Thomas J. Chermack

Improving decision-making with scenario planning

Abstract Decision makers struggle with four important contributors to decision failure, namely, 1) bounded rationality, 2) a tendency to consider only external variables, 3) the stickiness and friction of information and knowledge, and 4) mental models that include decision premises or policies. Whether independent or combined, these decision problems can form the ultimate in decision error—folly. The four problems in decision-making are reviewed in detail and scenario planning is posited as a tool for preventing the impact of each, ultimately with an aim of avoiding folly.

The role of constructivist learning in scenario planning

Abstract While many writings in the scenario planning literature point to aspects of the constructivist learning perspective, few have made the links explicit. This manuscript intends to expose the links between the process of scenario planning and the constructivist approach to learning and teaching. Thus, the contribution of this manuscript is that it identifies constructivism as a core theoretical domain that informs the process of scenario planning, and describes the ways in which the principles of constructivist learning are found in the scenario planning process.

The Use and Misuse of SWOT Analysis and Implications for HRD Professionals

Abstract This article explores the often-used strategy tool known as the SWOT analysis. The history of this tool is explained as well as common uses. The results of a literature review indicate a clear lack of empirical research on the topic and what little research has appeared is reviewed for the purposes of understanding how to further support and develop this tool. An integrative process for conducting SWOT analyses is provided with recommendations for optimizing SWOT in HRD contexts. Common misuses and pitfalls are also discussed along with suggested research for adding robustness to this classic strategic tool.

Definitions and Outcome Variables of Scenario Planning

Scenario planning has been receiving increased attention as a tool for considering the future in the midst of a rapidly changing business environment. This article examines available definitions of scenario planning, analyzes the espoused dependent variables of the process, sets forth an integrative definition, and supports the further development of the process as a useful and relevant tool for strategic human resource development.

Mental Models in Decision Making and Implications for Human Resource Development

The problem and the solution. Humans constantly construct mental models of reality, which include their assumptions, beliefs, experiences, and biases about the world. In fact, humans construct mental models of reality often without an awareness of it. In decision making, mental models include an individuals perception of a situation, variables in the system, alternative solutions, decision premises, and biases. Because mental models reflect the decision structure and are difficult to understand on a concrete level, this article aims to illustrate the influence of mental models on decision-making processes and, more important, how they can be made explicit and altered. In addition, this article suggests that working with mental models can be viewed as a developmental process and thus is within the domain of human resource development expertise.

Insights on Emerging Trends and the Future of Human Resource Development

The problem and the solution. The future holds countless challenges. The future cannot be known, and it must not be ignored. Understanding trends and indicators emerging today helps us to proactively think about potential future developments and positions us to constructively shape them. This article reports on a survey of 55 human resource development (HRD) and HRD-related practitioners and academics who identified trends, variables, and challenges that they believe are affecting and will affect the profession during the next 15 to 20 years.

A Theoretical Approach to the Organizational Knowledge Formation Process: Integrating the Concepts of Individual Learning and Learning Organization Culture:

The purpose of this article is to examine the link between individual learning processes and continuous organizational knowledge formation through an integrated literature review of these perspectives from both academic and practical viewpoints. In the current fierce economic environment, individual knowledge is regarded as the most valuable asset for competitive advantage. However, only when individual knowledge is accumulated and embedded into organizational culture as organizational knowledge can it be considered the critical factor for the promotion of performance improvement. In this research, two process-oriented factors—individual learning processes and organizational knowledge creation—were reviewed by means of theoretical and integrative analysis based on a lack of empirical research on the association between these two key factors and organizational performance improvement. The results of this research propose an integrated conceptual map for effective organizational performance improvement through organizational knowledge formation based on individual learning and organizational knowledge creation processes.

Integrative Literature Review: Human Capital Planning: A Review of Literature and Implications for Human Resource Development

The shift in the U.S. economy from a manufacturing powerhouse to a service-driven economy has placed a great emphasis on human capital planning within organizations in order to remain competitive in a new global economy. The link between critical business strategy and the successful implementation of strategy has been well documented in the literature. This article examines the literature surrounding human capital, human capital planning, and the implications for human resource development (HRD). The results of the review and synthesis of the literature are provided, and the implications for HRD scholars and practitioners are reported in detail. The research reports an in-depth justification and rationale for the incorporation of human capital planning into practice and research to determine the impact on HRD interventions and organizational performance through the use of a model and process for human capital planning.

A Theoretical Model of Scenario Planning

This article attempts to address a lack of theory-based models in scenario-planning practice. By using Dubin’s 1978 quantitative theory-building methodology, this article provides a theoretical model of scenario planning. To clarify, several critical elements of scenario planning are proposed as well as how they are related, in what environments they operate, and under what circumstances. In addition, some logical consequences are offered based on the constructed model. Finally, the implications of the model for human resource development research, practice, and theory are discussed.

Scenario Planning: Human Resource Development's Strategic Learning Tool

This article introduces the concepts of scenario planning and HRD. A discussion of the major areas of overlap is provided, the links are clarified in a strategic context, and clear opportunities for both researchers and practitioners are outlined.This article also provides a short overview of what is to come in this issue of ADHR.The authors carefully outline this issue and each of its major points for optimizing HRD professionals as they work to leverage scenario planning as HRDs strategic learning tool.