU could be expected to impact the agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. This paper provides an in-depth model-based quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of a Turkish EU-membership for agricultural income and commodity markets, focusing in particular on the effects in Turkey. Results show that the main impacts on Turkish agriculture would be a reduction in subsidies, producer prices, and quantities produced. A decrease in agricultural income, especially for Turkish crop producers (except for tobacco farmers), is also projected. In contrast, producers of sheep meat, broilers and dairy milk would benefit from EU accession due to lower feed costs. Moreover, the demand levels of most commodities are projected to increase due to lower prices, thus Turkish consumers are expected to gain from an accession to the EU.

Eurasian Grain Markets in an Uncertain World: A Focus on Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Impact on Global Food Security

Grain exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) help to improve global grain availability and, hence, food security. However, during the past 15 years, the availability of grain exports from the RUK countries has displayed high variability and has been repeatedly diminished by severe harvest failures. This chapter presents an outlook for RUK grain production and exports up to 2024, taking into account yield variability and possible harvest failures and their impact on national and international food security. For the analysis we use the stochastic version of the AGLINK-COSIMO model. Simulation results show that grain yields in RUK are a major source of uncertainty for international grain markets, especially as regards wheat. In particular by indicating substantial increases in world market prices owing to limited grain exports from RUK, the results highlight the importance of RUK’s grain production for world markets and global food security.

Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020 (Summary report)

Analysing stylised scenarios with economic modelling tools reveals complex relations, incentives and trade-offs of the different policy instruments, in particular regarding the environmental dimension. Marginal areas of the EU are most vulnerable to drastic policy changes.