Thomas J. Wilbanks

Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient

All human–environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.

Global Change in Local Places: How Scale Matters

Relationships between local and global scales deserve more attention than they have received in the global change research enterprise to date. This paper examines how and why scale matters, drawing on six basic arguments; examines the current state of the top-down global change research paradigm to evaluate the fit across relevant scale domains between global structure and local agency; and reviews current research efforts to better link the local and global scales of attention and action.

The Effectiveness of Incentives for Residential Energy Conservation

Studies evaluating incentive programs for residential energy efficiency are examined to assess the roles of the size and type of incentive and of nonfinancial aspects of the programs and to infer lessons for policy. Larger incentives are found to increase participation, but marketing and implementation may be more important than incentive size: participation varies tenfold between programs offering identical financial incentives, with more participation in programs operated by trusted organizations and aggressively marketed by word of mouth and other attention-getting methods. Preference for grants versus loans varies with income and other household characteristics. Low-income households can be reached by strong incentives if marketing and implementation are designed carefully.

Hell and High Water: Practice-Relevant Adaptation Science

Adaptation requires science that analyzes decisions, identifies vulnerabilities, improves foresight, and develops options. Informing the extensive preparations needed to manage climate risks, avoid damages, and realize emerging opportunities is a grand challenge for climate change science. U.S. President Obama underscored the need for this research when he made climate preparedness a pillar of his climate policy. Adaptation improves preparedness and is one of two broad and increasingly important strategies (along with mitigation) for climate risk management. Adaptation is required in virtually all sectors of the economy and regions of the globe, for both built and natural systems (1).

Making the Global Local Responding to Climate Change Concerns from the Ground

Abstract Local communities play a key role in tackling the issue of global climate change. Are local places capable of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that they produce? If so, how can they be motivated to do so? If some aspects of the problem are beyond their means, what must be done to empower these communities? A study of four places in the United States is instructive for the rest of the nation-and the rest of the world.

Integrating climate change and sustainable development in a place-based context

Abstract This paper reports on investigations of two propositions. First, it is easy to overestimate the importance of climate change in the larger picture of sustainable development while at the same time underestimating the potential for climate change concerns to be a catalyst for progress toward sustainable development. Second, these imbalances in perceptions are more likely to be addressed effectively at a local scale than at a global or national scale.

Beyond Adapting to Climate Change: Embedding Adaptation in Responses to Multiple Threats and Stresses

Climate change impacts are already being experienced in every region of the United States and every part of the world—most severely in Arctic regions—and adaptation is needed now. Although climate change adaptation research is still in its infancy, significant adaptation planning in the United States has already begun in a number of localities. This article seeks to broaden the adaptation effort by integrating it with broader frameworks of hazards research, sustainability science, and community and regional resilience. To extend the range of experience, we draw from ongoing case studies in the Southeastern United States and the environmental history of New Orleans to consider the multiple threats and stresses that all communities and regions experience. Embedding climate adaptation in responses to multiple threats and stresses helps us to understand climate change impacts, themselves often products of multiple stresses, to achieve community acceptance of needed adaptations as cobenefits of addressing multiple threats, and to mainstream the process of climate adaptation through the larger envelope of social relationships, communication channels, and broad-based awareness of needs for risk management that accompany community resilience.

Possible Responses to Global Climate Change: Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation

Abstract How do we as cities, nations, and global communities best respond to global climate change? Mitigation+urtailing greenhouse gas emissions- dominated initial discussions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and international conferences on global climate change. Now that climate change has become a clear and present danger, however, adaptation-lessening the harm and maximizing the benefits of climate change-has received more attention. Analysis reveals that integrating the two responses, though challenging, may be the most effective approach.

UNDERSTANDING CLIMATIC IMPACTS, VULNERABILITIES, AND ADAPTATION IN THE UNITED STATES: BUILDING A CAPACITY FOR ASSESSMENT

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.

Scale and sustainability

Geographical scale is a factor in interactions between climate change and sustainable development, because of varying spatial dynamics of key processes and because of varying scales at which decision-making is focused. In a world where the meaning of ‘global’ and ‘local’ is being reshaped by technological and social change, a challenge tosustainable development is realizing the impressive, but often elusive, potentials for climate-change-related actions at different scales to be complementary and reinforcing. Climate change adaptation is suggested as an example.