Thomas Frederikse

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Significance Estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL) before the advent of satellite altimetry vary widely, mainly because of the uneven coverage and limited temporal sampling of tide gauge records, which track local sea level rather than the global mean. Here we introduce an approach that combines recent advances in solid Earth and geoid corrections for individual tide gauges with improved knowledge about their geographical representation of ocean internal variability. Our assessment yields smaller trends before 1990 than previously reported, leading to a larger overall acceleration; identifies three major explanations for differences with previous estimates; and reconciles observational GMSL estimates with the sum of individually modeled contributions from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 database for the entire 20th century. The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Closing the sea level budget on a regional scale: Trends and variability on the Northwestern European continental shelf

Abstract Long‐term trends and decadal variability of sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast have been studied over the period 1958–2014. We model the spatially nonuniform sea level and solid earth response to large‐scale ice melt and terrestrial water storage changes. GPS observations, corrected for the solid earth deformation, are used to estimate vertical land motion. We find a clear correlation between sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast and open ocean steric variability in the Bay of Biscay and west of Portugal, which is consistent with the presence of wind‐driven coastally trapped waves. The observed nodal cycle is consistent with tidal equilibrium. We are able to explain the observed sea level trend over the period 1958–2014 well within the standard error of the sum of all contributing processes, as well as the large majority of the observed decadal sea level variability.

The sea-level budget along the Northwest Atlantic coast : GIA, mass changes, and large-scale ocean dynamics

Sea-level rise and decadal variability along the northwestern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean are studied in a self-consistent framework that takes into account the effects of solid-earth deformation and geoid changes due to large-scale mass redistribution processes. Observations of sea and land level changes from tide gauges and GPS are compared to the cumulative effect of GIA, present-day mass redistribution, and ocean dynamics over a 50 year period (1965–2014). GIA explains the majority of the observed sea-level and land motion trends, as well as almost all interstation variability. Present-day mass redistribution resulting from ice melt and land hydrology causes both land uplift and sea-level rise in the region. We find a strong correlation between decadal steric variability in the Subpolar Gyre and coastal sea level, which is likely caused by variability in the Labrador Sea that is propagated southward. The steric signal explains the majority of the observed decadal sea-level variability and shows an upward trend and a significant acceleration, which are also found along the coast. The sum of all contributors explains the observed trends in both sea-level rise and vertical land motion in the region, as well as the decadal variability. The sum of contributors also explains the observed acceleration within confidence intervals. The sea-level acceleration coincides with an accelerating density decrease at high latitudes.

Estimating decadal variability in sea level from tide gauge records: An application to the North Sea

One of the primary observational data sets of sea level is represented by the tide gauge record. We propose a new method to estimate variability on decadal time scales from tide gauge data by using a state space formulation, which couples the direct observations to a predefined state space model by using a Kalman filter. The model consists of a time-varying trend and seasonal cycle, and variability induced by several physical processes, such as wind, atmospheric pressure changes and teleconnection patterns. This model has two advantages over the classical least-squares method that uses regression to explain variations due to known processes: a seasonal cycle with time-varying phase and amplitude can be estimated, and the trend is allowed to vary over time. This time-varying trend consists of a secular trend and low-frequency variability that is not explained by any other term in the model. As a test case, we have used tide gauge data from stations around the North Sea over the period 1980–2013. We compare a model that only estimates a trend with two models that also remove intra-annual variability: one by means of time series of wind stress and sea level pressure, and one by using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The last two models explain a large part of the variability, which significantly improves the accuracy of the estimated time-varying trend. The best results are obtained with the hydrodynamic model. We find a consistent low-frequency sea level signal in the North Sea, which can be linked to a steric signal over the northeastern part of the Atlantic.

A consistent sea-level reconstruction and its budget on basin and global scales over 1958-2014

Different sea level reconstructions show a spread in sea level rise over the last six decades and it is not yet certain whether the sum of contributors explains the reconstructed rise. Possible causes for this spread are, among others, vertical land motion at tide-gauge locations and the sparse sampling of the spatially variable ocean. To assess these open questions, reconstructed sea level and the role of the contributors are investigated on a local, basin, and global scale. High-latitude seas are excluded. Tide-gauge records are combined with observations of vertical land motion, independent estimates of ice-mass loss, terrestrial water storage, and barotropic atmospheric forcing in a self-consistent framework to reconstruct sea level changes on basin and global scales, which are compared to the estimated sum of contributing processes. For the first time, it is shown that for most basins the reconstructed sea level trend and acceleration can be explained by the sum of contributors, as well as a large part of the decadal variability. The sparsely sampled South Atlantic Ocean forms an exception. The global-mean sea level reconstruction shows a trend of 1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr-1 over 1958-2014 (1σ), compared to 1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr-1 for the sum of contributors. Over the same period, the reconstruction shows a positive acceleration of 0.07 ± 0.02 mm yr-2, which is also in agreement with the sum of contributors, which shows an acceleration of 0.07 ± 0.01 mm yr-2. Since 1993, both reconstructed sea level and the sum of contributors show good agreement with altimetry estimates.

Trends and interannual variability of mass and steric sea level in the Tropical Asian Seas

The mass and steric components of sea level changes have been separated in the Tropical Asian Seas (TAS) using a statistically optimal combination of Jason satellite altimetry, GRACE satellite gravimetry and ocean reanalyses. Using observational uncertainties, statistically optimally weighted time series for both components have been obtained in four regions within the TAS over the period January 2005 - December 2012. The mass and steric sea level variability is regressed with the first two principal components (PC1&2) of Pacific equatorial wind stress and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Sea level in the the South China Sea is not affected by any of the indices. Steric variability in the TAS is largest in the deep Banda and Celebes seas and is affected by both PCs and the DMI. Mass variability is largest on the continental shelves, which is primarily controlled by PC1. We argue that a water flux from the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean is the cause for mass variability in the TAS. The steric trends are about 2 mm yr−1 larger than the mass trends in the TAS. A signifcant part of the mass trend can be explained by the aforementioned indices and the nodal cycle. Trends obtained from fingerprints of mass redistribution are statistically equal to mass trends after subtracting the nodal cycle and the indices. Ultimately, the effect of omitting the TAS in global sea level budgets is estimated to be 0.3 mm yr−1.

A Kalman filter approach to realize the lowest astronomical tide surface

ABSTRACT In this paper , we present a novel Kalman filter approach to combine a hydrodynamic model-derived lowest astronomical tide (LAT) surface with tide gauge record-derived LAT values. In the approach, tidal water levels are assimilated into the model. As such, the combination is guided by the model physics. When validating the obtained “Kalman-filtered LAT realization” at all tide gauges, we obtained an overall root-mean-square (RMS) difference of 15.1 cm. At the tide gauges not used in the data assimilation, the RMS is 17.9 cm. We found that the assimilation reduces the overall RMS difference by ∼ 31% and ∼ 22%, respectively. In the Dutch North Sea and Wadden Sea, the RMS differences are 6.6 and 14.8 cm (all tide gauges), respectively. Furthermore, we address the problem of LAT realization in intertidal waters where LAT is not defined. We propose to replace LAT by pseudo-LAT, which we suggest to realize similarly as LAT except that all water level boundary conditions and assimilated tidal water levels have to be enlarged by a constant value that is removed afterward. Using this approach, we obtained a smooth reference surface for the Dutch Wadden Sea that fits LAT at the North Sea boundary within a few centimeters.

Ocean Bottom Deformation Due To Present-Day Mass Redistribution and Its Impact on Sea Level Observations

Present-day mass redistribution increases the total ocean mass and, on average, causes the ocean bottom to subside elastically. Therefore, barystatic sea-level rise is larger than the resulting global-mean geocentric sea-level rise,observed by satellite altimetry and GPS-corrected tide gauges. We use realistic estimates of mass redistribution from ice-mass loss and land-water storage to quantify the resulting ocean-bottom deformation and its effect on global and regional ocean-volume change estimates. Over 1993-2014, the resulting globally-averaged geocentric sea-level change is 8 percent smaller than the barystatic contribution. Over the altimetry domain, the difference is about 5 percent, and due to this effect, barystatic sea-level rise will be underestimated by more than 0.1 mm/y over 1993 -2014. Regional differences are of-ten larger: up to 1 mm/y over the Arctic Ocean and 0.4 mm/y in the South Pacific. Ocean bottom deformation should be considered when regional sea-level changes are observed in a geocentric reference frame.